NFL DFS Projections Week 10: DraftKings Picks, Values and Sim Plays
Who are the top DraftKings NFL DFS plays in Week 10?
Bijan Robinson carries the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 10 DraftKings main slate: 28.8 DraftKings points at $8,200. He also holds 64% of the simulated winning-lineup credit across 10,000 simulations, more than any other player on the slate, with Javonte Williams second at 36% for $7,500.
Behind Robinson, the model's next four projections are Kenneth Walker III (26.6, $9,200), Javonte Williams (21.8, $7,500), Brock Purdy (21.5, $7,000) and Josh Allen (21.4, $7,500). Bijan Robinson returns the most per dollar of that group at 3.51 projected points per $1,000. George Pickens leads the wide receivers at 17.6 for $6,300, Brock Purdy leads the quarterbacks at 21.5 for $7,000, and Trey McBride leads the tight ends at 10.4 for $7,100.
The 10-game slate runs from a 55.5-point total in SF at DAL down to 39.5 in HOU at CLE. Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the November 10, 10:42 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup credit comes from 10,000 simulations of the contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
Top 5 SPAGS model projections for Week 10 (DraftKings)
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS model proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $8,200 | 28.8 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $9,200 | 26.6 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | $7,500 | 21.8 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | $7,000 | 21.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $7,500 | 21.4 |
Quarterbacks: Week 10 DraftKings projections
Brock Purdy, SF at DAL ($7,000)
Brock Purdy carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 21.5 DraftKings points at $7,000, the 4th-highest on the entire main slate. That is 0.1 points clear of Josh Allen. The model includes 4.7 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 3.07 projected points per $1,000, 7th of 17 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Purdy averaged 21.4 points with a simulated floor of 8.5 and a ceiling of 38.8, and he holds 16% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. San Francisco is a 4.5-point favorite on the road against Dallas, with an implied team total of 30 in a game totaled at 55.5.
Josh Allen, BUF at NYJ ($7,500)
Josh Allen projects 2nd at the position with 21.4 DraftKings points at $7,500, 5th on the main slate overall. The model includes 7.8 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 2.85 projected points per $1,000, 14th of 17 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Allen averaged 21.5 points with a simulated floor of 8.0 and a ceiling of 39.4, and he holds 12% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Buffalo is an 8.5-point favorite on the road against the Jets, with an implied team total of 29.5 in a game totaled at 50.5.
Value: Carson Beck, ARI vs LAR ($4,200)
Carson Beck projects for 16.7 DraftKings points at $4,200, which works out to 3.97 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 17 quarterbacks the model projects for 15 or more points. The model includes 3.9 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Beck averaged 16.7 points with a simulated floor of 6.4 and a ceiling of 29.9, and he holds 6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 9.5-point underdog at home against the Rams, with an implied team total of 15.5 in a game totaled at 40.5.
Running backs: Week 10 DraftKings projections
Bijan Robinson, ATL vs KC ($8,200)
Bijan Robinson carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 28.8 DraftKings points at $8,200, the highest on the entire main slate. That is 2.2 points clear of Kenneth Walker III. The model gives him 21.0 carries and 6.7 targets. The salary works out to 3.51 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 20 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Robinson averaged 28.8 points with a simulated floor of 16.2 and a ceiling of 45.6, and he holds 64% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Atlanta is a 3.5-point underdog at home against Kansas City, with an implied team total of 21 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Kenneth Walker III, KC at ATL ($9,200)
Kenneth Walker III projects 2nd at the position with 26.6 DraftKings points at $9,200, 2nd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 17.6 carries and 5.8 targets. The salary works out to 2.89 projected points per $1,000, 5th of 20 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Walker averaged 26.5 points with a simulated floor of 14.0 and a ceiling of 43.5, and he holds 34% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Kansas City is a 3.5-point favorite on the road against Atlanta, with an implied team total of 24.5 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Javonte Williams, DAL vs SF ($7,500)
Javonte Williams projects 3rd at the position with 21.8 DraftKings points at $7,500, 3rd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 19.9 carries and 4.4 targets. The salary works out to 2.91 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 20 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 21.7 points with a simulated floor of 9.4 and a ceiling of 39.9, and he holds 36% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Dallas is a 4.5-point underdog at home against San Francisco, with an implied team total of 25.5 in a game totaled at 55.5.
