Prediction Markets: A Plain Guide to Polymarket US
Polymarket US's help center says its event contracts settle "at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not," and that prices reflect how likely traders think the outcome is. Polymarket US is CFTC-regulated. These guides answer one question each, from how prices work to how withdrawals and referral codes work, using Polymarket US's own help pages.
Polymarket Promo Code SPLASH: Deposit $10, Get $25
PolymarketPartner · Paid partnership with Polymarket
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/latest/rulebook for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
- Referral terms: code SPLASH is for first-time Polymarket US users who sign up with it, finish onboarding, agree to the Polymarket US Rulebook, deposit at least $10 and make at least $1 of trades within 90 days of using the code. The welcome offer's own deposit window is shorter: 7 days.
Why we wrote these
Splash Play covers DFS and sports data, and our audience asks a steady stream of questions about Polymarket US: what a contract is, what the price means, how money goes in and out. Each guide below answers one of those questions completely and links to the public pages it relies on, mostly Polymarket US's own help center and the CFTC's page on event contracts.
We fetched every source on October 20, 2026. When Polymarket US changes a rule, a page here can be out of date until we re-check it, so the dates on each page tell you when it was last verified. Where a source didn't say something, we left it out rather than guess. That's why, for example, you won't find a state list: Polymarket US doesn't publish one on its public help pages.
All guides
- What Is a Prediction Market?: What the CFTC and Polymarket US say about event contracts, settlement and prices.
- Is Polymarket US Legal in the United States?: What CFTC regulation means for Polymarket US, and why availability still varies by jurisdiction.
- How Polymarket US Prices Work: Polymarket US's own words on how prices map to probabilities, and on bids, asks and the spread.
- Polymarket US Deposit Methods, Limits and Timing: Every funding method Polymarket US lists, with its daily limits and clearing times.
- How to Withdraw Money From Polymarket US: The payout methods, timing, same-method and first-in-first-out rules, and why promo credits stay put.
- Polymarket US Fees, Explained With Examples: The taker fee formula, Polymarket US's worked examples, rounding, and the rebate tiers.
- Polymarket US Identity Verification: What It Asks For: The details Polymarket US asks for at sign-up, why the check exists, and what happens if it stalls.
- Polymarket Referral Code vs Promo Code: How a referral code (a username) differs from a promo code, and the rules that both share.
Where to start
New to the idea: read what a prediction market is, then how Polymarket US prices work. The first collects what the CFTC and Polymarket US say about event contracts and settlement. The second quotes Polymarket US on how a price maps to a probability and how its order book works.
Thinking about an account: identity verification explains what the sign-up asks for, deposit methods lists every way to fund it, and withdrawals covers the rules for taking money out. Read the withdrawal rules before your first deposit, because the method you deposit with is where your money comes back.
Have a code question: the referral code vs promo code guide explains the two programs. For our own code, the Polymarket promo code page has the new-user offer.
How we keep these pages honest
Splash Play has a paid partnership with Polymarket, disclosed on every page as PolymarketPartner. That relationship is why these guides exist, so we hold them to a few rules. Every fact about Polymarket US comes from a public page we name. No page tells you what to buy or sell, or says a price is right or wrong. Lists of games or markets, when we publish them, are information only and not a view on any market. The required risk line appears on every page: trading is risky and 100 percent loss can occur.
Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC, and the CFTC's own customer page says you are entitled to clear information about risks, fees and how settlement is decided. These guides try to put that information in one place, with links back to where it came from.
A few terms you'll see on every page
- Event contract: Polymarket US calls event contracts "yes/no trades on whether something will happen."
- Price: Polymarket US's market-data page says the price "represents the market's collective belief about how likely an outcome is."
- Order book: the same page lists bids as buy orders, "the prices traders are willing to pay," and asks as sell orders, "the prices traders are willing to accept."
- Settlement: Polymarket US's settlement page says winning contracts settle at $1.00 and losing contracts at $0.00.
- Promo credit: a trading credit from a Polymarket US incentive program. It can be traded but not withdrawn as cash.
If you already know the basics and want to open an account with the new-user offer, the Polymarket promo code SPLASH page has the steps.
FAQ
Sources
- CFTC: Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts: https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets
- Polymarket US: Learn home: https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/home
- Polymarket US: What is Polymarket US?: https://docs.polymarket.us/getting-started/what-is-polymarket-us
- Polymarket US: Prices & Market Data: https://docs.polymarket.us/concepts/market-data
- Polymarket US: Market Settlement: https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/markets/contract-settlement
All sources read October 20, 2026.
PolymarketPartner · Paid partnership with Polymarket. Polymarket US is for people 18 or older. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to make any trade, and any list of markets is information only and not a view on any market.