NFL DFS Week 2 Picks: Top DraftKings Projections, Values and Sim Plays
Who are the top DraftKings NFL DFS plays in Week 2?
Christian McCaffrey carries the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 2 DraftKings main slate: 23.5 DraftKings points at $8,000. He holds 31% of the simulated winning-lineup credit across 10,000 simulations. Bijan Robinson holds the largest share at 32% for $8,200.
Behind McCaffrey, the model's next four projections are Bijan Robinson (23.2, $8,200), Derrick Henry (21.1, $7,200), Chase Brown (19.4, $6,900) and Ja'Marr Chase (19.3, $7,600). Christian McCaffrey returns the most per dollar of that group at 2.94 projected points per $1,000. Ja'Marr Chase leads the wide receivers at 19.3 for $7,600, Brock Purdy leads the quarterbacks at 18.8 for $6,200, and Trey McBride leads the tight ends at 16.0 for $6,900.
The 13-game slate runs from a 50.5-point total in WAS at DAL down to 39.5 in PHI at TEN. Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 20, 6:43 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup credit comes from 10,000 simulations of the contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
Top 5 SPAGS model projections for Week 2 (DraftKings)
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS model proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $8,000 | 23.5 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $8,200 | 23.2 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $7,200 | 21.1 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | $6,900 | 19.4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | $7,600 | 19.3 |
Quarterbacks: Week 2 DraftKings projections
Brock Purdy, SF vs MIA ($6,200)
Brock Purdy carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 18.8 DraftKings points at $6,200. That is 0.1 points clear of Drake Maye. The model includes 3.5 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 3.02 projected points per $1,000, 10th of 21 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Purdy averaged 18.6 points with a simulated floor of 7.4 and a ceiling of 34.2, and he holds 8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. San Francisco is a 13.5-point favorite at home against Miami, with an implied team total of 29 in a game totaled at 44.5.
Drake Maye, NE vs PIT ($6,100)
Drake Maye projects 2nd at the position with 18.7 DraftKings points at $6,100. The model includes 5.0 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 3.06 projected points per $1,000, 9th of 21 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Maye averaged 18.8 points with a simulated floor of 7.1 and a ceiling of 33.8, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. New England is a 5.5-point favorite at home against Pittsburgh, with an implied team total of 23.5 in a game totaled at 41.5.
Value: Drew Lock, SEA at ARI ($4,900)
Drew Lock projects for 17.4 DraftKings points at $4,900, which works out to 3.56 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 21 quarterbacks the model projects for 15 or more points. The model includes 5.7 rushing attempts. The current projection of 17.4 compares with a saved model baseline of 0.0. Across 10,000 simulations Lock averaged 17.4 points with a simulated floor of 6.9 and a ceiling of 32.6, and he holds 4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 3.5-point favorite on the road against Arizona, with an implied team total of 22.5 in a game totaled at 41.5.
Running backs: Week 2 DraftKings projections
Christian McCaffrey, SF vs MIA ($8,000)
Christian McCaffrey carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 23.5 DraftKings points at $8,000, the highest on the entire main slate. That is 0.3 points clear of Bijan Robinson. The model gives him 17.2 carries and 5.3 targets. The current projection of 23.5 compares with a saved model baseline of 20.4. The salary works out to 2.94 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 33 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McCaffrey averaged 23.5 points with a simulated floor of 8.7 and a ceiling of 46.0, and he holds 31% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. San Francisco is a 13.5-point favorite at home against Miami, with an implied team total of 29 in a game totaled at 44.5.
Bijan Robinson, ATL vs CAR ($8,200)
Bijan Robinson projects 2nd at the position with 23.2 DraftKings points at $8,200, 2nd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 17.6 carries and 6.0 targets. The salary works out to 2.83 projected points per $1,000, 5th of 33 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Robinson averaged 23.2 points with a simulated floor of 8.9 and a ceiling of 45.0, and he holds 32% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Atlanta is a 2.5-point underdog at home against Carolina, with an implied team total of 20.5 in a game totaled at 43.5.
Derrick Henry, BAL vs NO ($7,200)
Derrick Henry projects 3rd at the position with 21.1 DraftKings points at $7,200, 3rd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 21.1 carries and 1.4 targets. The salary works out to 2.94 projected points per $1,000, 2nd of 33 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Henry averaged 20.9 points with a simulated floor of 8.2 and a ceiling of 40.7, and he holds 24% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Baltimore is an 8.5-point favorite at home against New Orleans, with an implied team total of 27 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Value: J.K. Dobbins, DEN vs JAX ($5,000)
J.K. Dobbins projects for 14.3 DraftKings points at $5,000, which works out to 2.87 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 33 running backs the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 16.1 carries and 1.4 targets. The current projection of 14.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 10.2. Across 10,000 simulations Dobbins averaged 14.4 points with a simulated floor of 5.3 and a ceiling of 28.2, and he holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Denver is a 2.5-point favorite at home against Jacksonville, with an implied team total of 24 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Wide receivers: Week 2 DraftKings projections
Ja'Marr Chase, CIN at HOU ($7,600)
Ja'Marr Chase carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 19.3 DraftKings points at $7,600, the 5th-highest on the entire main slate. That is 0.0 points clear of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The model gives him 10.9 targets on 37.6 routes. The salary works out to 2.54 projected points per $1,000, 5th of 35 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Chase averaged 19.3 points with a simulated floor of 6.8 and a ceiling of 39.6, and he holds 22% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cincinnati is a 3-point underdog on the road against Houston, with an implied team total of 21.25 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at ARI ($8,100)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 2nd at the position with 19.3 DraftKings points at $8,100. The model gives him 9.5 targets on 27.7 routes. The current projection of 19.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 20.4. The salary works out to 2.38 projected points per $1,000, 10th of 35 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 19.2 points with a simulated floor of 6.4 and a ceiling of 39.9, and he holds 18% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 3.5-point favorite on the road against Arizona, with an implied team total of 22.5 in a game totaled at 41.5.
