Chargers vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown Picks: Monday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Chargers vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown?
Derrick Henry has the highest SPAGS projection in the Chargers at Ravens DraftKings Showdown: 15.7 points at $10,000 FLEX, 23.5 at captain for $15,000. Across 10,000 simulations Henry holds 67% of the winning-lineup credit. Justin Herbert holds the most, at 72%. The case against Henry is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 4.8 points at a $10,000 FLEX salary, in a game with a 38.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 22.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Henry at captain. Zay Flowers is the next captain in line, at 19.8%. The model gives him 6.3 targets on 19.8 routes.
Baltimore is a 4.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 21.5 for the Ravens and 17 for the Chargers. Neither number describes a shootout. Both describe a game where somebody has to carry the ball.
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Behind Henry and Flowers, the next projections are Jacoby Brissett (15.0, $9,200), Justin Herbert (14.8, $9,000) and Tre' Harris (8.7, $6,800).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the November 14, 3:57 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
MNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Derrick Henry, BAL RB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Derrick Henry holds 22.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $15,000 and the 15.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 23.5 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 19.6 carries and 1.2 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Henry averaged 15.7 points with a simulated floor of 4.8 and a ceiling of 33.1. He holds 67% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 22.0% as the captain and 45.3% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Zay Flowers, BAL WR ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Zay Flowers holds 19.8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,600 and the 14.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 22.2 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 6.3 targets on 19.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Flowers averaged 14.6 points with a simulated floor of 2.3 and a ceiling of 39.2. He holds 53% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 19.8% as the captain and 33.6% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Justin Herbert, LAC QB ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Justin Herbert holds 15.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $13,500 and the 14.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 22.2 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 4.1 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Herbert averaged 15.0 points with a simulated floor of 4.7 and a ceiling of 30.2. He holds 72% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 15.7% as the captain and 56.2% in a FLEX spot.
Chargers vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 2,998 lineups in Chris Spags' MNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (18 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 190,249-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | $15,600 | 22.2 |
| FLEX | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $10,000 | 15.7 |
| FLEX | Jacoby Brissett | BAL | QB | $9,200 | 15.0 |
| FLEX | Tre' Harris | LAC | WR | $6,800 | 8.7 |
| Core total | $41,600 | 61.5 |
That leaves $8,400 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Jacoby Brissett at $13,800, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 12 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Entering more than one lineup tonight? This core is one of 2,998 lineups in Chris's Chargers-Ravens pool. All of them, with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex — $33.33/wk →
Top FLEX projections for Chargers vs Ravens
Jacoby Brissett, BAL QB ($9,200 FLEX / $13,800 CPT)
Jacoby Brissett carries the 2nd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.0 DraftKings points for a $9,200 FLEX salary ($13,800 at captain). The model includes 3.0 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Brissett averaged 15.1 points with a simulated floor of 4.6 and a ceiling of 31.0. He holds 72% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 14.2% as the captain and 57.5% in a FLEX spot.
Tre' Harris, LAC WR ($6,800 FLEX / $10,200 CPT)
Tre' Harris carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 8.7 DraftKings points for a $6,800 FLEX salary ($10,200 at captain). The model gives him 4.4 targets on 20.9 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Harris averaged 8.6 points with a simulated floor of 1.5 and a ceiling of 20.0. He holds 32% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.9% as the captain and 28.3% in a FLEX spot.
Ladd McConkey, LAC WR ($8,400 FLEX / $12,600 CPT)
Ladd McConkey carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 8.5 DraftKings points for an $8,400 FLEX salary ($12,600 at captain). The model gives him 4.4 targets on 20.4 routes. Across 10,000 simulations McConkey averaged 8.4 points with a simulated floor of 0.5 and a ceiling of 23.1. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.1% as the captain and 24.0% in a FLEX spot.
Omarion Hampton, LAC RB ($7,800 FLEX / $11,700 CPT)
Omarion Hampton carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 8.3 DraftKings points for a $7,800 FLEX salary ($11,700 at captain). The model gives him 11.7 carries and 1.8 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Hampton averaged 8.4 points with a simulated floor of 3.0 and a ceiling of 15.8. He holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.9% as the captain and 26.0% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Ravens, BAL DST ($4,000 FLEX / $6,000 CPT)
Ravens projects for 7.6 DraftKings points at a $4,000 FLEX salary, 1.90 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Ravens averaged 7.5 points with a simulated floor of -1.8 and a ceiling of 15.5. It holds 40% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.9% as the captain and 37.8% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Chargers, LAC DST ($3,400 FLEX / $5,100 CPT)
Chargers projects for 5.7 DraftKings points at a $3,400 FLEX salary, 1.68 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Chargers averaged 5.8 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 14.3. It holds 21% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.9% as the captain and 20.1% in a FLEX spot.
