NFL DFS Projections Week 4: DraftKings Picks, Values and Sim Plays
Who are the top DraftKings NFL DFS plays in Week 4?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba carries the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 4 DraftKings main slate: 21.5 DraftKings points at $8,800. He holds 18% of the simulated winning-lineup credit across 100,000 simulations. Jonathan Taylor holds the largest share at 30% for $7,800.
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Behind Smith-Njigba, the model's next four projections are Christian McCaffrey (21.4, $8,200), Jonathan Taylor (21.3, $7,800), Brock Purdy (19.3, $6,500) and Jaylen Warren (18.8, $6,700). Brock Purdy returns the most per dollar of that group at 2.97 projected points per $1,000. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the wide receivers at 21.5 for $8,800, Brock Purdy leads the quarterbacks at 19.3 for $6,500, and Trey McBride leads the tight ends at 17.1 for $6,700.
The 7-game slate runs from a 48.5-point total in DEN at SF down to 38.5 in MIA at MIN. Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 5, 11:08 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup credit comes from 100,000 simulations of the contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
Top 5 SPAGS model projections for Week 4 (DraftKings)
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS model proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | $8,800 | 21.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $8,200 | 21.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | $7,800 | 21.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | $6,500 | 19.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $6,700 | 18.8 |
Quarterbacks: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Brock Purdy, SF vs DEN ($6,500)
Brock Purdy carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 19.3 DraftKings points at $6,500, the 4th-highest on the entire main slate. That is 0.6 points clear of Jayden Daniels. The model includes 4.0 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 2.97 projected points per $1,000, 10th of 11 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Purdy averaged 19.3 points with a simulated floor of 7.3 and a ceiling of 36.4, and he holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. San Francisco is a 3-point favorite at home against Denver, with an implied team total of 25.75 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Jayden Daniels, WAS vs IND ($6,000)
Jayden Daniels projects 2nd at the position with 18.8 DraftKings points at $6,000. The model includes 6.4 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 3.13 projected points per $1,000, 8th of 11 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Daniels averaged 18.8 points with a simulated floor of 7.0 and a ceiling of 33.8, and he holds 5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Washington is a 4.5-point underdog at home against Indianapolis, with an implied team total of 21 in a game totaled at 46.5.
Value: Tyson Bagent, CHI vs NYJ ($4,700)
Tyson Bagent projects for 17.8 DraftKings points at $4,700, which works out to 3.79 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 11 quarterbacks the model projects for 15 or more points. The model includes 5.7 rushing attempts. Across 100,000 simulations Bagent averaged 17.8 points with a simulated floor of 7.0 and a ceiling of 32.8, and he holds 10% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Chicago is a 3.5-point favorite at home against the Jets, with an implied team total of 23.5 in a game totaled at 43.5.
Running backs: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Christian McCaffrey, SF vs DEN ($8,200)
Christian McCaffrey carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 21.4 DraftKings points at $8,200, the 2nd-highest on the entire main slate. That is 0.2 points clear of Jonathan Taylor. The model gives him 14.4 carries and 5.6 targets. The salary works out to 2.61 projected points per $1,000, 5th of 14 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations McCaffrey averaged 21.4 points with a simulated floor of 9.8 and a ceiling of 37.9, and he holds 25% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. San Francisco is a 3-point favorite at home against Denver, with an implied team total of 25.75 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Jonathan Taylor, IND at WAS ($7,800)
Jonathan Taylor projects 2nd at the position with 21.3 DraftKings points at $7,800, 3rd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 21.6 carries and 4.0 targets. The salary works out to 2.73 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 14 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Taylor averaged 21.3 points with a simulated floor of 9.4 and a ceiling of 37.3, and he holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Indianapolis is a 4.5-point favorite on the road against Washington, with an implied team total of 25.5 in a game totaled at 46.5.