Value: Ashton Jeanty, LV vs SEA ($5,400)
Ashton Jeanty projects for 16.1 DraftKings points at $5,400, which works out to 2.98 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 20 running backs the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 12.7 carries and 5.9 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Jeanty averaged 16.0 points with a simulated floor of 6.2 and a ceiling of 31.9, and he holds 12% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Las Vegas is a 3.5-point underdog at home against Seattle, with an implied team total of 20 in a game totaled at 43.5.
Wide receivers: Week 10 DraftKings projections
George Pickens, DAL vs SF ($6,300)
George Pickens carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 17.6 DraftKings points at $6,300. That is 2.6 points clear of Christian Watson. The model gives him 9.2 targets on 35.7 routes. The salary works out to 2.79 projected points per $1,000, 2nd of 13 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Pickens averaged 17.6 points with a simulated floor of 5.1 and a ceiling of 42.2, and he holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Dallas is a 4.5-point underdog at home against San Francisco, with an implied team total of 25.5 in a game totaled at 55.5.
Christian Watson, GB vs MIN ($7,700)
Christian Watson projects 2nd at the position with 15.0 DraftKings points at $7,700. The model gives him 7.3 targets on 21.0 routes. The salary works out to 1.95 projected points per $1,000, 9th of 13 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Watson averaged 14.9 points with a simulated floor of 2.4 and a ceiling of 39.9, and he holds 13% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite at home against Minnesota, with an implied team total of 23.5 in a game totaled at 42.5.
Chris Olave, NO vs CAR ($7,000)
Chris Olave projects 3rd at the position with 12.4 DraftKings points at $7,000. The model gives him 6.6 targets on 22.1 routes. The salary works out to 1.77 projected points per $1,000, 11th of 13 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Olave averaged 12.3 points with a simulated floor of 0.5 and a ceiling of 37.7, and he holds 11% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. New Orleans is a 1.5-point favorite at home against Carolina, with an implied team total of 25 in a game totaled at 48.5.
Value: Josh Cameron, JAX at TEN ($3,300)
Josh Cameron projects for 10.0 DraftKings points at $3,300, which works out to 3.03 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 13 wide receivers the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 5.2 targets on 18.7 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Cameron averaged 9.8 points with a simulated floor of 2.1 and a ceiling of 25.1, and he holds 22% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Jacksonville is a 10.5-point favorite on the road against Tennessee, with an implied team total of 28.5 in a game totaled at 46.5.
Tight ends: Week 10 DraftKings projections
Trey McBride, ARI vs LAR ($7,100)
Trey McBride carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 10.4 DraftKings points at $7,100. That is 0.9 points clear of T.J. Hockenson. The model gives him 5.8 targets on 16.7 routes. The salary works out to 1.47 projected points per $1,000, 6th of 8 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McBride averaged 10.5 points with a simulated floor of 0.2 and a ceiling of 31.8, and he holds 1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 9.5-point underdog at home against the Rams, with an implied team total of 15.5 in a game totaled at 40.5.
T.J. Hockenson, MIN at GB ($4,300)
T.J. Hockenson projects 2nd at the position with 9.5 DraftKings points at $4,300. The model gives him 5.1 targets on 14.5 routes. The salary works out to 2.22 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 8 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Hockenson averaged 9.4 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 31.2, and he holds 6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Minnesota is a 4.5-point underdog on the road against Green Bay, with an implied team total of 19 in a game totaled at 42.5.
Value: Elijah Higgins, ARI vs LAR ($2,500)
Elijah Higgins projects for 7.3 DraftKings points at $2,500, which works out to 2.92 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 8 tight ends the model projects for 7 or more points. The model gives him 4.4 targets on 16.7 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Higgins averaged 7.3 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 31.2, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 9.5-point underdog at home against the Rams, with an implied team total of 15.5 in a game totaled at 40.5.
