DFS Variance Explained With a Worked Example

By Splash Play Staff · A guide to reading the tools

Variance in DFS is how spread out a player's or a lineup's possible scores are. Two players can project for the same number and have completely different ranges. The average tells you where the middle is. Variance tells you how far from the middle the night can go, in both directions.

Same average, different player

Two made-up players, five possible scores each:

	Possible scores	Average	Lowest to highest
Player A	18, 19, 20, 21, 22	20	18 to 22
Player B	0, 10, 20, 30, 40	20	0 to 40

Both project for 20. A is within two points of it every time. B is within two points of it once in five, and he can score 40 or nothing.

Putting a number on it

The usual measure is standard deviation, the typical distance from the average. For A it is about 1.4 points. For B it is about 14.1. Ten times the spread, on the same projection. In the tools you see the same idea as a floor and a ceiling: A's are close together and B's are far apart.

Why it matters for the contest you are in

Whether you want the spread depends on what the contest pays for.

Where roughly half the field cashes, you need to beat the middle. A is the better fit. His 18 still helps you and he never gives you a zero.
Where most of the money is at the top, you need a score few lineups reach. B's 40 can get you there. A's 22 cannot.

That is the difference between the Cash frequency and Pure upside views of a lineup pool: one emphasizes modeled cash rate, the other modeled wins and top-10 finishes. They sort the same lineups differently because they want different things from the spread.

What variance is not

More spread is not better or worse by itself. B's ceiling comes with B's floor, and you take both. A wide range also does not make the high end likely: B scores 40 one time in five here, and he scores 10 or less two times in five.

And real players are not symmetric. Many have a floor near their average and a long tail above it. Read the floor and the ceiling separately; don't assume they sit the same distance from the projection.

Where to see it

Simulation results are part of Squirt Squad VIP and Apex. Open the NFL tool for the current slate, read the field guide for the step-by-step workflow, or compare memberships. Simulation results are model outputs. They describe a range, not what will happen.