NFL DFS Projections Week 3: DraftKings Picks, Values and Sim Plays
Who are the top DraftKings NFL DFS plays in Week 3?
Jahmyr Gibbs carries the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 3 DraftKings main slate: 31.4 DraftKings points at $8,800. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit across 10,000 simulations. Kenneth Walker III holds the largest share at 34% for $7,400.
Behind Gibbs, the model's next four projections are Kenneth Walker III (24.5, $7,400), Josh Allen (23.9, $8,000), Christian McCaffrey (22.9, $8,300) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (22.4, $7,900). Jahmyr Gibbs returns the most per dollar of that group at 3.57 projected points per $1,000. Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the wide receivers at 22.4 for $7,900, Josh Allen leads the quarterbacks at 23.9 for $8,000, and Trey McBride leads the tight ends at 19.4 for $6,700.
The 13-game slate runs from a 53.5-point total in BAL at DAL down to 37.5 in TEN at NYG. Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 27, 3:45 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup credit comes from 10,000 simulations of the contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
Top 5 SPAGS model projections for Week 3 (DraftKings)
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS model proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $8,800 | 31.4 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $7,400 | 24.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $8,000 | 23.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $8,300 | 22.9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | $7,900 | 22.4 |
Quarterbacks: Week 3 DraftKings projections
Josh Allen, BUF vs LAC ($8,000)
Josh Allen carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 23.9 DraftKings points at $8,000, the 3rd-highest on the entire main slate. That is 3.7 points clear of Lamar Jackson. The model includes 6.5 rushing attempts. The current projection of 23.9 compares with a saved model baseline of 21.0. The salary works out to 2.99 projected points per $1,000, 13th of 19 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Allen averaged 24.1 points with a simulated floor of 9.6 and a ceiling of 44.5, and he holds 10% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Buffalo is a 7-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 28.75 in a game totaled at 50.5.
Lamar Jackson, BAL at DAL ($7,500)
Lamar Jackson projects 2nd at the position with 20.2 DraftKings points at $7,500. The model includes 4.4 rushing attempts. The current projection of 20.2 compares with a saved model baseline of 18.8. The salary works out to 2.69 projected points per $1,000, 18th of 19 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Jackson averaged 20.4 points with a simulated floor of 8.1 and a ceiling of 37.0, and he holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Baltimore is a 3-point favorite on the road against Dallas, with an implied team total of 28.25 in a game totaled at 53.5.
Value: Deshaun Watson, CLE vs CAR ($4,700)
Deshaun Watson projects for 17.5 DraftKings points at $4,700, which works out to 3.73 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 19 quarterbacks the model projects for 15 or more points. The model includes 6.1 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Watson averaged 17.6 points with a simulated floor of 7.1 and a ceiling of 32.0, and he holds 6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cleveland is a 2.5-point underdog at home against Carolina, with an implied team total of 19.5 in a game totaled at 41.5.
