NFL DFS Projections Week 4: DraftKings Picks, Values and Sim Plays
Kenneth Walker III carries the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 4 DraftKings main slate: 22.1 DraftKings points at $8,200. He holds 12% of the simulated winning-lineup credit across 10,000 simulations. Chase Brown holds the largest share at 39% for $6,100.
Behind Walker, the model's next four projections are Josh Allen (21.6, $7,700), Chase Brown (20.5, $6,100), James Cook III (20.4, $7,400) and Aaron Jones Sr. (20.4, $6,000). Aaron Jones Sr. returns the most per dollar of that group at 3.40 projected points per $1,000. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the wide receivers at 19.7 for $9,100, Josh Allen leads the quarterbacks at 21.6 for $7,700, and Trey McBride leads the tight ends at 20.1 for $6,500.
The 12-game slate runs from a 51.5-point total in JAX at CIN down to 38.5 in MIA at MIN. Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 29, 11:50 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup credit comes from 10,000 simulations of the contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
Top 5 SPAGS model projections for Week 4 (DraftKings)
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS model proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $8,200 | 22.1 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $7,700 | 21.6 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | $6,100 | 20.5 |
| James Cook III | BUF | RB | $7,400 | 20.4 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | RB | $6,000 | 20.4 |
Quarterbacks: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Josh Allen, BUF vs NE ($7,700)
Josh Allen carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 21.6 DraftKings points at $7,700, the 2nd-highest on the entire main slate. That is 1.8 points clear of Joe Burrow. The model includes 6.6 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 2.81 projected points per $1,000, 21st of 23 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Allen averaged 21.5 points with a simulated floor of 8.3 and a ceiling of 40.0, and he holds 11% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Buffalo is a 7-point favorite at home against New England, with an implied team total of 27.75 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Joe Burrow, CIN vs JAX ($6,800)
Joe Burrow projects 2nd at the position with 19.9 DraftKings points at $6,800. The salary works out to 2.92 projected points per $1,000, 17th of 23 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Burrow averaged 19.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.9 and a ceiling of 35.9, and he holds 0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite at home against Jacksonville, with an implied team total of 27.25 in a game totaled at 51.5.
Value: Jalon Daniels, TB vs GB ($4,400)
Jalon Daniels projects for 16.4 DraftKings points at $4,400, which works out to 3.72 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 23 quarterbacks the model projects for 15 or more points. The model includes 4.7 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Daniels averaged 16.4 points with a simulated floor of 6.1 and a ceiling of 29.7, and he holds 0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point underdog at home against Green Bay, with an implied team total of 18 in a game totaled at 39.5.
Running backs: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Kenneth Walker III, KC at LV ($8,200)
Kenneth Walker III carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 22.1 DraftKings points at $8,200, the highest on the entire main slate. That is 1.6 points clear of Chase Brown. The model gives him 18.7 carries and 4.5 targets. The salary works out to 2.70 projected points per $1,000, 6th of 26 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Walker averaged 22.2 points with a simulated floor of 10.7 and a ceiling of 38.5, and he holds 12% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite on the road against Las Vegas, with an implied team total of 26 in a game totaled at 47.5.
Chase Brown, CIN vs JAX ($6,100)
Chase Brown projects 2nd at the position with 20.5 DraftKings points at $6,100, 3rd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 17.9 carries and 4.5 targets. The salary works out to 3.36 projected points per $1,000, 2nd of 26 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Brown averaged 20.6 points with a simulated floor of 9.2 and a ceiling of 36.9, and he holds 39% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite at home against Jacksonville, with an implied team total of 27.25 in a game totaled at 51.5.
James Cook III, BUF vs NE ($7,400)
James Cook III projects 3rd at the position with 20.4 DraftKings points at $7,400, 4th on the main slate overall. The model gives him 20.0 carries and 2.5 targets. The salary works out to 2.76 projected points per $1,000, 3rd of 26 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Cook averaged 20.4 points with a simulated floor of 9.0 and a ceiling of 37.3, and he holds 20% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Buffalo is a 7-point favorite at home against New England, with an implied team total of 27.75 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Value: Kyren Williams, LAR at PHI ($5,900)
Kyren Williams projects for 16.1 DraftKings points at $5,900, which works out to 2.72 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 26 running backs the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 15.1 carries and 3.4 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 16.1 points with a simulated floor of 6.3 and a ceiling of 30.3, and he holds 11% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. The Rams are a 2.5-point favorite on the road against Philadelphia, with an implied team total of 24 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Wide receivers: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs LAC ($9,100)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 19.7 DraftKings points at $9,100. That is 2.8 points clear of Tee Higgins. The model gives him 8.8 targets on 25.2 routes. The salary works out to 2.16 projected points per $1,000, 16th of 32 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 19.6 points with a simulated floor of 8.1 and a ceiling of 39.3, and he holds 16% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 25 in a game totaled at 43.5.
