Commanders vs Giants DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Commanders vs Giants DraftKings Showdown?
J.J. McCarthy has the highest SPAGS projection in the Commanders at Giants DraftKings Showdown: 18.0 points at $8,800 FLEX, 27.1 at captain for $13,200. In a game totaled at 41.5, the model's favorite play is the quarterback who also runs. It has him carrying 5.9 times, and across 10,000 simulations he holds 83% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against McCarthy is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 5.7 points at an $8,800 FLEX salary.
He also has the largest captain share: 18.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with McCarthy at captain. Jayden Daniels is the next captain in line, at 17.9%. The model has him running 4.9 times.
The Giants are a 2.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 22 for the Giants and 19.5 for the Commanders.
Behind McCarthy and Daniels, the next projections are Malik Nabers (14.7, $11,000), Cam Skattebo (12.3, $9,000) and Isaiah Likely (11.5, $8,200).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the November 10, 10:44 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: J.J. McCarthy, NYG QB ($8,800 FLEX / $13,200 CPT)
J.J. McCarthy holds 18.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $13,200 and the 18.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 27.1 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 5.9 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations McCarthy averaged 18.0 points with a simulated floor of 5.7 and a ceiling of 36.8. He holds 83% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 18.7% as the captain and 63.8% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Jayden Daniels, WAS QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Jayden Daniels holds 17.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,000 and the 17.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 26.6 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 4.9 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Daniels averaged 17.8 points with a simulated floor of 5.6 and a ceiling of 36.4. He holds 70% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 17.9% as the captain and 52.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Malik Nabers, NYG WR ($11,000 FLEX / $16,500 CPT)
Malik Nabers holds 12.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $16,500 and the 14.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 22.0 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 7.1 targets on 20.3 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Nabers averaged 14.7 points with a simulated floor of 2.4 and a ceiling of 39.2. He holds 55% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.4% as the captain and 42.8% in a FLEX spot.
Commanders vs Giants DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,099 lineups in Chris Spags' TNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (261 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 190,249-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE | $12,300 | 17.3 |
| FLEX | J.J. McCarthy | NYG | QB | $8,800 | 18.0 |
| FLEX | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $10,000 | 17.7 |
| FLEX | Rachaad White | WAS | RB | $7,600 | 10.9 |
| Core total | $38,700 | 63.9 |
That leaves $11,300 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Chig Okonkwo at $8,700, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 236 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Entering more than one lineup tonight? This core is one of 5,099 lineups in Chris's Commanders-Giants pool. All of them, with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex — $33.33/wk →
Top FLEX projections for Commanders vs Giants
Cam Skattebo, NYG RB ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Cam Skattebo carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.3 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model gives him 13.0 carries and 2.7 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Skattebo averaged 12.1 points with a simulated floor of 2.2 and a ceiling of 31.0. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.5% as the captain and 32.5% in a FLEX spot.
Isaiah Likely, NYG TE ($8,200 FLEX / $12,300 CPT)
Isaiah Likely carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.5 DraftKings points for an $8,200 FLEX salary ($12,300 at captain). The model gives him 4.5 targets on 13.1 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Likely averaged 11.6 points with a simulated floor of 1.9 and a ceiling of 30.5. He holds 22% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.7% as the captain and 16.4% in a FLEX spot.
Rachaad White, WAS RB ($7,600 FLEX / $11,400 CPT)
Rachaad White carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.9 DraftKings points for a $7,600 FLEX salary ($11,400 at captain). The model gives him 11.1 carries and 1.9 targets. Across 10,000 simulations White averaged 10.9 points with a simulated floor of 5.3 and a ceiling of 18.1. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 2.9% as the captain and 27.6% in a FLEX spot.
Stefon Diggs, WAS WR ($9,200 FLEX / $13,800 CPT)
Stefon Diggs carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.5 DraftKings points for a $9,200 FLEX salary ($13,800 at captain). The model gives him 4.6 targets on 16.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Diggs averaged 9.6 points with a simulated floor of 1.6 and a ceiling of 24.3. He holds 27% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.2% as the captain and 23.0% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Van Jefferson, WAS WR ($3,200 FLEX / $4,800 CPT)
Van Jefferson projects for 5.2 DraftKings points at a $3,200 FLEX salary, 1.63 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.2 targets on 16.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Jefferson averaged 5.2 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 14.2. He holds 14% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.8% as the captain and 13.0% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Austin Ekeler, WAS RB ($4,600 FLEX / $6,900 CPT)
Austin Ekeler projects for 6.8 DraftKings points at a $4,600 FLEX salary, 1.47 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 6.5 carries and 1.1 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Ekeler averaged 6.8 points with a simulated floor of 1.9 and a ceiling of 13.7. He holds 9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 2.1% as the captain and 6.6% in a FLEX spot.