Defenses: Week 10 DraftKings projections
Rams, LAR at ARI ($3,800)
Rams carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 8.5 DraftKings points at $3,800. That is 0.9 points clear of Jaguars. The salary works out to 2.23 projected points per $1,000, 3rd of 9 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Rams averaged 8.6 points with a simulated floor of -0.3 and a ceiling of 15.5, and it holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. The Rams are a 9.5-point favorite on the road against Arizona, with an implied team total of 25 in a game totaled at 40.5.
Value: Dolphins, MIA at IND ($2,600)
Dolphins projects for 6.0 DraftKings points at $2,600, which works out to 2.32 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 9 defenses the model projects for 6 or more points. Across 10,000 simulations Dolphins averaged 6.0 points with a simulated floor of -0.2 and a ceiling of 15.2, and it holds 6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Miami is a 2.5-point underdog on the road against Indianapolis, with an implied team total of 19 in a game totaled at 40.5.
Current boards on their own pages: All projections · QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · DST rankings · Value plays · Player pages
The sim's favorite plays
The main slate was simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field. These five players hold the most winning-lineup credit.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | Winning-lineup credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $8,200 | 64% |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | $7,500 | 36% |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $9,200 | 34% |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | $6,300 | 33% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | RB | $6,600 | 33% |
Week 10 NFL DFS stack to build around (DraftKings)
Of the quarterback stacks in Chris Spags' Week 10 main-slate pool with at least 50 simulated lineups, this one had the strongest simulated return, weighted by how many lineups back it: the 108 lineups built on it cashed 19.9% of the time across 10,000 simulations.
| Role | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Carson Beck | ARI | QB | $4,200 | 16.7 |
| Stack | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | $7,100 | 10.4 |
| Stack total | $11,300 | 27.1 |
That leaves $38,700 of the $50,000 cap for the other 7 roster spots.
Entering more than one lineup this week? The 108 lineups built on this Week 10 stack cashed 19.9% of the time across 10,000 simulations against a 356,718-entry field. The complete lineups from Chris Spags' Week 10 pool, with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex — $33.33/wk →
Week 10 game totals, spreads and implied points
SF at DAL carries the highest total on the slate at 55.5. Jacksonville is the biggest favorite, laying 10.5 against Tennessee. The three highest implied team totals belong to SF (30), BUF (29.5) and JAX (28.5). Lines are as of November 10, 10:42 AM ET and move before lock.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied points |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF @ DAL | 55.5 | SF -4.5 | SF 30 · DAL 25.5 |
| BUF @ NYJ | 50.5 | BUF -8.5 | BUF 29.5 · NYJ 21 |
| CAR @ NO | 48.5 | NO -1.5 | CAR 23.5 · NO 25 |
| JAX @ TEN | 46.5 | JAX -10.5 | JAX 28.5 · TEN 18 |
| KC @ ATL | 45.5 | KC -3.5 | KC 24.5 · ATL 21 |
| SEA @ LV | 43.5 | SEA -3.5 | SEA 23.5 · LV 20 |
| MIN @ GB | 42.5 | GB -4.5 | MIN 19 · GB 23.5 |
| LAR @ ARI | 40.5 | LAR -9.5 | LAR 25 · ARI 15.5 |
| MIA @ IND | 40.5 | IND -2.5 | MIA 19 · IND 21.5 |
| HOU @ CLE | 39.5 | HOU -4.5 | HOU 22 · CLE 17.5 |
Full Week 10 NFL DFS projections by position (DraftKings)
Every SPAGS model projection at each position for the Week 10 DraftKings main slate, ranked by projected points, from the November 10, 10:42 AM ET run.
