NFL DFS Week 2 Picks: Top DraftKings Projections, Values and Sim Plays

DraftKings main slate · Sunday, September 20 · 13 games · By Chris Spags · Published September 19, 2026 · Numbers as of September 19, 3:27 PM ET

Bijan Robinson carries the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 2 DraftKings main slate: 25.1 DraftKings points at $8,200. He also holds 38% of the simulated winning-lineup credit across 10,000 simulations, more than any other player on the slate, with Derrick Henry second at 27% for $7,200.

Behind Robinson, the model's next four projections are Christian McCaffrey (22.3, $8,000), Derrick Henry (22.0, $7,200), De'Von Achane (20.8, $6,700) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (19.4, $8,100). De'Von Achane returns the most per dollar of that group at 3.10 projected points per $1,000. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the wide receivers at 19.4 for $8,100, Brock Purdy leads the quarterbacks at 18.8 for $6,200, and Trey McBride leads the tight ends at 16.1 for $6,900.

The 13-game slate runs from a 50.5-point total in WAS at DAL down to 39.5 in PHI at TEN. Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 19, 3:27 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup credit comes from 10,000 simulations of the contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th.

Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.

Top 5 SPAGS model projections for Week 2 (DraftKings)

Quarterbacks: Week 2 DraftKings projections

Brock Purdy, SF vs MIA ($6,200)

Brock Purdy carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 18.8 DraftKings points at $6,200. That is 0.1 points clear of Drake Maye. The model includes 3.5 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 3.02 projected points per $1,000, 9th of 20 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Purdy averaged 18.8 points with a simulated floor of 6.9 and a ceiling of 34.0, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. San Francisco is a 13.5-point favorite at home against Miami, with an implied team total of 29 in a game totaled at 44.5.

Drake Maye, NE vs PIT ($6,100)

Drake Maye projects 2nd at the position with 18.7 DraftKings points at $6,100. The model includes 5.0 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 3.06 projected points per $1,000, 8th of 20 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Maye averaged 18.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.7 and a ceiling of 33.6, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. New England is a 5.5-point favorite at home against Pittsburgh, with an implied team total of 23.5 in a game totaled at 41.5.

Value: Carson Wentz, MIN at CHI ($4,600)

Carson Wentz projects for 15.8 DraftKings points at $4,600, which works out to 3.44 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 20 quarterbacks the model projects for 15 or more points. Across 10,000 simulations Wentz averaged 15.8 points with a simulated floor of 6.0 and a ceiling of 28.8, and he holds 4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Minnesota is a 4.5-point underdog on the road against Chicago, with an implied team total of 21.5 in a game totaled at 47.5.

Running backs: Week 2 DraftKings projections

Bijan Robinson, ATL vs CAR ($8,200)

Bijan Robinson carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 25.1 DraftKings points at $8,200, the highest on the entire main slate. That is 2.7 points clear of Christian McCaffrey. The model gives him 18.7 carries and 6.7 targets. The salary works out to 3.06 projected points per $1,000, 3rd of 33 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Robinson averaged 25.1 points with a simulated floor of 9.1 and a ceiling of 48.9, and he holds 38% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Atlanta is a 2.5-point underdog at home against Carolina, with an implied team total of 20.5 in a game totaled at 43.5.

Christian McCaffrey, SF vs MIA ($8,000)

Christian McCaffrey projects 2nd at the position with 22.3 DraftKings points at $8,000, 2nd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 15.5 carries and 5.3 targets. The current projection of 22.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 19.6. The salary works out to 2.79 projected points per $1,000, 6th of 33 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McCaffrey averaged 22.2 points with a simulated floor of 8.6 and a ceiling of 43.2, and he holds 25% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. San Francisco is a 13.5-point favorite at home against Miami, with an implied team total of 29 in a game totaled at 44.5.

Derrick Henry, BAL vs NO ($7,200)

Derrick Henry projects 3rd at the position with 22.0 DraftKings points at $7,200, 3rd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 21.6 carries and 1.5 targets. The current projection of 22.0 compares with a saved model baseline of 21.5. The salary works out to 3.05 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 33 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Henry averaged 22.0 points with a simulated floor of 8.4 and a ceiling of 42.5, and he holds 27% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Baltimore is an 8.5-point favorite at home against New Orleans, with an implied team total of 27.5 in a game totaled at 46.5.

Value: Aaron Jones Sr., MIN at CHI ($5,100)

Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 17.3 DraftKings points at $5,100, which works out to 3.38 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 33 running backs the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 16.4 carries and 3.3 targets. The current projection of 17.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 12.0. Across 10,000 simulations Jones averaged 17.3 points with a simulated floor of 6.5 and a ceiling of 33.9, and he holds 21% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Minnesota is a 4.5-point underdog on the road against Chicago, with an implied team total of 21.5 in a game totaled at 47.5.

