Steelers vs Bengals DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Steelers vs Bengals DraftKings Showdown?
Joe Burrow has the highest SPAGS projection in the Steelers at Bengals DraftKings Showdown: 20.7 points at $10,600 FLEX, 31.1 at captain for $15,900. Across 10,000 simulations Burrow holds 64% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Burrow is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 6.6 points at a $10,600 FLEX salary, in a game with a 49.5-point total.
Ja'Marr Chase has the largest captain share: 15.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Chase at captain. The model gives him 8.9 targets on 34.9 routes. Joe Burrow is the next captain in line, at 13.0%.
Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 26.5 for the Bengals and 23 for the Steelers.
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Behind Burrow and Chase, the next projections are Jaylen Warren (17.9, $9,600), Tee Higgins (16.8, $10,400) and Chase Brown (16.6, $8,400).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the November 14, 3:57 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Ja'Marr Chase, CIN WR ($11,000 FLEX / $16,500 CPT)
Ja'Marr Chase holds 15.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $16,500 and the 19.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 29.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 8.9 targets on 34.9 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Chase averaged 19.9 points with a simulated floor of 6.8 and a ceiling of 43.3. He holds 52% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 15.9% as the captain and 36.2% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Joe Burrow, CIN QB ($10,600 FLEX / $15,900 CPT)
Joe Burrow holds 13.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,900 and the 20.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 31.1 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. Across 10,000 simulations Burrow averaged 20.7 points with a simulated floor of 6.6 and a ceiling of 41.9. He holds 64% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 13.0% as the captain and 50.7% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Jaylen Warren, PIT RB ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Jaylen Warren holds 12.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,400 and the 17.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 26.8 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 12.5 carries and 4.2 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Warren averaged 17.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.0 and a ceiling of 35.5. He holds 53% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.9% as the captain and 40.4% in a FLEX spot.
Steelers vs Bengals DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,098 lineups in Chris Spags' SNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (13 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 142,687-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | $16,500 | 29.9 |
| FLEX | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | $10,600 | 20.7 |
| FLEX | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | $9,000 | 16.1 |
| FLEX | Rico Dowdle | PIT | RB | $5,600 | 10.7 |
| Core total | $41,700 | 77.5 |
That leaves $8,300 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Chase Brown at $12,600, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 12 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Entering more than one lineup tonight? This core is one of 5,098 lineups in Chris's Steelers-Bengals pool. All of them, with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex — $33.33/wk →
Top FLEX projections for Steelers vs Bengals
Tee Higgins, CIN WR ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Tee Higgins carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.8 DraftKings points for a $10,400 FLEX salary ($15,600 at captain). The model gives him 7.4 targets on 34.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Higgins averaged 16.7 points with a simulated floor of 4.0 and a ceiling of 42.1. He holds 40% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.8% as the captain and 28.2% in a FLEX spot.
Chase Brown, CIN RB ($8,400 FLEX / $12,600 CPT)
Chase Brown carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.6 DraftKings points for an $8,400 FLEX salary ($12,600 at captain). The model gives him 14.4 carries and 5.3 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Brown averaged 16.7 points with a simulated floor of 5.7 and a ceiling of 34.8. He holds 51% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.9% as the captain and 38.3% in a FLEX spot.
Aaron Rodgers, PIT QB ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Aaron Rodgers carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.1 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Rodgers averaged 16.1 points with a simulated floor of 5.4 and a ceiling of 32.5. He holds 49% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.7% as the captain and 42.2% in a FLEX spot.
DK Metcalf, PIT WR ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
DK Metcalf carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 13.1 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 8.2 targets on 35.4 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Metcalf averaged 13.0 points with a simulated floor of 2.6 and a ceiling of 33.4. He holds 37% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.5% as the captain and 28.0% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Darnell Washington, PIT TE ($3,600 FLEX / $5,400 CPT)
Darnell Washington projects for 8.5 DraftKings points at a $3,600 FLEX salary, 2.37 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 3.5 targets on 13.9 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Washington averaged 8.4 points with a simulated floor of 0.8 and a ceiling of 23.9. He holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.0% as the captain and 24.3% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Pat Freiermuth, PIT TE ($4,600 FLEX / $6,900 CPT)
Pat Freiermuth projects for 8.1 DraftKings points at a $4,600 FLEX salary, 1.76 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.6 targets on 24.4 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Freiermuth averaged 8.2 points with a simulated floor of 0.5 and a ceiling of 24.3. He holds 24% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.6% as the captain and 20.3% in a FLEX spot.
