What a DFS Projection Means (and What One Game Can't Prove)

By Splash Play Staff · A guide to reading the tools

A DFS projection is a forecast of the middle of a range of outcomes. A player projected for 20 points is not expected to score exactly 20. He is expected to land around it, and on any one night he can finish at 8 or at 35 without that one result proving the projection was wrong. Use it to compare players, not to predict a box score.

What a 20-point projection says

It says 20 is the model's central estimate for this player, with this role, in this game. It says nothing by itself about how wide the range is. Two players can both project for 20 with very different floors and ceilings, which is the reason the simulations exist.

It is also tied to a scoring system. A DraftKings projection and a FanDuel projection for the same player are different numbers, and they are not interchangeable.

What moves a projection

For NFL, the model starts from each team's expected plays and implied points, splits targets, carries and dropbacks by role, and adjusts for the opponent. So the things that should change your read of a projection are the things that change those inputs:

Role. A starter is ruled out and his work goes to someone else.
Game environment. The expected pace or scoring of the game changes.
Status. A player is limited, or returns sooner than expected.

When one of those changes, the projection should change. When none of them has, a number that "feels low" is your opinion against the inputs. Sometimes your opinion is right. Know which one you are relying on.

Why one result proves little

Say a player projected for 20 scores 8. There are two very different stories. In one, the inputs were wrong: he was listed as the starter and lost the job by the second quarter. In the other, the inputs were right and the game went badly. The first tells you something about the projection. The second is what the bottom of a range looks like.

The score from one game cannot tell those apart, and neither can one good week. A handful of results is a question, not a verdict.

How to use it before lock

Compare players at the same position and price on the same site.
Check the role behind the number before the number.
Look at the range, not only the middle, when the contest rewards a ceiling.
Re-check anyone whose team has late news.

Where to see it

The free weekly NFL DFS projections and Showdown breakdowns list the current week's projections by position. Squirt Squad covers matchup screens and projection matrices. Squirt Squad VIP adds SPAGS projections, exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and the Portfolio Builder for NFL and MLB. Compare memberships. Projections are forecasts, not a promise of results.