Tee Higgins, CIN vs JAX ($6,100)
Tee Higgins projects 2nd at the position with 16.9 DraftKings points at $6,100. The model gives him 8.7 targets on 36.3 routes. The salary works out to 2.77 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 32 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Higgins averaged 16.9 points with a simulated floor of 5.6 and a ceiling of 36.3, and he holds 16% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite at home against Jacksonville, with an implied team total of 27.25 in a game totaled at 51.5.
Ja'Marr Chase, CIN vs JAX ($8,100)
Ja'Marr Chase projects 3rd at the position with 16.8 DraftKings points at $8,100. The model gives him 8.7 targets on 36.3 routes. The salary works out to 2.08 projected points per $1,000, 20th of 32 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Chase averaged 17.0 points with a simulated floor of 5.5 and a ceiling of 37.4, and he holds 13% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite at home against Jacksonville, with an implied team total of 27.25 in a game totaled at 51.5.
Value: Michael Wilson, ARI at NYG ($5,500)
Michael Wilson projects for 16.0 DraftKings points at $5,500, which works out to 2.91 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 32 wide receivers the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 9.6 targets on 37.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Wilson averaged 16.0 points with a simulated floor of 4.9 and a ceiling of 36.1, and he holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 1.5-point favorite on the road against the Giants, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 44.5.
Tight ends: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Trey McBride, ARI at NYG ($6,500)
Trey McBride carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 20.1 DraftKings points at $6,500. That is 8.1 points clear of Dalton Schultz. The model gives him 11.0 targets on 33.9 routes. The salary works out to 3.09 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 14 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McBride averaged 20.1 points with a simulated floor of 7.9 and a ceiling of 40.3, and he holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 1.5-point favorite on the road against the Giants, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 44.5.
Dalton Schultz, HOU vs DAL ($4,800)
Dalton Schultz projects 2nd at the position with 12.0 DraftKings points at $4,800. The model gives him 6.8 targets on 26.8 routes. The salary works out to 2.50 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 14 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Schultz averaged 12.1 points with a simulated floor of 3.6 and a ceiling of 27.6, and he holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Houston is a 2.5-point favorite at home against Dallas, with an implied team total of 25 in a game totaled at 47.5.
Value: T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs MIA ($3,300)
T.J. Hockenson projects for 10.2 DraftKings points at $3,300, which works out to 3.08 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 14 tight ends the model projects for 7 or more points. The model gives him 5.7 targets on 25.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Hockenson averaged 10.2 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 25.5, and he holds 9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Minnesota is a 10.5-point favorite at home against Miami, with an implied team total of 24.5 in a game totaled at 38.5.
Defenses: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Vikings, MIN vs MIA ($4,000)
Vikings carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 8.8 DraftKings points at $4,000. That is 0.6 points clear of Seahawks. The salary works out to 2.20 projected points per $1,000, 6th of 11 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Vikings averaged 8.9 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 15.1, and it holds 0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Minnesota is a 10.5-point favorite at home against Miami, with an implied team total of 24.5 in a game totaled at 38.5.
Value: Bears, CHI vs NYJ ($3,000)
Bears projects for 8.0 DraftKings points at $3,000, which works out to 2.65 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 11 defenses the model projects for 6 or more points. Across 10,000 simulations Bears averaged 7.9 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 15.5, and it holds 2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Chicago is a 3-point favorite at home against the Jets, with an implied team total of 23.25 in a game totaled at 43.5.