Running backs: Week 3 DraftKings projections
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs NYJ ($8,800)
Jahmyr Gibbs carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 31.4 DraftKings points at $8,800, the highest on the entire main slate. That is 6.9 points clear of Kenneth Walker III. The model gives him 25.4 carries and 5.7 targets. The current projection of 31.4 compares with a saved model baseline of 30.1. The salary works out to 3.57 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 29 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Gibbs averaged 31.5 points with a simulated floor of 12.6 and a ceiling of 62.4, and he holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Jets, with an implied team total of 27.5 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Kenneth Walker III, KC at MIA ($7,400)
Kenneth Walker III projects 2nd at the position with 24.5 DraftKings points at $7,400, 2nd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 20.0 carries and 4.4 targets. The current projection of 24.5 compares with a saved model baseline of 23.7. The salary works out to 3.31 projected points per $1,000, 2nd of 29 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Walker averaged 24.4 points with a simulated floor of 8.7 and a ceiling of 47.3, and he holds 34% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Kansas City is a 10-point favorite on the road against Miami, with an implied team total of 27.75 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Christian McCaffrey, SF vs ARI ($8,300)
Christian McCaffrey projects 3rd at the position with 22.9 DraftKings points at $8,300, 4th on the main slate overall. The model gives him 13.8 carries and 6.5 targets. The current projection of 22.9 compares with a saved model baseline of 17.6. The salary works out to 2.76 projected points per $1,000, 13th of 29 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McCaffrey averaged 22.8 points with a simulated floor of 8.8 and a ceiling of 45.5, and he holds 14% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite at home against Arizona, with an implied team total of 28 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Value: Aaron Jones Sr., MIN at TB ($5,900)
Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 18.4 DraftKings points at $5,900, which works out to 3.12 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 29 running backs the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 19.4 carries and 2.7 targets. The current projection of 18.4 compares with a saved model baseline of 19.9. Across 10,000 simulations Jones averaged 18.4 points with a simulated floor of 6.9 and a ceiling of 35.4, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Minnesota is a 1.5-point favorite on the road against Tampa Bay, with an implied team total of 22 in a game totaled at 42.5.
Wide receivers: Week 3 DraftKings projections
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs NYJ ($7,900)
Amon-Ra St. Brown carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 22.4 DraftKings points at $7,900, the 5th-highest on the entire main slate. That is 2.5 points clear of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The model gives him 11.4 targets on 34.2 routes. The salary works out to 2.83 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 44 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Brown averaged 22.4 points with a simulated floor of 10.0 and a ceiling of 42.2, and he holds 18% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Jets, with an implied team total of 27.5 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at WAS ($8,600)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 2nd at the position with 19.9 DraftKings points at $8,600. The model gives him 9.2 targets on 20.9 routes. The current projection of 19.9 compares with a saved model baseline of 15.9. The salary works out to 2.31 projected points per $1,000, 20th of 44 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 20.0 points with a simulated floor of 8.6 and a ceiling of 39.9, and he holds 13% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is an 8.5-point favorite on the road against Washington, with an implied team total of 24.5 in a game totaled at 40.5.
Ja'Marr Chase, CIN at PIT ($8,100)
Ja'Marr Chase projects 3rd at the position with 19.6 DraftKings points at $8,100. The model gives him 10.9 targets on 36.3 routes. The current projection of 19.6 compares with a saved model baseline of 12.8. The salary works out to 2.42 projected points per $1,000, 14th of 44 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Chase averaged 19.6 points with a simulated floor of 8.5 and a ceiling of 38.0, and he holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite on the road against Pittsburgh, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 42.5.
Value: Isaiah Williams, NYJ at DET ($3,300)
Isaiah Williams projects for 10.3 DraftKings points at $3,300, which works out to 3.12 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 44 wide receivers the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 6.1 targets on 34.8 routes. The current projection of 10.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 6.7. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 10.3 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 25.0, and he holds 9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog on the road against Detroit, with an implied team total of 21 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Tight ends: Week 3 DraftKings projections
Trey McBride, ARI at SF ($6,700)
Trey McBride carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 19.4 DraftKings points at $6,700. That is 4.2 points clear of Dalton Schultz. The model gives him 11.1 targets on 34.6 routes. The salary works out to 2.90 projected points per $1,000, 3rd of 20 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McBride averaged 19.5 points with a simulated floor of 7.9 and a ceiling of 38.7, and he holds 12% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 7.5-point underdog on the road against San Francisco, with an implied team total of 20.5 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Dalton Schultz, HOU at IND ($4,200)
Dalton Schultz projects 2nd at the position with 15.3 DraftKings points at $4,200. The model gives him 8.8 targets on 33.1 routes. The current projection of 15.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 12.6. The salary works out to 3.63 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 20 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Schultz averaged 15.2 points with a simulated floor of 5.5 and a ceiling of 31.9, and he holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Houston is a 1.5-point favorite on the road against Indianapolis, with an implied team total of 22 in a game totaled at 42.5.
