Colts vs Chiefs DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football Captains, Projections and Sim Plays

DraftKings Showdown · Sunday Night Football, September 20 · NFL Week 2 · By Chris Spags · Published September 19, 2026 · Numbers as of September 19, 3:36 PM ET

Jonathan Taylor carries the highest SPAGS model projection in Sunday Night Football's Colts at Chiefs DraftKings Showdown slate: 20.4 DraftKings points at an $11,000 FLEX salary, or 30.7 at captain for $16,500. Patrick Mahomes holds the largest share of simulated winning-lineup credit at 61% across 10,000 simulations, and Jonathan Taylor holds the largest captain share at 16.4%.

Behind Taylor, the next four projections are Patrick Mahomes (18.9, $10,000), Kenneth Walker III (18.6, $10,600), Rashee Rice (16.6, $9,400) and Daniel Jones (16.2, $9,200). Kansas City is a 6-point favorite in a game totaled at 46.5, with implied team totals of 26.25 for the Chiefs and 20.25 for the Colts.

Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 19, 3:36 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.

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SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with

Captain: Jonathan Taylor, IND RB ($11,000 FLEX / $16,500 CPT)

Jonathan Taylor holds 16.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $16,500 and the 20.4-point SPAGS model projection becomes 30.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 21.1 carries and 2.7 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Taylor averaged 20.3 points with a simulated floor of 7.6 and a ceiling of 39.2. He holds 58% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 16.4% as the captain and 41.5% in a FLEX spot.

Captain: Kenneth Walker III, KC RB ($10,600 FLEX / $15,900 CPT)

Kenneth Walker III holds 14.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,900 and the 18.6-point SPAGS model projection becomes 27.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 16.7 carries and 2.9 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Walker averaged 18.6 points with a simulated floor of 7.0 and a ceiling of 36.1. He holds 53% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 14.1% as the captain and 38.5% in a FLEX spot.

Captain: Patrick Mahomes, KC QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)

Patrick Mahomes holds 12.2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,000 and the 18.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 28.3 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 3.9 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Mahomes averaged 18.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.6 and a ceiling of 34.4. He holds 61% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.2% as the captain and 49.0% in a FLEX spot.

Top FLEX projections for Colts vs Chiefs

Rashee Rice, KC WR ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)

Rashee Rice carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.6 DraftKings points for a $9,400 FLEX salary ($14,100 at captain). The model gives him 8.5 targets on 29.2 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Rice averaged 16.6 points with a simulated floor of 5.6 and a ceiling of 34.5. He holds 47% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.6% as the captain and 35.2% in a FLEX spot.

Daniel Jones, IND QB ($9,200 FLEX / $13,800 CPT)

Daniel Jones carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.2 DraftKings points for a $9,200 FLEX salary ($13,800 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Jones averaged 16.2 points with a simulated floor of 6.3 and a ceiling of 29.4. He holds 51% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.7% as the captain and 44.6% in a FLEX spot.

Keenan Allen, IND WR ($5,600 FLEX / $8,400 CPT)

Keenan Allen carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.6 DraftKings points for a $5,600 FLEX salary ($8,400 at captain). The model gives him 7.7 targets on 28.7 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Allen averaged 12.5 points with a simulated floor of 4.3 and a ceiling of 26.3. He holds 45% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.9% as the captain and 37.3% in a FLEX spot.

Tyler Warren, IND TE ($7,200 FLEX / $10,800 CPT)

Tyler Warren carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.3 DraftKings points for a $7,200 FLEX salary ($10,800 at captain). The model gives him 7.1 targets on 30.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Warren averaged 12.3 points with a simulated floor of 3.4 and a ceiling of 28.3. He holds 35% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.2% as the captain and 28.2% in a FLEX spot.

Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under

Value: Emmett Johnson, KC RB ($3,600 FLEX / $5,400 CPT)

Emmett Johnson projects for 7.8 DraftKings points at a $3,600 FLEX salary, 2.15 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 6.8 carries and 1.9 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Johnson averaged 7.8 points with a simulated floor of 1.2 and a ceiling of 17.9. He holds 23% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 2.7% as the captain and 20.1% in a FLEX spot.

Value: Chiefs, KC DST ($4,200 FLEX / $6,300 CPT)

Chiefs projects for 7.8 DraftKings points at a $4,200 FLEX salary, 1.85 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Chiefs averaged 8.0 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 21.3. It holds 31% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.3% as the captain and 26.3% in a FLEX spot.

Colts vs Chiefs Showdown projections and sim results

The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.