The sim's favorite plays
The main slate was simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field. These five players hold the most winning-lineup credit.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | Winning-lineup credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | $6,100 | 39% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $7,700 | 30% |
| Trey McBride | ARI | TE | $6,500 | 28% |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB | $7,100 | 24% |
| James Cook III | BUF | RB | $7,400 | 20% |
Week 4 game totals, spreads and implied points
JAX at CIN carries the highest total on the slate at 51.5. Baltimore is the biggest favorite, laying 11.5 against Tennessee. The three highest implied team totals belong to BUF (27.75), BAL (27.5) and CIN (27.25). Lines are as of September 29, 11:50 AM ET and move before lock.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied points |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX @ CIN | 51.5 | CIN -3 | JAX 24.25 · CIN 27.25 |
| NE @ BUF | 48.5 | BUF -7 | NE 20.75 · BUF 27.75 |
| DAL @ HOU | 47.5 | HOU -2.5 | DAL 22.5 · HOU 25 |
| KC @ LV | 47.5 | KC -4.5 | KC 26 · LV 21.5 |
| DEN @ SF | 46.5 | SF -3 | DEN 21.75 · SF 24.75 |
| LAR @ PHI | 45.5 | LAR -2.5 | LAR 24 · PHI 21.5 |
| ARI @ NYG | 44.5 | ARI -1.5 | ARI 23 · NYG 21.5 |
| TEN @ BAL | 43.5 | BAL -11.5 | TEN 16 · BAL 27.5 |
| NYJ @ CHI | 43.5 | CHI -3 | NYJ 20.25 · CHI 23.25 |
| LAC @ SEA | 43.5 | SEA -6.5 | LAC 18.5 · SEA 25 |
| GB @ TB | 39.5 | GB -3.5 | GB 21.5 · TB 18 |
| MIA @ MIN | 38.5 | MIN -10.5 | MIA 14 · MIN 24.5 |
Full Week 4 NFL DFS projections by position (DraftKings)
Every SPAGS model projection at each position for the Week 4 DraftKings main slate, ranked by projected points, from the September 29, 11:50 AM ET run.
Week 4 quarterback projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF vs NE | $7,700 | 21.6 | 2.81 |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | CIN vs JAX | $6,800 | 19.9 | 2.92 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | KC at LV | $6,500 | 19.8 | 3.05 |
| 4 | Lamar Jackson | BAL vs TEN | $7,300 | 19.3 | 2.64 |
| 5 | Drake Maye | NE at BUF | $6,000 | 18.9 | 3.15 |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | SF vs DEN | $6,700 | 18.8 | 2.81 |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX at CIN | $5,900 | 18.8 | 3.18 |
| 8 | Jalen Hurts | PHI vs LAR | $6,600 | 18.6 | 2.82 |
| 9 | C.J. Stroud | HOU vs DAL | $5,700 | 18.6 | 3.26 |
| 10 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI at NYG | $5,000 | 18.4 | 3.67 |
| 11 | Dak Prescott | DAL at HOU | $6,400 | 18.3 | 2.87 |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford | LAR at PHI | $6,200 | 18.2 | 2.93 |
| 13 | Bo Nix | DEN at SF | $5,600 | 18.0 | 3.21 |
| 14 | Tyson Bagent | CHI vs NYJ | $4,800 | 17.7 | 3.68 |
| 15 | Justin Herbert | LAC at SEA | $5,400 | 16.9 | 3.14 |
| 16 | Kyler Murray | MIN vs MIA | $5,300 | 16.9 | 3.19 |
Week 4 running back projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenneth Walker III | KC at LV | $8,200 | 22.1 | 2.70 |
| 2 | Chase Brown | CIN vs JAX | $6,100 | 20.5 | 3.36 |
| 3 | James Cook III | BUF vs NE | $7,400 | 20.4 | 2.76 |
| 4 | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN vs MIA | $6,000 | 20.4 | 3.40 |
| 5 | Derrick Henry | BAL vs TEN | $8,400 | 20.3 | 2.42 |
| 6 | Ashton Jeanty | LV vs KC | $7,100 | 19.2 | 2.71 |
| 7 | Christian McCaffrey | SF vs DEN | $7,700 | 18.9 | 2.46 |
| 8 | Javonte Williams | DAL at HOU | $6,600 | 17.4 | 2.64 |
| 9 | Kyren Williams | LAR at PHI | $5,900 | 16.1 | 2.72 |
| 10 | Bucky Irving | TB vs GB | $6,000 | 15.4 | 2.57 |
