Colts vs Chiefs DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Colts vs Chiefs DraftKings Showdown?
Kenneth Walker III carries the highest SPAGS model projection in Sunday Night Football's Colts at Chiefs DraftKings Showdown slate: 20.4 DraftKings points at a $10,600 FLEX salary, or 30.7 at captain for $15,900. Kenneth Walker III holds the largest share of simulated winning-lineup credit at 59% across 100,000 simulations, and Kenneth Walker III holds the largest captain share at 18.7%.
Behind Walker, the next four projections are Patrick Mahomes (18.4, $10,000), Jonathan Taylor (18.3, $11,000), Rashee Rice (17.1, $9,400) and Daniel Jones (16.1, $9,200). Kansas City is a 6-point favorite in a game totaled at 46.5, with implied team totals of 26.25 for the Chiefs and 20.25 for the Colts.
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 20, 7:55 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 100,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Kenneth Walker III, KC RB ($10,600 FLEX / $15,900 CPT)
Kenneth Walker III holds 18.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $15,900 and the 20.4-point SPAGS model projection becomes 30.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 17.9 carries and 3.6 targets. The current projection of 20.4 compares with a saved model baseline of 18.1. Across 100,000 simulations Walker averaged 20.4 points with a simulated floor of 7.8 and a ceiling of 40.5. He holds 59% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 18.7% as the captain and 40.3% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Rashee Rice, KC WR ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Rashee Rice holds 12.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,100 and the 17.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 25.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 8.9 targets on 30.6 routes. The current projection of 17.1 compares with a saved model baseline of 16.6. Across 100,000 simulations Rice averaged 17.1 points with a simulated floor of 5.8 and a ceiling of 35.4. He holds 48% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.3% as the captain and 36.1% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Jonathan Taylor, IND RB ($11,000 FLEX / $16,500 CPT)
Jonathan Taylor holds 11.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $16,500 and the 18.3-point SPAGS model projection becomes 27.5 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 20.8 carries and 1.5 targets. Across 100,000 simulations Taylor averaged 18.3 points with a simulated floor of 7.2 and a ceiling of 35.5. He holds 49% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.3% as the captain and 37.7% in a FLEX spot.
Top FLEX projections for Colts vs Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes, KC QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Patrick Mahomes carries the 2nd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 18.4 DraftKings points for a $10,000 FLEX salary ($15,000 at captain). The model includes 3.4 rushing attempts. Across 100,000 simulations Mahomes averaged 18.5 points with a simulated floor of 7.4 and a ceiling of 33.4. He holds 58% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.1% as the captain and 47.9% in a FLEX spot.
Daniel Jones, IND QB ($9,200 FLEX / $13,800 CPT)
Daniel Jones carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.1 DraftKings points for a $9,200 FLEX salary ($13,800 at captain). Across 100,000 simulations Jones averaged 16.1 points with a simulated floor of 6.3 and a ceiling of 29.7. He holds 49% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.6% as the captain and 43.6% in a FLEX spot.
Josh Downs, IND WR ($6,600 FLEX / $9,900 CPT)
Josh Downs carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 13.1 DraftKings points for a $6,600 FLEX salary ($9,900 at captain). The model gives him 8.1 targets on 34.1 routes. The current projection of 13.1 compares with a saved model baseline of 11.7. Across 100,000 simulations Downs averaged 13.1 points with a simulated floor of 4.1 and a ceiling of 27.1. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.4% as the captain and 35.0% in a FLEX spot.
Keenan Allen, IND WR ($5,600 FLEX / $8,400 CPT)
Keenan Allen carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.3 DraftKings points for a $5,600 FLEX salary ($8,400 at captain). The model gives him 7.7 targets on 28.7 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Allen averaged 12.3 points with a simulated floor of 4.4 and a ceiling of 25.7. He holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.2% as the captain and 37.0% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Emmett Johnson, KC RB ($3,600 FLEX / $5,400 CPT)
Emmett Johnson projects for 6.8 DraftKings points at a $3,600 FLEX salary, 1.89 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 5.8 carries and 1.7 targets. The current projection of 6.8 compares with a saved model baseline of 7.6. Across 100,000 simulations Johnson averaged 6.8 points with a simulated floor of 1.0 and a ceiling of 16.1. He holds 18% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.9% as the captain and 16.2% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Chiefs, KC DST ($4,200 FLEX / $6,300 CPT)
Chiefs projects for 7.8 DraftKings points at a $4,200 FLEX salary, 1.85 projected points per $1,000. Across 100,000 simulations Chiefs averaged 7.8 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 21.4. It holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.3% as the captain and 26.0% in a FLEX spot.
Colts vs Chiefs Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $10,600 | $15,900 | 20.4 | 59% | 18.7% |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 18.4 | 58% | 10.1% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | $11,000 | $16,500 | 18.3 | 49% | 11.3% |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | $9,400 | $14,100 | 17.1 | 48% | 12.3% |
| Daniel Jones | IND | QB | $9,200 | $13,800 | 16.1 | 49% | 5.6% |
| Josh Downs | IND | WR | $6,600 | $9,900 | 13.1 | 42% | 7.4% |
| Keenan Allen | IND | WR | $5,600 | $8,400 | 12.3 | 44% | 7.2% |
| Tyler Warren | IND | TE | $7,200 | $10,800 | 12.2 | 35% | 6.7% |
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