Chris Olave, NO at BAL ($7,200)
Chris Olave projects 3rd at the position with 17.0 DraftKings points at $7,200. The model gives him 10.1 targets on 36.7 routes. The current projection of 17.0 compares with a saved model baseline of 16.3. The salary works out to 2.36 projected points per $1,000, 11th of 35 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Olave averaged 16.9 points with a simulated floor of 5.9 and a ceiling of 35.5, and he holds 13% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. New Orleans is an 8.5-point underdog on the road against Baltimore, with an implied team total of 18.5 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Value: DeMario Douglas, NE vs PIT ($3,800)
DeMario Douglas projects for 12.0 DraftKings points at $3,800, which works out to 3.16 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 35 wide receivers the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 6.5 targets on 30.3 routes. The current projection of 12.0 compares with a saved model baseline of 10.9. Across 10,000 simulations Douglas averaged 12.2 points with a simulated floor of 3.9 and a ceiling of 24.7, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. New England is a 5.5-point favorite at home against Pittsburgh, with an implied team total of 23.5 in a game totaled at 41.5.
Tight ends: Week 2 DraftKings projections
Trey McBride, ARI vs SEA ($6,900)
Trey McBride carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 16.0 DraftKings points at $6,900. That is 3.8 points clear of Michael Mayer. The model gives him 9.5 targets on 37.0 routes. The salary works out to 2.32 projected points per $1,000, 11th of 19 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McBride averaged 16.0 points with a simulated floor of 4.3 and a ceiling of 36.9, and he holds 13% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 3.5-point underdog at home against Seattle, with an implied team total of 19 in a game totaled at 41.5.
Michael Mayer, LV at LAC ($3,600)
Michael Mayer projects 2nd at the position with 12.2 DraftKings points at $3,600. The model gives him 7.5 targets on 24.9 routes. The current projection of 12.2 compares with a saved model baseline of 10.7. The salary works out to 3.39 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 19 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Mayer averaged 12.3 points with a simulated floor of 3.3 and a ceiling of 28.5, and he holds 20% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Las Vegas is a 6.5-point underdog on the road against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 18.5 in a game totaled at 43.5.
Value: Greg Dulcich, MIA at SF ($3,200)
Greg Dulcich projects for 10.7 DraftKings points at $3,200, which works out to 3.35 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 19 tight ends the model projects for 7 or more points. The model gives him 5.9 targets on 25.2 routes. The current projection of 10.7 compares with a saved model baseline of 9.9. Across 10,000 simulations Dulcich averaged 10.8 points with a simulated floor of 2.8 and a ceiling of 24.1, and he holds 3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Miami is a 13.5-point underdog on the road against San Francisco, with an implied team total of 15.5 in a game totaled at 44.5.
Defenses: Week 2 DraftKings projections
Eagles, PHI at TEN ($3,700)
Eagles carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 9.3 DraftKings points at $3,700. That is 0.2 points clear of Buccaneers. The salary works out to 2.52 projected points per $1,000, 12th of 18 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Eagles averaged 9.4 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 26.7, and it holds 4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Philadelphia is a 7-point favorite on the road against Tennessee, with an implied team total of 23.25 in a game totaled at 39.5.
Value: Panthers, CAR at ATL ($2,700)
Panthers projects for 7.7 DraftKings points at $2,700, which works out to 2.86 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 18 defenses the model projects for 6 or more points. Across 10,000 simulations Panthers averaged 7.8 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 20.8, and it holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite on the road against Atlanta, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 43.5.
The sim's favorite plays
The main slate was simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field. These five players hold the most winning-lineup credit.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | Winning-lineup credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $8,200 | 32% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $8,000 | 31% |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $7,200 | 24% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | $7,600 | 22% |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | $3,200 | 20% |
Week 2 game totals, spreads and implied points
WAS at DAL carries the highest total on the slate at 50.5. San Francisco is the biggest favorite, laying 13.5 against Miami. The three highest implied team totals belong to SF (29), BAL (27) and DAL (27). Lines are as of September 20, 6:43 PM ET and move before lock.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied points |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS @ DAL | 50.5 | DAL -3.5 | WAS 23.5 · DAL 27 |
| MIN @ CHI | 46.5 | CHI -4.5 | MIN 21 · CHI 25.5 |
| NO @ BAL | 45.5 | BAL -8.5 | NO 18.5 · BAL 27 |
| JAX @ DEN | 45.5 | DEN -2.5 | JAX 21.5 · DEN 24 |
| CIN @ HOU | 45.5 | HOU -3 | CIN 21.25 · HOU 24.25 |
| GB @ NYJ | 44.5 | GB -3.5 | GB 24 · NYJ 20.5 |
| MIA @ SF | 44.5 | SF -13.5 | MIA 15.5 · SF 29 |
| CAR @ ATL | 43.5 | CAR -2.5 | CAR 23 · ATL 20.5 |
| LV @ LAC | 43.5 | LAC -6.5 | LV 18.5 · LAC 25 |
| SEA @ ARI | 41.5 | SEA -3.5 | SEA 22.5 · ARI 19 |
| PIT @ NE | 41.5 | NE -5.5 | PIT 18 · NE 23.5 |
| CLE @ TB | 41.5 | TB -8.5 | CLE 16.5 · TB 25 |
| PHI @ TEN | 39.5 | PHI -7 | PHI 23.25 · TEN 16.25 |
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