| 11 | D'Andre Swift | CHI vs NYJ | $6,400 | 15.3 | 2.39 |
| 12 | Breece Hall | NYJ at CHI | $6,200 | 15.2 | 2.45 |
| 13 | Cam Skattebo | NYG vs ARI | $6,100 | 14.9 | 2.44 |
| 14 | David Montgomery | HOU vs DAL | $5,700 | 12.8 | 2.24 |
| 15 | Jeremiyah Love | ARI at NYG | $5,800 | 12.6 | 2.18 |
| 16 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN at SF | $5,300 | 12.4 | 2.33 |
| 17 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE at BUF | $5,100 | 11.8 | 2.32 |
| 18 | Saquon Barkley | PHI vs LAR | $6,800 | 11.4 | 1.68 |
| 19 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA at MIN | $5,500 | 11.3 | 2.05 |
| 20 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAX at CIN | $5,600 | 11.2 | 2.01 |
| 21 | Tony Pollard | TEN at BAL | $5,400 | 10.9 | 2.01 |
| 22 | Omarion Hampton | LAC at SEA | $6,300 | 10.8 | 1.72 |
| 23 | MarShawn Lloyd | GB at TB | $4,800 | 10.6 | 2.20 |
| 24 | Jadarian Price | SEA vs LAC | $5,100 | 9.5 | 1.86 |
| 25 | Woody Marks | HOU vs DAL | $4,700 | 9.3 | 1.99 |
| 26 | Blake Corum | LAR at PHI | $4,900 | 9.1 | 1.86 |
| 27 | Kyle Monangai | CHI vs NYJ | $4,900 | 8.8 | 1.79 |
| 28 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs LAC | $4,700 | 8.6 | 1.83 |
| 29 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE at BUF | $5,200 | 8.6 | 1.65 |
| 30 | RJ Harvey | DEN at SF | $5,000 | 8.4 | 1.68 |
| 31 | Kenny Gainwell | TB vs GB | $4,700 | 8.2 | 1.75 |
| 32 | Tyler Allgeier | ARI at NYG | $4,800 | 7.6 | 1.59 |
Week 4 wide receiver projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs LAC | $9,100 | 19.7 | 2.16 |
| 2 | Tee Higgins | CIN vs JAX | $6,100 | 16.9 | 2.77 |
| 3 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs JAX | $8,100 | 16.8 | 2.08 |
| 4 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL at HOU | $7,800 | 16.7 | 2.14 |
| 5 | DeVonta Smith | PHI vs LAR | $7,100 | 16.6 | 2.34 |
| 6 | Michael Wilson | ARI at NYG | $5,500 | 16.0 | 2.91 |
| 7 | George Pickens | DAL at HOU | $6,300 | 15.4 | 2.45 |
| 8 | Christian Watson | GB at TB | $6,700 | 15.3 | 2.29 |
| 9 | Davante Adams | LAR at PHI | $7,000 | 15.3 | 2.18 |
| 10 | Matthew Golden | GB at TB | $5,400 | 14.4 | 2.67 |
| 11 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ at CHI | $6,800 | 13.4 | 1.98 |
| 12 | Parker Washington | JAX at CIN | $6,500 | 13.4 | 2.07 |
| 13 | Malik Washington | MIA at MIN | $4,400 | 12.3 | 2.80 |
| 14 | Carnell Tate | TEN at BAL | $4,800 | 12.0 | 2.50 |
| 15 | Rashee Rice | KC at LV | $6,400 | 12.0 | 1.87 |
| 16 | Jaylen Waddle | DEN at SF | $6,200 | 11.6 | 1.88 |
| 17 | Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN at BAL | $4,600 | 11.3 | 2.46 |
| 18 | Tre Tucker | LV vs KC | $5,100 | 11.1 | 2.17 |
| 19 | Emeka Egbuka | TB vs GB | $5,900 | 10.6 | 1.80 |
| 20 | Malik Nabers | NYG vs ARI | $6,000 | 10.6 | 1.76 |
| 21 | Kalif Raymond | CHI vs NYJ | $3,600 | 10.5 | 2.91 |
| 22 | Mike Evans | SF vs DEN | $6,600 | 10.4 | 1.58 |
| 23 | Ryan Flournoy | DAL at HOU | $3,800 | 10.3 | 2.72 |
| 24 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs DEN | $5,600 | 10.2 | 1.83 |
| 25 | Quentin Johnston | LAC at SEA | $4,800 | 10.2 | 2.13 |
| 26 | Luther Burden III | CHI vs NYJ | $5,200 | 9.8 | 1.89 |
| 27 | Courtland Sutton | DEN at SF | $4,900 | 9.7 | 1.99 |
| 28 | Mack Hollins | NE at BUF | $4,000 | 9.7 | 2.43 |
| 29 | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU vs DAL | $4,300 | 9.5 | 2.22 |
| 30 | Justin Jefferson | MIN vs MIA | $7,300 | 9.3 | 1.28 |
| 31 | Ladd McConkey | LAC at SEA | $5,800 | 9.3 | 1.61 |
| 32 | Dontayvion Wicks | PHI vs LAR | $4,300 | 9.2 | 2.14 |
| 33 | Jordan Addison | MIN vs MIA | $5,300 | 8.9 | 1.69 |