Jaylen Warren, PIT at CLE ($6,700)
Jaylen Warren projects 3rd at the position with 18.8 DraftKings points at $6,700, 5th on the main slate overall. The model gives him 18.4 carries and 5.1 targets. The current projection of 18.8 compares with a saved model baseline of 20.0. The salary works out to 2.81 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 14 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Warren averaged 18.7 points with a simulated floor of 9.0 and a ceiling of 33.0, and he holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite on the road against Cleveland, with an implied team total of 20.5 in a game totaled at 38.5.
Value: Braelon Allen, NYJ at CHI ($5,400)
Braelon Allen projects for 14.1 DraftKings points at $5,400, which works out to 2.61 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 14 running backs the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 19.3 carries and 3.3 targets. The current projection of 14.1 compares with a saved model baseline of 12.6. Across 100,000 simulations Allen averaged 14.1 points with a simulated floor of 5.0 and a ceiling of 28.8, and he holds 9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog on the road against Chicago, with an implied team total of 20 in a game totaled at 43.5.
Wide receivers: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs LAC ($8,800)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 21.5 DraftKings points at $8,800, the highest on the entire main slate. That is 4.4 points clear of Garrett Wilson. The model gives him 9.6 targets on 24.8 routes. The current projection of 21.5 compares with a saved model baseline of 21.0. The salary works out to 2.44 projected points per $1,000, 3rd of 18 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 21.5 points with a simulated floor of 9.4 and a ceiling of 40.6, and he holds 18% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 7-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 24.75 in a game totaled at 42.5.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ at CHI ($6,600)
Garrett Wilson projects 2nd at the position with 17.1 DraftKings points at $6,600. The model gives him 10.1 targets on 33.6 routes. The current projection of 17.1 compares with a saved model baseline of 16.4. The salary works out to 2.58 projected points per $1,000, 2nd of 18 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Wilson averaged 17.1 points with a simulated floor of 5.8 and a ceiling of 37.3, and he holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog on the road against Chicago, with an implied team total of 20 in a game totaled at 43.5.
Josh Downs, IND at WAS ($6,000)
Josh Downs projects 3rd at the position with 16.2 DraftKings points at $6,000. The model gives him 8.3 targets on 26.6 routes. The salary works out to 2.69 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 18 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Downs averaged 16.1 points with a simulated floor of 4.8 and a ceiling of 36.5, and he holds 23% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Indianapolis is a 4.5-point favorite on the road against Washington, with an implied team total of 25.5 in a game totaled at 46.5.
Value: Stefon Diggs, WAS vs IND ($5,500)
Stefon Diggs projects for 13.0 DraftKings points at $5,500, which works out to 2.37 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 18 wide receivers the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 6.9 targets on 23.8 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Diggs averaged 13.0 points with a simulated floor of 2.5 and a ceiling of 33.6, and he holds 11% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Washington is a 4.5-point underdog at home against Indianapolis, with an implied team total of 21 in a game totaled at 46.5.
Tight ends: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Trey McBride, ARI at NYG ($6,700)
Trey McBride carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 17.1 DraftKings points at $6,700. That is 1.5 points clear of Tyler Warren. The model gives him 11.2 targets on 34.5 routes. The salary works out to 2.56 projected points per $1,000, 7th of 13 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations McBride averaged 17.1 points with a simulated floor of 6.5 and a ceiling of 35.2, and he holds 8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 2.5-point favorite on the road against the Giants, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 43.5.
Tyler Warren, IND at WAS ($5,000)
Tyler Warren projects 2nd at the position with 15.6 DraftKings points at $5,000. The model gives him 7.8 targets on 27.4 routes. The salary works out to 3.12 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 13 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Warren averaged 15.6 points with a simulated floor of 5.6 and a ceiling of 32.5, and he holds 22% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Indianapolis is a 4.5-point favorite on the road against Washington, with an implied team total of 25.5 in a game totaled at 46.5.