Steelers vs Bengals Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | $10,600 | $15,900 | 20.7 | 64% | 13.0% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | $11,000 | $16,500 | 19.9 | 52% | 15.9% |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 17.9 | 53% | 12.9% |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | $10,400 | $15,600 | 16.8 | 40% | 11.8% |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | $8,400 | $12,600 | 16.6 | 51% | 12.9% |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 16.1 | 49% | 6.7% |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | $7,400 | $11,100 | 13.1 | 37% | 8.5% |
| Germie Bernard | PIT | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 11.3 | 31% | 3.1% |
Steelers vs Bengals DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Steelers at Bengals DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | $10,600 | $15,900 | 20.7 | 31.1 | 1.95 |
| 2 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | $11,000 | $16,500 | 19.9 | 29.9 | 1.81 |
| 3 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 17.9 | 26.8 | 1.86 |
| 4 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | $10,400 | $15,600 | 16.8 | 25.2 | 1.62 |
| 5 | Chase Brown | CIN | RB | $8,400 | $12,600 | 16.6 | 25.0 | 1.98 |
| 6 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 16.1 | 24.2 | 1.79 |
| 7 | DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | $7,400 | $11,100 | 13.1 | 19.7 | 1.77 |
| 8 | Germie Bernard | PIT | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 11.3 | 17.0 | 1.62 |
| 9 | Rico Dowdle | PIT | RB | $5,600 | $8,400 | 10.7 | 16.1 | 1.92 |
| 10 | Evan McPherson | CIN | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 1.71 |
| 11 | Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | $3,600 | $5,400 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 2.37 |
| 12 | Chris Boswell | PIT | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 1.66 |
| 13 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | $4,600 | $6,900 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 1.76 |
| 14 | Mike Gesicki | CIN | TE | $4,800 | $7,200 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 1.56 |
| 15 | Samaje Perine | CIN | RB | $4,400 | $6,600 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 1.62 |
| 16 | Bengals | CIN | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 1.42 |
| 17 | Steelers | PIT | DST | $3,800 | $5,700 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 1.35 |
| 18 | Dohnte Meyers | CIN | WR | $3,000 | $4,500 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 1.07 |
| 19 | Drew Sample | CIN | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 1.49 |
| 20 | Brandon Smith | PIT | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.26 |
| 21 | Jack Endries | CIN | TE | $600 | $900 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.00 |
| 22 | Mitch Tinsley | CIN | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.77 |
| 23 | Ben Skowronek | PIT | WR | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.63 |
| 24 | Colbie Young | CIN | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.51 |
| 25 | Brandon Johnson | PIT | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.20 |
| 26 | Tahj Brooks | CIN | RB | $400 | $600 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.55 |
| 27 | Lew Nichols | PIT | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.41 |
| 28 | Cam Grandy | CIN | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.50 |
| 29 | Robert Tonyan | PIT | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 2.10 |
| 30 | Riley Nowakowski | PIT | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.85 |
Steelers vs Bengals DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Steelers vs Bengals DraftKings Showdown?
Ja'Marr Chase holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 15.9%, ahead of Joe Burrow (13.0%) and Jaylen Warren (12.9%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Steelers vs Bengals?
Build around Ja'Marr Chase at captain with Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers and Rico Dowdle at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (13 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $8,300 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Steelers vs Bengals DraftKings Showdown?
Joe Burrow leads the SPAGS model at 20.7 DraftKings points for $10,600 at FLEX, or 31.1 points at captain for $15,900.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Steelers vs Bengals Showdown?
Ja'Marr Chase is the most expensive player at $11,000 FLEX and $16,500 at captain. All 30 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Steelers vs Bengals DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Darnell Washington (8.5 points at $3,600), Pat Freiermuth (8.1 points at $4,600) and Chris Boswell (8.3 points at $5,000).
What is the Steelers vs Bengals spread and total?
The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 49.5, with implied team totals of 26.5 for the Bengals and 23 for the Steelers.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
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