NFL DFS Week 3 Picks: Top DraftKings Projections, Values and Sim Plays

DraftKings main slate · Sunday, September 27 · 13 games · By Chris Spags · Published September 23, 2026 · Numbers as of September 23, 1:59 PM ET

Jahmyr Gibbs carries the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 3 DraftKings main slate: 29.9 DraftKings points at $8,800. He also holds 38% of the simulated winning-lineup credit across 100,000 simulations, more than any other player on the slate, with Kenneth Walker III second at 30% for $7,400.

Behind Gibbs, the model's next four projections are James Cook III (23.5, $6,900), Jonathan Taylor (21.7, $7,600), Kenneth Walker III (21.5, $7,400) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (21.3, $7,900). James Cook III returns the most per dollar of that group at 3.40 projected points per $1,000. Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the wide receivers at 21.3 for $7,900, Josh Allen leads the quarterbacks at 21.2 for $8,000, and Trey McBride leads the tight ends at 15.4 for $6,700.

The 13-game slate runs from a 52.5-point total in BAL at DAL down to 39.5 in SEA at WAS. Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 23, 1:59 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup credit comes from 100,000 simulations of the contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th.

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Top 5 SPAGS model projections for Week 3 (DraftKings)

Quarterbacks: Week 3 DraftKings projections

Josh Allen, BUF vs LAC ($8,000)

Josh Allen carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 21.2 DraftKings points at $8,000. That is 1.6 points clear of Patrick Mahomes. The model includes 6.5 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 2.65 projected points per $1,000, 19th of 21 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Allen averaged 21.3 points with a simulated floor of 8.1 and a ceiling of 39.0, and he holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Buffalo is a 7-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 28.75 in a game totaled at 50.5.

Patrick Mahomes, KC at MIA ($6,200)

Patrick Mahomes projects 2nd at the position with 19.6 DraftKings points at $6,200. The model includes 3.9 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 3.16 projected points per $1,000, 8th of 21 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Mahomes averaged 19.6 points with a simulated floor of 7.7 and a ceiling of 35.9, and he holds 9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Kansas City is an 11.5-point favorite on the road against Miami, with an implied team total of 28.5 in a game totaled at 45.5.

Value: Deshaun Watson, CLE vs CAR ($4,700)

Deshaun Watson projects for 18.2 DraftKings points at $4,700, which works out to 3.87 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 21 quarterbacks the model projects for 15 or more points. The model includes 6.9 rushing attempts. Across 100,000 simulations Watson averaged 18.1 points with a simulated floor of 6.8 and a ceiling of 33.3, and he holds 8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cleveland is a 2.5-point underdog at home against Carolina, with an implied team total of 20 in a game totaled at 42.5.

Running backs: Week 3 DraftKings projections

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs NYJ ($8,800)

Jahmyr Gibbs carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 29.9 DraftKings points at $8,800, the highest on the entire main slate. That is 6.4 points clear of James Cook III. The model gives him 22.9 carries and 6.0 targets. The salary works out to 3.40 projected points per $1,000, 2nd of 29 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Gibbs averaged 29.9 points with a simulated floor of 12.0 and a ceiling of 57.5, and he holds 38% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Jets, with an implied team total of 27.5 in a game totaled at 48.5.

James Cook III, BUF vs LAC ($6,900)

James Cook III projects 2nd at the position with 23.5 DraftKings points at $6,900, 2nd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 21.2 carries and 2.6 targets. The salary works out to 3.40 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 29 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Cook averaged 23.5 points with a simulated floor of 8.7 and a ceiling of 45.2, and he holds 29% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Buffalo is a 7-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 28.75 in a game totaled at 50.5.

Jonathan Taylor, IND vs HOU ($7,600)

Jonathan Taylor projects 3rd at the position with 21.7 DraftKings points at $7,600, 3rd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 20.7 carries and 3.6 targets. The current projection of 21.7 compares with a saved model baseline of 20.5. The salary works out to 2.86 projected points per $1,000, 8th of 29 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Taylor averaged 21.7 points with a simulated floor of 8.1 and a ceiling of 42.0, and he holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Indianapolis is a 2.5-point underdog at home against Houston, with an implied team total of 20.5 in a game totaled at 43.5.

Value: Aaron Jones Sr., MIN at TB ($5,900)

Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 19.4 DraftKings points at $5,900, which works out to 3.28 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 29 running backs the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 19.1 carries and 3.5 targets. The current projection of 19.4 compares with a saved model baseline of 21.1. Across 100,000 simulations Jones averaged 19.3 points with a simulated floor of 7.4 and a ceiling of 37.5, and he holds 16% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Minnesota is a 1.5-point favorite on the road against Tampa Bay, with an implied team total of 22 in a game totaled at 42.5.