Value: AJ Barner, SEA vs LAC ($3,200)
AJ Barner projects for 9.3 DraftKings points at $3,200, which works out to 2.91 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 13 tight ends the model projects for 7 or more points. The model gives him 3.4 targets on 19.2 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Barner averaged 9.3 points with a simulated floor of 1.3 and a ceiling of 25.1, and he holds 11% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 7-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 24.75 in a game totaled at 42.5.
Defenses: Week 4 DraftKings projections
Vikings, MIN vs MIA ($3,100)
Vikings carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 8.6 DraftKings points at $3,100. That is 0.0 points clear of Seahawks. The salary works out to 2.77 projected points per $1,000, 3rd of 8 at the position. Across 100,000 simulations Vikings averaged 8.7 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 15.3, and it holds 6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Minnesota is a 10-point favorite at home against Miami, with an implied team total of 24.25 in a game totaled at 38.5.
Value: Cardinals, ARI at NYG ($2,200)
Cardinals projects for 6.8 DraftKings points at $2,200, which works out to 3.10 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 8 defenses the model projects for 6 or more points. Across 100,000 simulations Cardinals averaged 6.9 points with a simulated floor of -0.1 and a ceiling of 15.9, and it holds 25% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 2.5-point favorite on the road against the Giants, with an implied team total of 23 in a game totaled at 43.5.
The sim's favorite plays
The main slate was simulated 100,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field. These five players hold the most winning-lineup credit.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | Winning-lineup credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | $7,800 | 30% |
| Cardinals | ARI | DST | $2,200 | 25% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $8,200 | 25% |
| Josh Downs | IND | WR | $6,000 | 23% |
| Tyler Warren | IND | TE | $5,000 | 22% |
Week 4 NFL DFS stack to build around (DraftKings)
Of the quarterback stacks in Chris Spags' Week 4 main-slate pool with at least 50 simulated lineups, this one had the strongest simulated return, weighted by how many lineups back it: the 212 lineups built on it cashed 26.8% of the time across 100,000 simulations.
| Role | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $6,000 | 18.8 |
| Stack | Chig Okonkwo | WAS | TE | $3,300 | 8.1 |
| Stack total | $9,300 | 26.9 |
That leaves $40,700 of the $50,000 cap for the other 7 roster spots.
Every Top Stack ranked by simulated return is in the Splash Play NFL tool for members, and complete lineups with one-click DraftKings export come with Apex. See plans →
Week 4 game totals, spreads and implied points
DEN at SF carries the highest total on the slate at 48.5. Minnesota is the biggest favorite, laying 10 against Miami. The three highest implied team totals belong to SF (25.75), IND (25.5) and SEA (24.75). Lines are as of October 5, 11:08 AM ET and move before lock.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied points |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ SF | 48.5 | SF -3 | DEN 22.75 · SF 25.75 |
| IND @ WAS | 46.5 | IND -4.5 | IND 25.5 · WAS 21 |
| NYJ @ CHI | 43.5 | CHI -3.5 | NYJ 20 · CHI 23.5 |
| ARI @ NYG | 43.5 | ARI -2.5 | ARI 23 · NYG 20.5 |
| LAC @ SEA | 42.5 | SEA -7 | LAC 17.75 · SEA 24.75 |
| PIT @ CLE | 38.5 | PIT -2.5 | PIT 20.5 · CLE 18 |
| MIA @ MIN | 38.5 | MIN -10 | MIA 14.25 · MIN 24.25 |
Full Week 4 NFL DFS projections by position (DraftKings)
Every SPAGS model projection at each position for the Week 4 DraftKings main slate, ranked by projected points, from the October 5, 11:08 AM ET run.