Value: Cade Otton, TB vs MIN ($3,100)
Cade Otton projects for 9.0 DraftKings points at $3,100, which works out to 2.91 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 20 tight ends the model projects for 7 or more points. The model gives him 5.6 targets on 30.7 routes. The current projection of 9.0 compares with a saved model baseline of 8.4. Across 10,000 simulations Otton averaged 9.1 points with a simulated floor of 1.9 and a ceiling of 22.0, and he holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Tampa Bay is a 1.5-point underdog at home against Minnesota, with an implied team total of 20.5 in a game totaled at 42.5.
Defenses: Week 3 DraftKings projections
Seahawks, SEA at WAS ($3,800)
Seahawks carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 9.6 DraftKings points at $3,800. That is 0.9 points clear of Chiefs. The salary works out to 2.52 projected points per $1,000, 12th of 19 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Seahawks averaged 9.7 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 26.1, and it holds 4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is an 8.5-point favorite on the road against Washington, with an implied team total of 24.5 in a game totaled at 40.5.
Value: Titans, TEN at NYG ($2,400)
Titans projects for 7.6 DraftKings points at $2,400, which works out to 3.15 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 19 defenses the model projects for 6 or more points. Across 10,000 simulations Titans averaged 7.6 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 20.6, and it holds 17% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Tennessee is a 2.5-point underdog on the road against the Giants, with an implied team total of 17.5 in a game totaled at 37.5.
The sim's favorite plays
The main slate was simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field. These five players hold the most winning-lineup credit.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | Winning-lineup credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $7,400 | 34% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $8,800 | 33% |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | $4,200 | 30% |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | $6,300 | 23% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | $7,900 | 18% |
Week 3 game totals, spreads and implied points
BAL at DAL carries the highest total on the slate at 53.5. Kansas City is the biggest favorite, laying 10 against Miami. The three highest implied team totals belong to BUF (28.75), BAL (28.25) and SF (28). Lines are as of September 27, 3:45 PM ET and move before lock.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied points |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ DAL | 53.5 | BAL -3 | BAL 28.25 · DAL 25.25 |
| LAC @ BUF | 50.5 | BUF -7 | LAC 21.75 · BUF 28.75 |
| NYJ @ DET | 48.5 | DET -6.5 | NYJ 21 · DET 27.5 |
| ARI @ SF | 48.5 | SF -7.5 | ARI 20.5 · SF 28 |
| NE @ JAX | 46.5 | JAX -3 | NE 21.75 · JAX 24.75 |
| KC @ MIA | 45.5 | KC -10 | KC 27.75 · MIA 17.75 |
| LV @ NO | 43.5 | NO -3.5 | LV 20 · NO 23.5 |
| HOU @ IND | 42.5 | HOU -1.5 | HOU 22 · IND 20.5 |
| CIN @ PIT | 42.5 | CIN -3.5 | CIN 23 · PIT 19.5 |
| MIN @ TB | 42.5 | MIN -1.5 | MIN 22 · TB 20.5 |
| CAR @ CLE | 41.5 | CAR -2.5 | CAR 22 · CLE 19.5 |
| SEA @ WAS | 40.5 | SEA -8.5 | SEA 24.5 · WAS 16 |
| TEN @ NYG | 37.5 | NYG -2.5 | TEN 17.5 · NYG 20 |
Full Week 3 NFL DFS projections by position (DraftKings)
Every SPAGS model projection at each position for the Week 3 DraftKings main slate, ranked by projected points, from the September 27, 3:45 PM ET run.