Commanders vs Giants Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | NYG | QB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 18.0 | 83% | 18.7% |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 17.7 | 70% | 17.9% |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | $11,000 | $16,500 | 14.7 | 55% | 12.4% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 12.3 | 42% | 9.5% |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE | $8,200 | $12,300 | 11.5 | 22% | 5.7% |
| Rachaad White | WAS | RB | $7,600 | $11,400 | 10.9 | 30% | 2.9% |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS | WR | $9,200 | $13,800 | 9.5 | 27% | 4.2% |
| Antonio Williams | WAS | WR | $7,200 | $10,800 | 8.9 | 27% | 2.8% |
Commanders vs Giants DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Commanders at Giants DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J.J. McCarthy | NYG | QB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 18.0 | 27.1 | 2.05 |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 17.7 | 26.6 | 1.77 |
| 3 | Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | $11,000 | $16,500 | 14.7 | 22.0 | 1.34 |
| 4 | Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 12.3 | 18.5 | 1.37 |
| 5 | Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE | $8,200 | $12,300 | 11.5 | 17.3 | 1.41 |
| 6 | Rachaad White | WAS | RB | $7,600 | $11,400 | 10.9 | 16.3 | 1.43 |
| 7 | Stefon Diggs | WAS | WR | $9,200 | $13,800 | 9.5 | 14.3 | 1.04 |
| 8 | Antonio Williams | WAS | WR | $7,200 | $10,800 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 1.24 |
| 9 | Chig Okonkwo | WAS | TE | $5,800 | $8,700 | 8.4 | 12.6 | 1.45 |
| 10 | Dominic Zvada | NYG | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 1.50 |
| 11 | Drew Stevens | WAS | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 1.47 |
| 12 | Devin Singletary | NYG | RB | $8,000 | $12,000 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 0.93 |
| 13 | Malachi Fields | NYG | WR | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 1.42 |
| 14 | Austin Ekeler | WAS | RB | $4,600 | $6,900 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 1.47 |
| 15 | Giants | NYG | DST | $4,800 | $7,200 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 1.27 |
| 16 | Commanders | WAS | DST | $4,400 | $6,600 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 1.32 |
| 17 | Van Jefferson | WAS | WR | $3,200 | $4,800 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 1.63 |
| 18 | Treylon Burks | WAS | WR | $3,600 | $5,400 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 1.43 |
| 19 | Darnell Mooney | NYG | WR | $4,000 | $6,000 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 0.96 |
| 20 | Luke McCaffrey | WAS | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 1.56 |
| 21 | Theo Johnson | NYG | TE | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 1.10 |
| 22 | Colson Yankoff | WAS | TE | $200 | $300 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 13.05 |
| 23 | Jaden Bradley | WAS | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.52 |
| 24 | Charlie Jones | NYG | WR | $1,800 | $2,700 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.39 |
| 25 | Thomas Fidone II | NYG | TE | $200 | $300 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 12.55 |
| 26 | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 3.11 |
| 27 | Craig Reynolds | WAS | RB | $200 | $300 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 8.15 |
| 28 | Gregory Desrosiers | NYG | RB | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.49 |
| 29 | John Bates | WAS | TE | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.20 |
| 30 | Ben Sinnott | WAS | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.61 |
| 31 | Chris Manhertz | NYG | TE | $600 | $900 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.33 |
| 32 | Patrick Ricard | NYG | RB | $400 | $600 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.80 |
Commanders vs Giants DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Commanders vs Giants DraftKings Showdown?
J.J. McCarthy holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 18.7%, ahead of Jayden Daniels (17.9%) and Malik Nabers (12.4%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Commanders vs Giants?
Build around Isaiah Likely at captain with J.J. McCarthy, Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (261 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $11,300 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Commanders vs Giants DraftKings Showdown?
J.J. McCarthy leads the SPAGS model at 18.0 DraftKings points for $8,800 at FLEX, or 27.1 points at captain for $13,200.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Commanders vs Giants Showdown?
Malik Nabers is the most expensive player at $11,000 FLEX and $16,500 at captain. All 32 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Commanders vs Giants DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Van Jefferson (5.2 points at $3,200), Austin Ekeler (6.8 points at $4,600) and Treylon Burks (5.1 points at $3,600).
What is the Commanders vs Giants spread and total?
The Giants are a 2.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 41.5, with implied team totals of 22 for the Giants and 19.5 for the Commanders.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
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