Week 4 quarterback projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | SF vs DEN | $6,500 | 19.3 | 2.97 |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | WAS vs IND | $6,000 | 18.8 | 3.13 |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | MIN vs MIA | $5,200 | 18.1 | 3.48 |
| 4 | Bo Nix | DEN at SF | $5,600 | 17.9 | 3.19 |
| 5 | Daniel Jones | IND at WAS | $5,000 | 17.8 | 3.56 |
| 6 | Tyson Bagent | CHI vs NYJ | $4,700 | 17.8 | 3.79 |
| 7 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI at NYG | $5,500 | 17.4 | 3.16 |
| 8 | Sam Darnold | SEA vs LAC | $5,800 | 16.5 | 2.85 |
| 9 | Deshaun Watson | CLE vs PIT | $5,100 | 16.2 | 3.18 |
| 10 | Justin Herbert | LAC at SEA | $5,100 | 16.1 | 3.16 |
| 11 | Geno Smith | NYJ at CHI | $5,000 | 15.6 | 3.12 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | NYG vs ARI | $4,800 | 14.9 | 3.11 |
| 13 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT at CLE | $5,300 | 14.7 | 2.78 |
| 14 | Malik Willis | MIA at MIN | $4,600 | 14.3 | 3.11 |
Week 4 running back projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF vs DEN | $8,200 | 21.4 | 2.61 |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | IND at WAS | $7,800 | 21.3 | 2.73 |
| 3 | Jaylen Warren | PIT at CLE | $6,700 | 18.8 | 2.81 |
| 4 | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN vs MIA | $6,500 | 17.9 | 2.76 |
| 5 | Jeremiyah Love | ARI at NYG | $6,100 | 16.7 | 2.74 |
| 6 | Cam Skattebo | NYG vs ARI | $6,000 | 14.5 | 2.42 |
| 7 | Braelon Allen | NYJ at CHI | $5,400 | 14.1 | 2.61 |
| 8 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs LAC | $5,300 | 13.7 | 2.58 |
| 9 | D'Andre Swift | CHI vs NYJ | $6,200 | 13.5 | 2.18 |
| 10 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs PIT | $5,700 | 11.8 | 2.08 |
| 11 | RJ Harvey | DEN at SF | $5,200 | 10.6 | 2.04 |
| 12 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN at SF | $5,000 | 10.4 | 2.08 |
| 13 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS vs IND | $4,900 | 10.3 | 2.11 |
| 14 | Omarion Hampton | LAC at SEA | $6,000 | 9.0 | 1.50 |
| 15 | George Holani | SEA vs LAC | $4,500 | 8.8 | 1.95 |
| 16 | Kyle Monangai | CHI vs NYJ | $5,200 | 8.0 | 1.55 |
| 17 | Kaelon Black | SF vs DEN | $4,700 | 7.5 | 1.61 |
| 18 | Jaylen Wright | MIA at MIN | $4,800 | 6.7 | 1.39 |
| 19 | Keaton Mitchell | LAC at SEA | $4,500 | 5.7 | 1.26 |
| 20 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA at MIN | $5,300 | 5.5 | 1.04 |
| 21 | Najee Harris | NYG vs ARI | $4,500 | 5.3 | 1.19 |
| 22 | Raheim Sanders | CLE vs PIT | $4,700 | 5.3 | 1.13 |
| 23 | Austin Ekeler | WAS vs IND | $4,400 | 5.1 | 1.15 |
| 24 | Kimani Vidal | LAC at SEA | $4,300 | 4.5 | 1.04 |
| 25 | Isaiah Davis | NYJ at CHI | $4,200 | 4.2 | 0.99 |
| 26 | Tyler Allgeier | ARI at NYG | $5,100 | 4.1 | 0.80 |
| 27 | Seth McGowan | IND at WAS | $4,300 | 3.5 | 0.82 |
| 28 | Kaytron Allen | WAS vs IND | $4,100 | 3.1 | 0.77 |
| 29 | Tyler Badie | DEN at SF | $4,200 | 3.1 | 0.75 |
| 30 | DJ Herman | MIA at MIN | $4,000 | 2.8 | 0.70 |
| 31 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG vs ARI | $4,000 | 2.5 | 0.64 |