| 34 | DJ Moore | BUF vs NE | $5,700 | 8.9 | 1.56 |
| 35 | DeMario Douglas | NE at BUF | $3,500 | 8.8 | 2.52 |
| 36 | Jakobi Meyers | JAX at CIN | $5,000 | 8.7 | 1.74 |
| 37 | Tre' Harris | LAC at SEA | $4,100 | 8.7 | 2.12 |
| 38 | Xavier Worthy | KC at LV | $4,600 | 8.5 | 1.86 |
| 39 | Romeo Doubs | NE at BUF | $4,700 | 8.4 | 1.80 |
| 40 | Khalil Shakir | BUF vs NE | $4,700 | 8.4 | 1.78 |
Week 4 tight end projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | ARI at NYG | $6,500 | 20.1 | 3.09 |
| 2 | Dalton Schultz | HOU vs DAL | $4,800 | 12.0 | 2.50 |
| 3 | Travis Kelce | KC at LV | $5,000 | 11.3 | 2.25 |
| 4 | George Kittle | SF vs DEN | $5,100 | 11.0 | 2.16 |
| 5 | Isaiah Likely | NYG vs ARI | $4,500 | 10.9 | 2.42 |
| 6 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN vs MIA | $3,300 | 10.2 | 3.08 |
| 7 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF vs NE | $5,300 | 10.1 | 1.91 |
| 8 | Mark Andrews | BAL vs TEN | $4,200 | 9.9 | 2.35 |
| 9 | Tucker Kraft | GB at TB | $4,400 | 9.3 | 2.10 |
| 10 | Cade Otton | TB vs GB | $3,400 | 8.4 | 2.46 |
| 11 | Michael Mayer | LV vs KC | $3,400 | 8.2 | 2.42 |
| 12 | Greg Dulcich | MIA at MIN | $3,200 | 8.0 | 2.51 |
| 13 | Brenton Strange | JAX at CIN | $3,200 | 7.8 | 2.45 |
| 14 | Hunter Henry | NE at BUF | $3,500 | 7.7 | 2.21 |
| 15 | AJ Barner | SEA vs LAC | $3,000 | 6.8 | 2.26 |
| 16 | Brock Bowers | LV vs KC | $6,900 | 6.7 | 0.97 |
Week 4 defense projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikings | MIN vs MIA | $4,000 | 8.8 | 2.20 |
| 2 | Seahawks | SEA vs LAC | $3,500 | 8.3 | 2.36 |
| 3 | Ravens | BAL vs TEN | $3,800 | 8.0 | 2.10 |
| 4 | Bears | CHI vs NYJ | $3,000 | 8.0 | 2.65 |
| 5 | Packers | GB at TB | $3,200 | 7.2 | 2.26 |
| 6 | Bills | BUF vs NE | $3,300 | 6.9 | 2.10 |
| 7 | Rams | LAR at PHI | $2,600 | 6.4 | 2.46 |
| 8 | Texans | HOU vs DAL | $2,900 | 6.4 | 2.20 |
| 9 | Chiefs | KC at LV | $3,400 | 6.3 | 1.85 |
| 10 | Cardinals | ARI at NYG | $2,500 | 6.2 | 2.49 |
| 11 | Giants | NYG vs ARI | $3,100 | 6.2 | 2.00 |
| 12 | Buccaneers | TB vs GB | $2,800 | 6.0 | 2.13 |
Floors, ceilings, simulated win rates, ownership and one-click DraftKings and FanDuel exports for every player are in the Splash Play NFL tool. Open the NFL DFS tool →
NFL DFS Week 4 projections FAQ
Who has the highest NFL DFS projection for Week 4?
Kenneth Walker III (KC, RB) has the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 4 DraftKings main slate at 22.1 points for $8,200, as of September 29, 11:50 AM ET.
Who is the top quarterback projection for Week 4 on DraftKings?
Josh Allen leads the Week 4 quarterbacks at 21.6 projected DraftKings points for $7,700, vs NE.
What is the best NFL DFS value play for Week 4?
Among players projected for at least 10 points, Jalon Daniels (QB, $4,400) returns the most projected points per $1,000 of salary at 3.72, projected for 16.4.
Which game has the highest total in NFL Week 4?
JAX at CIN has the highest total on the Week 4 DraftKings main slate at 51.5 points, as of September 29, 11:50 AM ET. Lines move before lock.
How are the SPAGS NFL DFS projections made?
SPAGS projections come from the Splash Play NFL model, built by Chris Spags from player workload, efficiency and game environment. The slate is then simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field to measure winning-lineup credit.
Use READER for 25% off
Want the whole slate? VIP unlocks SPAGS projections and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building.
25% off your first payment. First-time customers only. Enter READER in Stripe checkout.
JOIN THE SQUAD →SEE HOW IT WORKS →