Week 10 quarterback projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | SF at DAL | $7,000 | 21.5 | 3.07 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | BUF at NYJ | $7,500 | 21.4 | 2.85 |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | DAL vs SF | $6,400 | 19.3 | 3.02 |
| 4 | Tyler Shough | NO vs CAR | $5,600 | 19.1 | 3.41 |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX at TEN | $6,600 | 18.5 | 2.81 |
| 6 | Patrick Mahomes | KC at ATL | $6,000 | 18.0 | 3.00 |
| 7 | Drew Lock | SEA at LV | $5,000 | 17.9 | 3.58 |
| 8 | C.J. Stroud | HOU at CLE | $5,900 | 17.2 | 2.91 |
| 9 | Bryce Young | CAR at NO | $5,800 | 16.8 | 2.89 |
| 10 | Kirk Cousins | LV vs SEA | $5,300 | 16.7 | 3.15 |
| 11 | Geno Smith | NYJ vs BUF | $4,800 | 16.7 | 3.47 |
| 12 | Carson Beck | ARI vs LAR | $4,200 | 16.7 | 3.97 |
| 13 | Jordan Love | GB vs MIN | $6,500 | 16.6 | 2.56 |
| 14 | Deshaun Watson | CLE vs HOU | $5,100 | 16.6 | 3.26 |
| 15 | Matthew Stafford | LAR at ARI | $6,200 | 16.5 | 2.67 |
| 16 | Kyler Murray | MIN at GB | $5,400 | 16.3 | 3.01 |
Week 10 running back projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | ATL vs KC | $8,200 | 28.8 | 3.51 |
| 2 | Kenneth Walker III | KC at ATL | $9,200 | 26.6 | 2.89 |
| 3 | Javonte Williams | DAL vs SF | $7,500 | 21.8 | 2.91 |
| 4 | Kyren Williams | LAR at ARI | $7,100 | 19.5 | 2.75 |
| 5 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAX at TEN | $6,600 | 19.4 | 2.94 |
| 6 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR at NO | $7,200 | 19.4 | 2.69 |
| 7 | James Cook III | BUF at NYJ | $7,400 | 19.0 | 2.56 |
| 8 | Christian McCaffrey | SF at DAL | $8,500 | 18.0 | 2.12 |
| 9 | Ashton Jeanty | LV vs SEA | $5,400 | 16.1 | 2.98 |
| 10 | Jonathan Taylor | IND vs MIA | $7,800 | 15.9 | 2.04 |
| 11 | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN at GB | $5,600 | 13.0 | 2.33 |
| 12 | Breece Hall | NYJ vs BUF | $5,900 | 12.2 | 2.06 |
| 13 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs HOU | $5,500 | 12.0 | 2.18 |
| 14 | MarShawn Lloyd | GB vs MIN | $4,800 | 10.4 | 2.17 |
| 15 | Blake Corum | LAR at ARI | $5,100 | 10.4 | 2.04 |
| 16 | Tony Pollard | TEN vs JAX | $6,000 | 10.0 | 1.67 |
| 17 | Audric Estime | NO vs CAR | $4,500 | 9.9 | 2.21 |
| 18 | Alvin Kamara | NO vs CAR | $5,000 | 9.8 | 1.96 |
| 19 | Jordan Mason | MIN at GB | $5,300 | 9.1 | 1.72 |
| 20 | Braelon Allen | NYJ vs BUF | $5,400 | 9.0 | 1.67 |
| 21 | Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs LAR | $5,200 | 8.1 | 1.56 |
| 22 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA at IND | $5,800 | 8.0 | 1.38 |
| 23 | Evan Hull | ARI vs LAR | $4,000 | 7.9 | 1.97 |
| 24 | Kaleb Johnson | GB vs MIN | $4,600 | 7.8 | 1.68 |
| 25 | Pierre Strong Jr. | GB vs MIN | $4,300 | 7.7 | 1.78 |
| 26 | Woody Marks | HOU at CLE | $5,700 | 7.5 | 1.31 |
| 27 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX at TEN | $5,100 | 7.4 | 1.45 |
| 28 | Carlos Washington Jr. | MIA at IND | $4,000 | 7.4 | 1.85 |
| 29 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA at LV | $5,600 | 7.3 | 1.31 |
| 30 | Kaelon Black | SF at DAL | $5,000 | 7.3 | 1.46 |