Wide receivers: Week 2 DraftKings projections

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at ARI ($8,100)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 19.4 DraftKings points at $8,100, the 5th-highest on the entire main slate. That is 0.1 points clear of Ja'Marr Chase. The model gives him 9.7 targets on 27.7 routes. The current projection of 19.4 compares with a saved model baseline of 20.6. The salary works out to 2.40 projected points per $1,000, 10th of 38 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 19.4 points with a simulated floor of 6.2 and a ceiling of 40.5, and he holds 17% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 3.5-point favorite on the road against Arizona, with an implied team total of 22 in a game totaled at 40.5.

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN at HOU ($7,600)

Ja'Marr Chase projects 2nd at the position with 19.3 DraftKings points at $7,600. The model gives him 10.8 targets on 37.5 routes. The salary works out to 2.54 projected points per $1,000, 6th of 38 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Chase averaged 19.0 points with a simulated floor of 6.1 and a ceiling of 40.1, and he holds 20% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cincinnati is a 2.5-point underdog on the road against Houston, with an implied team total of 21.5 in a game totaled at 45.5.

Chris Olave, NO at BAL ($7,200)

Chris Olave projects 3rd at the position with 17.0 DraftKings points at $7,200. The model gives him 10.1 targets on 36.7 routes. The current projection of 17.0 compares with a saved model baseline of 16.5. The salary works out to 2.36 projected points per $1,000, 12th of 38 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Olave averaged 17.0 points with a simulated floor of 5.8 and a ceiling of 35.7, and he holds 12% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. New Orleans is an 8.5-point underdog on the road against Baltimore, with an implied team total of 19 in a game totaled at 46.5.

Value: DeMario Douglas, NE vs PIT ($3,800)

DeMario Douglas projects for 12.8 DraftKings points at $3,800, which works out to 3.37 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 38 wide receivers the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 6.9 targets on 30.3 routes. The current projection of 12.8 compares with a saved model baseline of 11.4. Across 10,000 simulations Douglas averaged 12.8 points with a simulated floor of 4.4 and a ceiling of 26.1, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. New England is a 5.5-point favorite at home against Pittsburgh, with an implied team total of 23.5 in a game totaled at 41.5.

Tight ends: Week 2 DraftKings projections

Trey McBride, ARI vs SEA ($6,900)

Trey McBride carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 16.1 DraftKings points at $6,900. That is 2.7 points clear of Harold Fannin Jr.. The model gives him 9.5 targets on 37.0 routes. The salary works out to 2.33 projected points per $1,000, 12th of 21 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McBride averaged 16.1 points with a simulated floor of 4.3 and a ceiling of 37.4, and he holds 11% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 3.5-point underdog at home against Seattle, with an implied team total of 18.5 in a game totaled at 40.5.

Harold Fannin Jr., CLE at TB ($4,100)

Harold Fannin Jr. projects 2nd at the position with 13.4 DraftKings points at $4,100. The model gives him 8.0 targets on 28.4 routes. The salary works out to 3.26 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 21 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Fannin averaged 13.4 points with a simulated floor of 3.7 and a ceiling of 30.8, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cleveland is an 8.5-point underdog on the road against Tampa Bay, with an implied team total of 16.5 in a game totaled at 41.5.

Value: Michael Mayer, LV at LAC ($3,600)

Michael Mayer projects for 13.4 DraftKings points at $3,600, which works out to 3.72 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 21 tight ends the model projects for 7 or more points. The model gives him 8.3 targets on 24.9 routes. The current projection of 13.4 compares with a saved model baseline of 11.8. Across 10,000 simulations Mayer averaged 13.2 points with a simulated floor of 3.3 and a ceiling of 31.2, and he holds 20% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Las Vegas is a 6.5-point underdog on the road against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 18.5 in a game totaled at 43.5.

Defenses: Week 2 DraftKings projections

Eagles, PHI at TEN ($3,700)

Eagles carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 9.3 DraftKings points at $3,700. That is 0.0 points clear of Seahawks. The salary works out to 2.52 projected points per $1,000, 12th of 18 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Eagles averaged 9.5 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 25.5, and it holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Philadelphia is a 7-point favorite on the road against Tennessee, with an implied team total of 23.25 in a game totaled at 39.5.

Value: Panthers, CAR at ATL ($2,700)

Panthers projects for 7.7 DraftKings points at $2,700, which works out to 2.86 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 18 defenses the model projects for 6 or more points. Across 10,000 simulations Panthers averaged 7.8 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 21.0, and it holds 4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite on the road against Atlanta, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 43.5.

The sim's favorite plays

The main slate was simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field. These five players hold the most winning-lineup credit.

Week 2 game totals, spreads and implied points

WAS at DAL carries the highest total on the slate at 50.5. San Francisco is the biggest favorite, laying 13.5 against Miami. The three highest implied team totals belong to SF (29), BAL (27.5) and DAL (27). Lines are as of September 19, 3:27 PM ET and move before lock.