| 32 | Travis Homer | PIT at CLE | $4,000 | 2.5 | 0.63 |
Week 4 wide receiver projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs LAC | $8,800 | 21.5 | 2.44 |
| 2 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ at CHI | $6,600 | 17.1 | 2.58 |
| 3 | Josh Downs | IND at WAS | $6,000 | 16.2 | 2.69 |
| 4 | Michael Wilson | ARI at NYG | $6,200 | 13.9 | 2.25 |
| 5 | Jordan Addison | MIN vs MIA | $5,800 | 13.8 | 2.38 |
| 6 | Stefon Diggs | WAS vs IND | $5,500 | 13.0 | 2.37 |
| 7 | Jaylen Waddle | DEN at SF | $6,100 | 12.9 | 2.11 |
| 8 | Malik Nabers | NYG vs ARI | $6,300 | 12.1 | 1.92 |
| 9 | Luther Burden III | CHI vs NYJ | $4,900 | 11.4 | 2.33 |
| 10 | Ladd McConkey | LAC at SEA | $5,600 | 11.1 | 1.97 |
| 11 | DK Metcalf | PIT at CLE | $5,400 | 10.7 | 1.99 |
| 12 | Mike Evans | SF vs DEN | $6,500 | 10.4 | 1.61 |
| 13 | Malik Washington | MIA at MIN | $4,600 | 10.1 | 2.20 |
| 14 | KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE vs PIT | $4,200 | 9.8 | 2.33 |
| 15 | Courtland Sutton | DEN at SF | $4,600 | 9.6 | 2.09 |
| 16 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs DEN | $5,500 | 9.3 | 1.69 |
| 17 | Denzel Boston | CLE vs PIT | $5,200 | 9.2 | 1.76 |
| 18 | Quentin Johnston | LAC at SEA | $5,100 | 9.0 | 1.76 |
| 19 | Kalif Raymond | CHI vs NYJ | $3,900 | 8.9 | 2.28 |
| 20 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI at NYG | $4,400 | 8.3 | 1.90 |
| 21 | Tre' Harris | LAC at SEA | $4,100 | 8.2 | 1.99 |
| 22 | Rome Odunze | CHI vs NYJ | $4,700 | 8.1 | 1.72 |
| 23 | Antonio Williams | WAS vs IND | $3,800 | 8.1 | 2.13 |
| 24 | Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT at CLE | $4,400 | 8.1 | 1.83 |
| 25 | Chris Bell | MIA at MIN | $3,600 | 7.5 | 2.07 |
| 26 | Jauan Jennings | MIN vs MIA | $4,100 | 7.4 | 1.80 |
| 27 | Laquon Treadwell | IND at WAS | $3,600 | 7.1 | 1.98 |
| 28 | Rashid Shaheed | SEA vs LAC | $4,000 | 7.0 | 1.74 |
| 29 | Cooper Kupp | SEA vs LAC | $3,800 | 6.7 | 1.76 |
| 30 | Malachi Fields | NYG vs ARI | $4,300 | 6.7 | 1.56 |
| 31 | Roman Wilson | PIT at CLE | $3,700 | 6.3 | 1.71 |
| 32 | Pat Bryant | DEN at SF | $4,000 | 6.2 | 1.56 |
| 33 | Isaiah Williams | NYJ at CHI | $3,700 | 6.0 | 1.61 |
| 34 | Treylon Burks | WAS vs IND | $3,200 | 5.6 | 1.74 |
| 35 | Tai Felton | MIN vs MIA | $3,000 | 5.5 | 1.83 |
| 36 | Darnell Mooney | NYG vs ARI | $3,800 | 5.5 | 1.44 |
| 37 | Sterling Shepard | NYJ at CHI | $3,000 | 5.3 | 1.78 |
| 38 | Kendrick Bourne | ARI at NYG | $3,400 | 5.2 | 1.54 |
| 39 | Kevin Coleman Jr. | MIA at MIN | $3,000 | 4.3 | 1.45 |
| 40 | Dyami Brown | WAS vs IND | $3,100 | 4.3 | 1.39 |
Week 4 tight end projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | ARI at NYG | $6,700 | 17.1 | 2.56 |
| 2 | Tyler Warren | IND at WAS | $5,000 | 15.6 | 3.12 |
| 3 | George Kittle | SF vs DEN | $5,200 | 15.4 | 2.97 |
| 4 | Isaiah Likely | NYG vs ARI | $4,300 | 11.3 | 2.62 |
| 5 | Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs PIT | $4,400 | 10.9 | 2.49 |
| 6 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN vs MIA | $4,800 | 10.7 | 2.23 |