| 31 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA at LV | $4,100 | 6.5 | 1.58 |
| 32 | David Montgomery | HOU at CLE | $5,200 | 6.5 | 1.24 |
Week 10 wide receiver projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Pickens | DAL vs SF | $6,300 | 17.6 | 2.79 |
| 2 | Christian Watson | GB vs MIN | $7,700 | 15.0 | 1.95 |
| 3 | Chris Olave | NO vs CAR | $7,000 | 12.4 | 1.77 |
| 4 | Carnell Tate | TEN vs JAX | $5,200 | 12.2 | 2.34 |
| 5 | Caleb Douglas | MIA at IND | $4,400 | 11.9 | 2.71 |
| 6 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR at NO | $6,700 | 11.3 | 1.69 |
| 7 | Keenan Allen | IND vs MIA | $5,100 | 11.3 | 2.22 |
| 8 | Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs JAX | $4,500 | 10.1 | 2.23 |
| 9 | Josh Cameron | JAX at TEN | $3,300 | 10.0 | 3.03 |
| 10 | Khalil Shakir | BUF at NYJ | $5,300 | 9.8 | 1.86 |
| 11 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ vs BUF | $6,500 | 9.8 | 1.50 |
| 12 | Reggie Virgil | ARI vs LAR | $3,400 | 9.3 | 2.74 |
| 13 | Kayshon Boutte | HOU at CLE | $3,800 | 9.0 | 2.38 |
| 14 | Rashid Shaheed | SEA at LV | $4,100 | 8.9 | 2.17 |
| 15 | Anthony Gould | IND vs MIA | $3,000 | 8.5 | 2.82 |
| 16 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL vs SF | $8,800 | 8.3 | 0.95 |
| 17 | Rashee Rice | KC at ATL | $6,100 | 8.3 | 1.37 |
| 18 | Tory Horton | SEA at LV | $3,100 | 8.3 | 2.69 |
| 19 | Denzel Boston | CLE vs HOU | $5,200 | 8.3 | 1.59 |
| 20 | John Metchie III | CAR at NO | $3,200 | 8.2 | 2.57 |
| 21 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA at LV | $9,300 | 8.1 | 0.87 |
| 22 | Mike Evans | SF at DAL | $6,000 | 8.0 | 1.32 |
| 23 | Devin Duvernay | ARI vs LAR | $3,000 | 7.9 | 2.64 |
| 24 | Devaughn Vele | NO vs CAR | $4,900 | 7.9 | 1.60 |
| 25 | Jahan Dotson | ATL vs KC | $3,600 | 7.8 | 2.18 |
| 26 | Konata Mumpfield | LAR at ARI | $4,000 | 7.8 | 1.96 |
| 27 | Jack Bech | LV vs SEA | $3,000 | 7.8 | 2.61 |
| 28 | Keon Coleman | BUF at NYJ | $4,600 | 7.5 | 1.64 |
| 29 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | HOU at CLE | $4,200 | 7.2 | 1.72 |
| 30 | Adonai Mitchell | NYJ vs BUF | $4,900 | 7.2 | 1.47 |
| 31 | Jauan Jennings | MIN at GB | $3,300 | 7.1 | 2.16 |
| 32 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF at DAL | $5,500 | 7.1 | 1.30 |
| 33 | Cooper Kupp | SEA at LV | $3,600 | 7.1 | 1.96 |
| 34 | Tutu Atwell | LAR at ARI | $3,700 | 7.0 | 1.89 |
| 35 | Jonathan Mingo | DAL vs SF | $3,000 | 6.8 | 2.28 |
| 36 | Jalen Nailor | LV vs SEA | $3,100 | 6.8 | 2.20 |
| 37 | Chris Blair | ATL vs KC | $3,000 | 6.8 | 2.27 |
| 38 | Xavier Worthy | KC at ATL | $4,300 | 6.8 | 1.58 |
| 39 | Omar Cooper Jr. | NYJ vs BUF | $5,400 | 6.6 | 1.23 |
| 40 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX at TEN | $3,700 | 6.6 | 1.78 |
Week 10 tight end projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | ARI vs LAR | $7,100 | 10.4 | 1.47 |
| 2 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN at GB | $4,300 | 9.5 | 2.22 |
| 3 | George Kittle | SF at DAL | $6,500 | 9.0 | 1.39 |
| 4 | Colby Parkinson | LAR at ARI | $3,000 | 8.3 | 2.77 |
| 5 | Dalton Schultz | HOU at CLE | $3,400 | 7.8 | 2.29 |
