How Polymarket US Prices Work
Polymarket US's market-data page says every contract is priced between $0 and $1 and that the price "represents the market's collective belief about how likely an outcome is": $0.25 means roughly a 25% chance. It says prices aren't set by Polymarket; they come from traders' buy and sell orders in a central limit order book.
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- Referral terms: code SPLASH is for first-time Polymarket US users who sign up with it, finish onboarding, agree to the Polymarket US Rulebook, deposit at least $10 and make at least $1 of trades within 90 days of using the code. The welcome offer's own deposit window is shorter: 7 days.
From cents to a probability
Polymarket US's market-data page lays out the mapping with three examples.
How Polymarket US describes contract prices
| Price | What Polymarket US says it means |
|---|---|
| $0.25 | The market thinks there's roughly a 25% chance |
| $0.50 | Coin flip: the market is undecided |
| $0.75 | The market thinks it's likely (75% chance) |
The same page gives the payout arithmetic: "If you buy a YES contract at $0.55 and the outcome happens, the contract settles at $1.00 — you profit $0.45 per contract. If it doesn't happen, it settles at $0.00 and you lose your $0.55."
The app can show the same number either way. In its display settings you can pick price in cents or percent; Polymarket US's example shows one live game as WAS 17¢ / KC 86¢ in price mode and WAS 17% / KC 86% in percent mode.
Where the price comes from
Polymarket US's market-data page says it runs a "central limit order book" and that prices "come from traders placing buy and sell orders against each other." It defines bids as buy orders, "the prices traders are willing to pay," and asks as sell orders, "the prices traders are willing to accept." Its overview adds that the platform "does not take the other side of your trades and does not set prices."
The same page calls the highest bid and the lowest ask the BBO, the best bid and offer, and says "this is the price you'd trade at if you placed a market order right now."
The spread, and why the price you see isn't always the price you get
Polymarket US's spread guide defines the spread as the gap between the bid and the ask, and says "a wider gap means you may pay more when buying or receive less when selling." Its key points, in close paraphrase:
- When you buy with a market order, you pay the ask.
- When you sell with a market order, you receive the bid.
- Tighter spreads usually show up in more liquid markets, and wider ones in markets with fewer people trading.
- Your execution price depends on the bid, the ask and how much size is available at each level.
Market orders and limit orders
Polymarket US's market-data page says a market order "fills immediately at the best available price on the other side of the book," which makes you a taker. A limit order at a specific price that doesn't fill right away "sits on the book waiting," and you are a maker, "providing liquidity for others to trade against." If a limit order's price crosses the best price on the other side, the page says it fills immediately, like a market order.
Whether you take or make liquidity also affects fees. Our Polymarket US fees page has the formula and Polymarket US's own worked examples.
One instrument per outcome
Polymarket US's market-structure page says every binary market has "only one instrument": buying it takes the YES side, and selling (shorting) it takes the NO side. To take the NO side you buy No, or in a two-team market the other team, and "the exchange records it as a short position in the instrument." The page says "the profit/loss works exactly as if you owned a NO share."
When a market settles
Polymarket US's settlement page says that when a market resolves, "winning contracts settle at $1.00" and "losing contracts settle at $0.00," and that Polymarket Clearing updates balances automatically in your Portfolio. It adds that some markets have predefined alternative settlement terms, shown under Market Rules on the market page.
What the price is, and what it isn't
Polymarket US's own definition of a price, on its market-data page, is "the market's collective belief about how likely an outcome is." Nothing on this page is a view on whether any market's price is right; we report what Polymarket US says about the number, not what to do with it.
If you want to see live prices for yourself, a new account can start with a small deposit. The Polymarket US promo code page has the offer and the risk terms.
FAQ
Sources
- Polymarket US: Prices & Market Data: https://docs.polymarket.us/concepts/market-data
- Polymarket US: Spreads: https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/trading/basics/spread
- Polymarket US: Market Structure: https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/trading/basics/buying-yes-vs-selling-no
- CFTC: Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts: https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets
- Polymarket US: What is Polymarket US?: https://docs.polymarket.us/getting-started/what-is-polymarket-us
- Polymarket US Learn: the price and percent display setting page (Learn, Trading, Prices and fees), saved October 20, 2026
- Polymarket US: Market Settlement: https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/markets/contract-settlement
All sources read October 20, 2026.
PolymarketPartner · Paid partnership with Polymarket. Polymarket US is for people 18 or older. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to make any trade, and any list of markets is information only and not a view on any market.