Week 3 quarterback projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF vs LAC | $8,000 | 23.9 | 2.99 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | BAL at DAL | $7,500 | 20.2 | 2.69 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | KC at MIA | $6,200 | 19.6 | 3.15 |
| 4 | Dak Prescott | DAL vs BAL | $6,700 | 19.0 | 2.83 |
| 5 | Brock Purdy | SF vs ARI | $6,500 | 18.9 | 2.90 |
| 6 | Tyler Shough | NO vs LV | $5,400 | 18.5 | 3.42 |
| 7 | Drake Maye | NE at JAX | $6,100 | 18.3 | 3.00 |
| 8 | Jared Goff | DET vs NYJ | $6,300 | 17.9 | 2.84 |
| 9 | Justin Herbert | LAC at BUF | $5,800 | 17.7 | 3.05 |
| 10 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs NE | $5,700 | 17.6 | 3.09 |
| 11 | Deshaun Watson | CLE vs CAR | $4,700 | 17.5 | 3.73 |
| 12 | Joe Burrow | CIN at PIT | $6,600 | 17.0 | 2.58 |
| 13 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI at SF | $4,800 | 17.0 | 3.54 |
| 14 | C.J. Stroud | HOU at IND | $5,500 | 16.9 | 3.07 |
| 15 | Kyler Murray | MIN at TB | $5,100 | 16.2 | 3.18 |
| 16 | Malik Willis | MIA vs KC | $4,900 | 16.1 | 3.29 |
Week 3 running back projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NYJ | $8,800 | 31.4 | 3.57 |
| 2 | Kenneth Walker III | KC at MIA | $7,400 | 24.5 | 3.31 |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | SF vs ARI | $8,300 | 22.9 | 2.76 |
| 4 | Ashton Jeanty | LV at NO | $7,100 | 21.5 | 3.03 |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor | IND vs HOU | $7,600 | 21.4 | 2.82 |
| 6 | Chase Brown | CIN at PIT | $6,600 | 21.4 | 3.24 |
| 7 | James Cook III | BUF vs LAC | $6,900 | 20.9 | 3.02 |
| 8 | Javonte Williams | DAL vs BAL | $6,700 | 20.9 | 3.11 |
| 9 | De'Von Achane | MIA vs KC | $6,500 | 20.0 | 3.08 |
| 10 | Derrick Henry | BAL at DAL | $7,700 | 19.8 | 2.56 |
| 11 | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN at TB | $5,900 | 18.4 | 3.12 |
| 12 | Breece Hall | NYJ at DET | $6,400 | 17.8 | 2.78 |
| 13 | Bucky Irving | TB vs MIN | $6,300 | 17.7 | 2.81 |
| 14 | Jaylen Warren | PIT vs CIN | $5,700 | 17.7 | 3.10 |
| 15 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR at CLE | $6,100 | 15.2 | 2.49 |
| 16 | Cam Skattebo | NYG vs TEN | $6,200 | 14.8 | 2.39 |
| 17 | Omarion Hampton | LAC at BUF | $6,800 | 13.4 | 1.98 |
| 18 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE at JAX | $5,200 | 13.4 | 2.58 |
| 19 | David Montgomery | HOU at IND | $6,000 | 12.7 | 2.12 |
| 20 | Travis Etienne Jr. | NO vs LV | $5,800 | 12.7 | 2.18 |
| 21 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs CAR | $5,500 | 12.6 | 2.29 |
| 22 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE at JAX | $5,400 | 11.8 | 2.19 |
| 23 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs NE | $5,600 | 11.8 | 2.10 |
| 24 | Jeremiyah Love | ARI at SF | $5,500 | 11.1 | 2.02 |
| 25 | Tony Pollard | TEN at NYG | $5,400 | 10.8 | 2.00 |
| 26 | Jadarian Price | SEA at WAS | $5,300 | 10.7 | 2.02 |
| 27 | Woody Marks | HOU at IND | $5,000 | 10.4 | 2.08 |
| 28 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS vs SEA | $5,300 | 9.5 | 1.78 |