Wide receivers: Week 3 DraftKings projections

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs NYJ ($7,900)

Amon-Ra St. Brown carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 21.3 DraftKings points at $7,900, the 5th-highest on the entire main slate. That is 4.1 points clear of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The model gives him 10.7 targets on 31.8 routes. The salary works out to 2.69 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 30 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Brown averaged 21.3 points with a simulated floor of 7.0 and a ceiling of 44.3, and he holds 22% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Jets, with an implied team total of 27.5 in a game totaled at 48.5.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at WAS ($8,600)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 2nd at the position with 17.1 DraftKings points at $8,600. The model gives him 8.1 targets on 23.3 routes. The current projection of 17.1 compares with a saved model baseline of 17.7. The salary works out to 1.99 projected points per $1,000, 9th of 30 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 17.1 points with a simulated floor of 5.6 and a ceiling of 35.8, and he holds 11% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite on the road against Washington, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 39.5.

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN at PIT ($8,100)

Ja'Marr Chase projects 3rd at the position with 15.9 DraftKings points at $8,100. The model gives him 8.9 targets on 30.7 routes. The salary works out to 1.96 projected points per $1,000, 12th of 30 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Chase averaged 15.9 points with a simulated floor of 5.3 and a ceiling of 33.0, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite on the road against Pittsburgh, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 42.5.

Value: Keenan Allen, IND vs HOU ($4,600)

Keenan Allen projects for 11.6 DraftKings points at $4,600, which works out to 2.51 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 30 wide receivers the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 7.0 targets on 25.4 routes. The current projection of 11.6 compares with a saved model baseline of 10.8. Across 100,000 simulations Allen averaged 11.5 points with a simulated floor of 4.0 and a ceiling of 24.0, and he holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Indianapolis is a 2.5-point underdog at home against Houston, with an implied team total of 20.5 in a game totaled at 43.5.

Tight ends: Week 3 DraftKings projections

Trey McBride, ARI at SF ($6,700)

Trey McBride carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 15.4 DraftKings points at $6,700. That is 2.8 points clear of Tyler Warren. The model gives him 8.9 targets on 34.0 routes. The salary works out to 2.30 projected points per $1,000, 8th of 16 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations McBride averaged 15.5 points with a simulated floor of 4.2 and a ceiling of 34.8, and he holds 10% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is an 8.5-point underdog on the road against San Francisco, with an implied team total of 19.5 in a game totaled at 47.5.

Tyler Warren, IND vs HOU ($5,300)

Tyler Warren projects 2nd at the position with 12.6 DraftKings points at $5,300. The model gives him 7.1 targets on 29.4 routes. The current projection of 12.6 compares with a saved model baseline of 12.0. The salary works out to 2.38 projected points per $1,000, 7th of 16 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Warren averaged 12.6 points with a simulated floor of 3.2 and a ceiling of 28.5, and he holds 6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Indianapolis is a 2.5-point underdog at home against Houston, with an implied team total of 20.5 in a game totaled at 43.5.

Value: Greg Dulcich, MIA vs KC ($3,000)

Greg Dulcich projects for 9.4 DraftKings points at $3,000, which works out to 3.14 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 16 tight ends the model projects for 7 or more points. The model gives him 4.9 targets on 21.1 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Dulcich averaged 9.5 points with a simulated floor of 2.2 and a ceiling of 22.5, and he holds 8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Miami is an 11.5-point underdog at home against Kansas City, with an implied team total of 17 in a game totaled at 45.5.

Defenses: Week 3 DraftKings projections

Seahawks, SEA at WAS ($3,800)

Seahawks carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 9.3 DraftKings points at $3,800. That is 0.4 points clear of Chiefs. The salary works out to 2.46 projected points per $1,000, 13th of 20 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Seahawks averaged 9.4 points with a simulated floor of -0.1 and a ceiling of 25.6, and it holds 6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite on the road against Washington, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 39.5.

Value: Bills, BUF vs LAC ($2,800)

Bills projects for 7.9 DraftKings points at $2,800, which works out to 2.83 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 20 defenses the model projects for 6 or more points. Across 100,000 simulations Bills averaged 8.0 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 23.8, and it holds 4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Buffalo is a 7-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 28.75 in a game totaled at 50.5.

The sim's favorite plays

The main slate was simulated 100,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field. These five players hold the most winning-lineup credit.

Week 3 game totals, spreads and implied points

BAL at DAL carries the highest total on the slate at 52.5. Kansas City is the biggest favorite, laying 11.5 against Miami. The three highest implied team totals belong to BUF (28.75), KC (28.5) and SF (28). Lines are as of September 23, 1:59 PM ET and move before lock.