Giants vs Rams DraftKings Showdown Picks: Monday Night Football Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Giants vs Rams DraftKings Showdown?
Jaxson Dart carries the highest SPAGS model projection in Monday Night Football's Giants at Rams DraftKings Showdown slate: 17.9 DraftKings points at a $9,800 FLEX salary, or 26.8 at captain for $14,700. Jaxson Dart holds the largest share of simulated winning-lineup credit at 73% across 100,000 simulations, and Jaxson Dart holds the largest captain share at 15.5%.
Behind Dart, the next four projections are Matthew Stafford (17.6, $10,000), Kyren Williams (16.5, $9,600), Davante Adams (16.1, $8,800) and Malik Nabers (14.5, $9,000). The Rams are a 6.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 47.5, with implied team totals of 27 for the Rams and 20.5 for the Giants.
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 21, 7:24 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 100,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
MNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Jaxson Dart, NYG QB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Jaxson Dart holds 15.5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $14,700 and the 17.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 26.8 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 5.9 rushing attempts. Across 100,000 simulations Dart averaged 17.9 points with a simulated floor of 6.9 and a ceiling of 32.5. He holds 73% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 15.5% as the captain and 57.0% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Kyren Williams, LAR RB ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Kyren Williams holds 15.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,400 and the 16.5-point SPAGS model projection becomes 24.8 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 15.4 carries and 2.9 targets. The current projection of 16.5 compares with a saved model baseline of 15.1. Across 100,000 simulations Williams averaged 16.6 points with a simulated floor of 6.4 and a ceiling of 31.9. He holds 61% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 15.3% as the captain and 45.4% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Davante Adams, LAR WR ($8,800 FLEX / $13,200 CPT)
Davante Adams holds 15.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $13,200 and the 16.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 24.1 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 8.8 targets on 26.9 routes. The current projection of 16.1 compares with a saved model baseline of 11.2. Across 100,000 simulations Adams averaged 16.1 points with a simulated floor of 5.4 and a ceiling of 33.2. He holds 57% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 15.0% as the captain and 42.4% in a FLEX spot.
Top FLEX projections for Giants vs Rams
Matthew Stafford, LAR QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Matthew Stafford carries the 2nd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 17.6 DraftKings points for a $10,000 FLEX salary ($15,000 at captain). Across 100,000 simulations Stafford averaged 17.7 points with a simulated floor of 7.0 and a ceiling of 31.9. He holds 70% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 14.0% as the captain and 55.9% in a FLEX spot.
Malik Nabers, NYG WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Malik Nabers carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 14.5 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model gives him 9.2 targets on 27.8 routes. The current projection of 14.5 compares with a saved model baseline of 10.7. Across 100,000 simulations Nabers averaged 14.5 points with a simulated floor of 5.0 and a ceiling of 30.0. He holds 50% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.9% as the captain and 40.1% in a FLEX spot.
Cam Skattebo, NYG RB ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Cam Skattebo carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 14.4 DraftKings points for a $9,400 FLEX salary ($14,100 at captain). The model gives him 13.6 carries and 3.8 targets. The current projection of 14.4 compares with a saved model baseline of 12.9. Across 100,000 simulations Skattebo averaged 14.3 points with a simulated floor of 5.3 and a ceiling of 27.4. He holds 50% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.0% as the captain and 41.8% in a FLEX spot.
Harrison Mevis, LAR K ($5,000 FLEX / $7,500 CPT)
Harrison Mevis carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.3 DraftKings points for a $5,000 FLEX salary ($7,500 at captain). Across 100,000 simulations Mevis averaged 9.3 points with a simulated floor of 3.0 and a ceiling of 18.0. He holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.7% as the captain and 25.9% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Xavier Smith, LAR WR ($200 FLEX / $300 CPT)
Xavier Smith projects for 6.3 DraftKings points at a $200 FLEX salary, 31.35 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 3.4 targets on 18.4 routes. The current projection of 6.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 2.2. Across 100,000 simulations Smith averaged 6.3 points with a simulated floor of 1.2 and a ceiling of 16.3. He holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.6% as the captain and 14.5% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Konata Mumpfield, LAR WR ($1,000 FLEX / $1,500 CPT)
Konata Mumpfield projects for 4.7 DraftKings points at a $1,000 FLEX salary, 4.67 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 3.0 targets on 20.0 routes. The current projection of 4.7 compares with a saved model baseline of 1.4. Across 100,000 simulations Mumpfield averaged 4.7 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 14.6. He holds 10% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.6% as the captain and 9.0% in a FLEX spot.
Giants vs Rams Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | QB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 17.9 | 73% | 15.5% |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 17.6 | 70% | 14.0% |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 16.5 | 61% | 15.3% |
| Davante Adams | LAR | WR | $8,800 | $13,200 | 16.1 | 57% | 15.0% |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 14.5 | 50% | 9.9% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 14.4 | 50% | 8.0% |
| Harrison Mevis | LAR | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 9.3 | 28% | 1.7% |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 8.6 | 20% | 1.8% |
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