| 6 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF at NYJ | $5,100 | 7.5 | 1.46 |
| 7 | Elijah Higgins | ARI vs LAR | $2,500 | 7.3 | 2.92 |
| 8 | Greg Dulcich | MIA at IND | $3,300 | 7.1 | 2.16 |
| 9 | Tommy Tremble | CAR at NO | $2,900 | 6.9 | 2.39 |
| 10 | Michael Mayer | LV vs SEA | $3,100 | 6.9 | 2.23 |
| 11 | Tyler Higbee | LAR at ARI | $4,200 | 6.8 | 1.62 |
| 12 | Brenton Strange | JAX at TEN | $4,100 | 6.8 | 1.66 |
| 13 | Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL vs KC | $3,800 | 6.7 | 1.75 |
| 14 | Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL vs SF | $3,200 | 6.2 | 1.94 |
| 15 | Darren Waller | CAR at NO | $3,600 | 6.0 | 1.67 |
| 16 | Juwan Johnson | NO vs CAR | $4,000 | 6.0 | 1.50 |
Week 10 defense projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rams | LAR at ARI | $3,800 | 8.5 | 2.23 |
| 2 | Jaguars | JAX at TEN | $4,000 | 7.5 | 1.88 |
| 3 | Texans | HOU at CLE | $3,400 | 7.5 | 2.21 |
| 4 | Packers | GB vs MIN | $2,900 | 6.7 | 2.31 |
| 5 | Seahawks | SEA at LV | $3,300 | 6.6 | 2.01 |
| 6 | Colts | IND vs MIA | $3,000 | 6.5 | 2.16 |
| 7 | Chiefs | KC at ATL | $3,200 | 6.3 | 1.98 |
| 8 | Bills | BUF at NYJ | $3,500 | 6.2 | 1.78 |
| 9 | Dolphins | MIA at IND | $2,600 | 6.0 | 2.32 |
| 10 | Saints | NO vs CAR | $2,700 | 5.7 | 2.11 |
| 11 | Browns | CLE vs HOU | $2,500 | 5.7 | 2.26 |
| 12 | Vikings | MIN at GB | $2,800 | 5.6 | 1.99 |
Floors, ceilings, simulated win rates, ownership and one-click DraftKings and FanDuel exports for every player are in the Splash Play NFL tool. Open the NFL DFS tool →
NFL DFS Week 10 projections FAQ
Who has the highest NFL DFS projection for Week 10?
Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB) has the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 10 DraftKings main slate at 28.8 points for $8,200, as of November 10, 10:42 AM ET.
Who is the top quarterback projection for Week 10 on DraftKings?
Brock Purdy leads the Week 10 quarterbacks at 21.5 projected DraftKings points for $7,000, at DAL.
What is the best NFL DFS stack for Week 10?
Build around Carson Beck with Trey McBride. Among quarterback stacks with at least 50 lineups in Chris Spags' simulated Week 10 pool, it had the strongest simulated return, weighted by how many lineups back it, cashing 19.9% of the time. The two players cost $11,300.
What is the best NFL DFS value play for Week 10?
Among players projected for at least 10 points, Carson Beck (QB, $4,200) returns the most projected points per $1,000 of salary at 3.97, projected for 16.7.
Which game has the highest total in NFL Week 10?
SF at DAL has the highest total on the Week 10 DraftKings main slate at 55.5 points, as of November 10, 10:42 AM ET. Lines move before lock.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
How are the SPAGS NFL DFS projections made?
SPAGS projections come from the Splash Play NFL model, built by Chris Spags from player workload, efficiency and game environment. The slate is then simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field to measure winning-lineup credit.
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