| 29 | Tyjae Spears | TEN at NYG | $4,900 | 9.2 | 1.87 |
| 30 | Alvin Kamara | NO vs LV | $4,800 | 8.8 | 1.82 |
| 31 | Rachaad White | WAS vs SEA | $5,100 | 8.7 | 1.70 |
| 32 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA at WAS | $4,900 | 8.1 | 1.64 |
Week 3 wide receiver projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NYJ | $7,900 | 22.4 | 2.83 |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA at WAS | $8,600 | 19.9 | 2.31 |
| 3 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN at PIT | $8,100 | 19.6 | 2.42 |
| 4 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL vs BAL | $7,800 | 19.0 | 2.44 |
| 5 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ at DET | $6,300 | 17.7 | 2.81 |
| 6 | Chris Olave | NO vs LV | $7,200 | 16.8 | 2.34 |
| 7 | Parker Washington | JAX vs NE | $6,000 | 16.0 | 2.66 |
| 8 | George Pickens | DAL vs BAL | $6,600 | 15.8 | 2.39 |
| 9 | Tee Higgins | CIN at PIT | $6,100 | 15.8 | 2.58 |
| 10 | Jalen Coker | CAR at CLE | $5,500 | 15.6 | 2.84 |
| 11 | Josh Downs | IND vs HOU | $5,700 | 14.5 | 2.54 |
| 12 | Malik Nabers | NYG vs TEN | $6,500 | 13.9 | 2.14 |
| 13 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR at CLE | $6,000 | 13.4 | 2.23 |
| 14 | DK Metcalf | PIT vs CIN | $5,400 | 12.7 | 2.34 |
| 15 | Justin Jefferson | MIN at TB | $7,500 | 12.6 | 1.69 |
| 16 | KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE vs CAR | $4,300 | 12.5 | 2.90 |
| 17 | Michael Wilson | ARI at SF | $5,200 | 12.3 | 2.38 |
| 18 | Zay Flowers | BAL at DAL | $6,900 | 12.1 | 1.75 |
| 19 | Jameson Williams | DET vs NYJ | $5,400 | 11.9 | 2.21 |
| 20 | Denzel Boston | CLE vs CAR | $4,500 | 11.7 | 2.60 |
| 21 | Mike Evans | SF vs ARI | $6,800 | 11.7 | 1.72 |
| 22 | DJ Moore | BUF vs LAC | $5,800 | 11.6 | 2.01 |
| 23 | Emeka Egbuka | TB vs MIN | $6,200 | 11.6 | 1.86 |
| 24 | Malik Washington | MIA vs KC | $4,200 | 11.4 | 2.71 |
| 25 | Khalil Shakir | BUF vs LAC | $4,800 | 11.2 | 2.34 |
| 26 | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU at IND | $4,000 | 11.2 | 2.80 |
| 27 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs ARI | $5,300 | 11.1 | 2.09 |
| 28 | Stefon Diggs | WAS vs SEA | $5,500 | 11.0 | 2.00 |
| 29 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB vs MIN | $5,300 | 11.0 | 2.07 |
| 30 | Quentin Johnston | LAC at BUF | $4,900 | 11.0 | 2.24 |
| 31 | Rashod Bateman | BAL at DAL | $4,700 | 10.5 | 2.23 |
| 32 | Isaiah Williams | NYJ at DET | $3,300 | 10.3 | 3.12 |
| 33 | Carnell Tate | TEN at NYG | $5,000 | 10.3 | 2.05 |
| 34 | Ryan Flournoy | DAL vs BAL | $3,800 | 10.1 | 2.66 |
| 35 | Romeo Doubs | NE at JAX | $5,100 | 10.1 | 1.97 |
| 36 | Terry McLaurin | WAS vs SEA | $5,100 | 10.1 | 1.97 |
| 37 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI at SF | $4,700 | 10.0 | 2.13 |
| 38 | Rashee Rice | KC at MIA | $6,400 | 9.8 | 1.53 |
| 39 | Ladd McConkey | LAC at BUF | $5,900 | 9.7 | 1.64 |
| 40 | Xavier Worthy | KC at MIA | $4,400 | 9.4 | 2.15 |