Chargers vs Ravens Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 15.7 | 67% | 22.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | BAL | QB | $9,200 | $13,800 | 15.0 | 72% | 14.2% |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 14.8 | 72% | 15.7% |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | $10,400 | $15,600 | 14.8 | 53% | 19.8% |
| Tre' Harris | LAC | WR | $6,800 | $10,200 | 8.7 | 32% | 3.9% |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | $8,400 | $12,600 | 8.5 | 30% | 6.1% |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | $7,800 | $11,700 | 8.3 | 28% | 1.9% |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 7.6 | 40% | 1.9% |
Chargers vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Chargers at Ravens DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 15.7 | 23.5 | 1.57 |
| 2 | Jacoby Brissett | BAL | QB | $9,200 | $13,800 | 15.0 | 22.5 | 1.63 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 14.8 | 22.2 | 1.64 |
| 4 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | $10,400 | $15,600 | 14.8 | 22.2 | 1.42 |
| 5 | Tre' Harris | LAC | WR | $6,800 | $10,200 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 1.27 |
| 6 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | $8,400 | $12,600 | 8.5 | 12.7 | 1.01 |
| 7 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | $7,800 | $11,700 | 8.3 | 12.5 | 1.07 |
| 8 | Ravens | BAL | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 1.90 |
| 9 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 1.34 |
| 10 | Justice Hill | BAL | RB | $5,000 | $7,500 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 1.38 |
| 11 | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | $6,400 | $9,600 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 1.08 |
| 12 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | $7,400 | $11,100 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 0.93 |
| 13 | Keaton Mitchell | LAC | RB | $4,800 | $7,200 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 1.26 |
| 14 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | $3,800 | $5,700 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 1.56 |
| 15 | Kimani Vidal | LAC | RB | $5,800 | $8,700 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 1.01 |
| 16 | Ja'Kobi Lane | BAL | WR | $4,400 | $6,600 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 1.30 |
| 17 | Chargers | LAC | DST | $3,400 | $5,100 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 1.68 |
| 18 | Harrison Mevis | BAL | K | $4,600 | $6,900 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 0.82 |
| 19 | Riley Patterson | BAL | K | $4,600 | $6,900 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 0.82 |
| 20 | Oronde Gadsden II | LAC | TE | $3,000 | $4,500 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 1.06 |
| 21 | Charlie Kolar | LAC | TE | $2,600 | $3,900 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.16 |
| 22 | Matt Hibner | BAL | TE | $600 | $900 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 4.02 |
| 23 | Josh Cuevas | BAL | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 1.46 |
| 24 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | LAC | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.11 |
| 25 | Devontez Walker | BAL | WR | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.79 |
| 26 | Rasheen Ali | BAL | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.78 |
| 27 | LaJohntay Wester | BAL | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.50 |
| 28 | Derius Davis | LAC | WR | $400 | $600 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.47 |
| 29 | Nick Vannett | BAL | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.85 |
| 30 | Scott Matlock | LAC | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.70 |
Chargers vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Chargers vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown?
Derrick Henry holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 22.0%, ahead of Zay Flowers (19.8%) and Justin Herbert (15.7%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Chargers vs Ravens?
Build around Zay Flowers at captain with Derrick Henry, Jacoby Brissett and Tre' Harris at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (18 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $8,400 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Chargers vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown?
Derrick Henry leads the SPAGS model at 15.7 DraftKings points for $10,000 at FLEX, or 23.5 points at captain for $15,000.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Chargers vs Ravens Showdown?
Zay Flowers is the most expensive player at $10,400 FLEX and $15,600 at captain. All 30 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Chargers vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Ravens (7.6 points at $4,000), Chargers (5.7 points at $3,400) and Rashod Bateman (5.9 points at $3,800).
What is the Chargers vs Ravens spread and total?
The Ravens are a 4.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 38.5, with implied team totals of 21.5 for the Ravens and 17 for the Chargers.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
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