| 7 | Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ at CHI | $3,800 | 10.6 | 2.79 |
| 8 | AJ Barner | SEA vs LAC | $3,200 | 9.3 | 2.91 |
| 9 | Colston Loveland | CHI vs NYJ | $4,600 | 9.3 | 2.01 |
| 10 | Greg Dulcich | MIA at MIN | $3,100 | 8.4 | 2.73 |
| 11 | Oronde Gadsden II | LAC at SEA | $3,600 | 8.4 | 2.32 |
| 12 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT at CLE | $3,900 | 8.4 | 2.15 |
| 13 | Chig Okonkwo | WAS vs IND | $3,300 | 8.1 | 2.46 |
| 14 | Evan Engram | DEN at SF | $2,800 | 6.7 | 2.39 |
| 15 | Darnell Washington | PIT at CLE | $2,900 | 6.5 | 2.26 |
| 16 | Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ at CHI | $2,500 | 5.8 | 2.32 |
Week 4 defense projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikings | MIN vs MIA | $3,100 | 8.6 | 2.77 |
| 2 | Seahawks | SEA vs LAC | $2,800 | 8.6 | 3.06 |
| 3 | Bears | CHI vs NYJ | $2,900 | 7.9 | 2.73 |
| 4 | Steelers | PIT at CLE | $3,300 | 7.6 | 2.31 |
| 5 | Cardinals | ARI at NYG | $2,200 | 6.8 | 3.10 |
| 6 | Browns | CLE vs PIT | $2,800 | 6.7 | 2.41 |
| 7 | Giants | NYG vs ARI | $2,600 | 6.4 | 2.47 |
| 8 | Colts | IND at WAS | $2,500 | 6.2 | 2.49 |
| 9 | Chargers | LAC at SEA | $2,300 | 5.7 | 2.47 |
| 10 | Dolphins | MIA at MIN | $2,000 | 5.3 | 2.67 |
| 11 | 49ers | SF vs DEN | $2,400 | 5.3 | 2.22 |
| 12 | Jets | NYJ at CHI | $2,700 | 5.2 | 1.91 |
Floors, ceilings, simulated win rates, ownership and one-click DraftKings and FanDuel exports for every player are in the Splash Play NFL tool. Open the NFL DFS tool →
NFL DFS Week 4 projections FAQ
Who has the highest NFL DFS projection for Week 4?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, WR) has the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 4 DraftKings main slate at 21.5 points for $8,800, as of October 5, 11:08 AM ET.
Who is the top quarterback projection for Week 4 on DraftKings?
Brock Purdy leads the Week 4 quarterbacks at 19.3 projected DraftKings points for $6,500, vs DEN.
What is the best NFL DFS stack for Week 4?
Build around Jayden Daniels with Chig Okonkwo. Among quarterback stacks with at least 50 lineups in Chris Spags' simulated Week 4 pool, it had the strongest simulated return, weighted by how many lineups back it, cashing 26.8% of the time. The two players cost $9,300.
What is the best NFL DFS value play for Week 4?
Among players projected for at least 10 points, Tyson Bagent (QB, $4,700) returns the most projected points per $1,000 of salary at 3.79, projected for 17.8.
Which game has the highest total in NFL Week 4?
DEN at SF has the highest total on the Week 4 DraftKings main slate at 48.5 points, as of October 5, 11:08 AM ET. Lines move before lock.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
How are the SPAGS NFL DFS projections made?
SPAGS projections come from the Splash Play NFL model, built by Chris Spags from player workload, efficiency and game environment. The slate is then simulated 100,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field to measure winning-lineup credit.
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