Week 3 tight end projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | ARI at SF | $6,700 | 19.4 | 2.90 |
| 2 | Dalton Schultz | HOU at IND | $4,200 | 15.3 | 3.63 |
| 3 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF vs LAC | $5,500 | 13.6 | 2.47 |
| 4 | Travis Kelce | KC at MIA | $4,500 | 12.3 | 2.74 |
| 5 | Sam LaPorta | DET vs NYJ | $4,300 | 12.0 | 2.79 |
| 6 | Isaiah Likely | NYG vs TEN | $4,700 | 11.4 | 2.43 |
| 7 | Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs CAR | $4,000 | 11.2 | 2.79 |
| 8 | Mark Andrews | BAL at DAL | $4,400 | 11.0 | 2.50 |
| 9 | Tyler Warren | IND vs HOU | $5,300 | 10.9 | 2.05 |
| 10 | Hunter Henry | NE at JAX | $3,900 | 10.8 | 2.76 |
| 11 | Brock Bowers | LV at NO | $6,600 | 9.7 | 1.47 |
| 12 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT vs CIN | $3,800 | 9.7 | 2.54 |
| 13 | Oronde Gadsden II | LAC at BUF | $3,500 | 9.6 | 2.74 |
| 14 | George Kittle | SF vs ARI | $4,800 | 9.3 | 1.95 |
| 15 | Cade Otton | TB vs MIN | $3,100 | 9.0 | 2.91 |
| 16 | Greg Dulcich | MIA vs KC | $3,000 | 8.4 | 2.79 |
Week 3 defense projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks | SEA at WAS | $3,800 | 9.6 | 2.52 |
| 2 | Chiefs | KC at MIA | $3,700 | 8.7 | 2.35 |
| 3 | Giants | NYG vs TEN | $3,400 | 8.7 | 2.54 |
| 4 | Panthers | CAR at CLE | $3,000 | 8.6 | 2.88 |
| 5 | Lions | DET vs NYJ | $3,500 | 8.3 | 2.38 |
| 6 | Bills | BUF vs LAC | $2,800 | 7.9 | 2.83 |
| 7 | 49ers | SF vs ARI | $3,600 | 7.8 | 2.17 |
| 8 | Bengals | CIN at PIT | $2,900 | 7.8 | 2.69 |
| 9 | Texans | HOU at IND | $3,200 | 7.8 | 2.44 |
| 10 | Vikings | MIN at TB | $3,100 | 7.8 | 2.50 |
| 11 | Jaguars | JAX vs NE | $2,900 | 7.7 | 2.66 |
| 12 | Saints | NO vs LV | $3,300 | 7.7 | 2.32 |
Floors, ceilings, simulated win rates, ownership and one-click DraftKings and FanDuel exports for every player are in the Splash Play NFL tool. Open the NFL DFS tool →
NFL DFS Week 3 projections FAQ
Who has the highest NFL DFS projection for Week 3?
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB) has the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 3 DraftKings main slate at 31.4 points for $8,800, as of September 27, 3:45 PM ET.
Who is the top quarterback projection for Week 3 on DraftKings?
Josh Allen leads the Week 3 quarterbacks at 23.9 projected DraftKings points for $8,000, vs LAC.
What is the best NFL DFS value play for Week 3?
Among players projected for at least 10 points, Deshaun Watson (QB, $4,700) returns the most projected points per $1,000 of salary at 3.73, projected for 17.5.
Which game has the highest total in NFL Week 3?
BAL at DAL has the highest total on the Week 3 DraftKings main slate at 53.5 points, as of September 27, 3:45 PM ET. Lines move before lock.
How are the SPAGS NFL DFS projections made?
SPAGS projections come from the Splash Play NFL model, built by Chris Spags from player workload, efficiency and game environment. The slate is then simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field to measure winning-lineup credit.
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