Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
Davante Adams carries the highest SPAGS model projection in Sunday Night Football's Rams at Broncos DraftKings Showdown slate: 18.8 DraftKings points at a $10,200 FLEX salary, or 28.2 at captain for $15,300. Adams holds the largest share of simulated winning-lineup credit at 67% across 100,000 simulations, including the largest captain share at 19.6%.
Behind Adams, the next four projections are Bo Nix (17.0, $10,000), Matthew Stafford (16.8, $10,400), Kyren Williams (14.3, $8,600) and Jaylen Waddle (13.8, $9,600). The Rams are a 1.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 44.5, with implied team totals of 21.5 for the Broncos and 23 for the Rams.
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 27, 8:06 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 100,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Davante Adams, LAR WR ($10,200 FLEX / $15,300 CPT)
Davante Adams holds 19.6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $15,300 and the 18.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 28.2 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 10.5 targets on 26.2 routes. The current projection of 18.8 compares with a saved model baseline of 12.2. Across 100,000 simulations Adams averaged 18.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.7 and a ceiling of 38.3. He holds 67% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 19.6% as the captain and 47.6% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Bo Nix, DEN QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Bo Nix holds 11.8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,000 and the 17.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 25.4 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 3.9 rushing attempts. Across 100,000 simulations Nix averaged 17.0 points with a simulated floor of 6.7 and a ceiling of 31.2. He holds 66% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.8% as the captain and 54.6% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Kyren Williams, LAR RB ($8,600 FLEX / $12,900 CPT)
Kyren Williams holds 9.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $12,900 and the 14.3-point SPAGS model projection becomes 21.4 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 13.2 carries and 3.0 targets. The current projection of 14.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 15.5. Across 100,000 simulations Williams averaged 14.3 points with a simulated floor of 5.5 and a ceiling of 27.6. He holds 50% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.7% as the captain and 40.4% in a FLEX spot.
Top FLEX projections for Rams vs Broncos
Matthew Stafford, LAR QB ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Matthew Stafford carries the 3rd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.8 DraftKings points for a $10,400 FLEX salary ($15,600 at captain). Across 100,000 simulations Stafford averaged 16.8 points with a simulated floor of 7.0 and a ceiling of 31.2. He holds 63% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.0% as the captain and 53.6% in a FLEX spot.
Jaylen Waddle, DEN WR ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Jaylen Waddle carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 13.8 DraftKings points for a $9,600 FLEX salary ($14,400 at captain). The model gives him 8.2 targets on 27.3 routes. The current projection of 13.8 compares with a saved model baseline of 10.6. Across 100,000 simulations Waddle averaged 13.9 points with a simulated floor of 4.6 and a ceiling of 30.4. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.6% as the captain and 33.5% in a FLEX spot.
J.K. Dobbins, DEN RB ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
J.K. Dobbins carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.3 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 13.7 carries and 1.3 targets. The current projection of 11.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 9.2. Across 100,000 simulations Dobbins averaged 11.3 points with a simulated floor of 1.8 and a ceiling of 36.8. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.1% as the captain and 23.1% in a FLEX spot.
Terrance Ferguson, LAR TE ($3,800 FLEX / $5,700 CPT)
Terrance Ferguson carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.1 DraftKings points for a $3,800 FLEX salary ($5,700 at captain). The model gives him 6.7 targets on 19.0 routes. The current projection of 11.1 compares with a saved model baseline of 6.6. Across 100,000 simulations Ferguson averaged 11.1 points with a simulated floor of 3.0 and a ceiling of 26.0. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.3% as the captain and 35.3% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Evan Engram, DEN TE ($3,000 FLEX / $4,500 CPT)
Evan Engram projects for 6.2 DraftKings points at a $3,000 FLEX salary, 2.06 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 3.9 targets on 18.6 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Engram averaged 6.2 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 16.9. He holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.7% as the captain and 14.3% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Harrison Mevis, LAR K ($4,600 FLEX / $6,900 CPT)
Harrison Mevis projects for 8.6 DraftKings points at a $4,600 FLEX salary, 1.88 projected points per $1,000. Across 100,000 simulations Mevis averaged 8.6 points with a simulated floor of 3.0 and a ceiling of 17.0. He holds 23% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.1% as the captain and 22.4% in a FLEX spot.
Rams vs Broncos Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | LAR | WR | $10,200 | $15,300 | 18.8 | 67% | 19.6% |
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 17.0 | 66% | 11.8% |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 16.8 | 63% | 9.0% |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | $8,600 | $12,900 | 14.3 | 50% | 9.7% |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $9,600 | $14,400 | 13.8 | 42% | 8.6% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.3 | 30% | 7.1% |
| Terrance Ferguson | LAR | TE | $3,800 | $5,700 | 11.1 | 42% | 6.3% |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | $7,600 | $11,400 | 10.5 | 29% | 5.0% |
Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Rams at Broncos DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davante Adams | LAR | WR | $10,200 | $15,300 | 18.8 | 28.2 | 1.84 |
| 2 | Bo Nix | DEN | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 17.0 | 25.4 | 1.70 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 16.8 | 25.2 | 1.61 |
| 4 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | $8,600 | $12,900 | 14.3 | 21.4 | 1.66 |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $9,600 | $14,400 | 13.8 | 20.8 | 1.44 |
| 6 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.3 | 17.0 | 1.53 |
| 7 | Terrance Ferguson | LAR | TE | $3,800 | $5,700 | 11.1 | 16.7 | 2.93 |
| 8 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | $7,600 | $11,400 | 10.5 | 15.8 | 1.39 |
| 9 | Blake Corum | LAR | RB | $6,600 | $9,900 | 9.9 | 14.8 | 1.50 |
| 10 | RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | $7,000 | $10,500 | 9.7 | 14.6 | 1.39 |
| 11 | Harrison Mevis | LAR | K | $4,600 | $6,900 | 8.6 | 12.9 | 1.88 |
| 12 | Wil Lutz | DEN | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 1.74 |
| 13 | Pat Bryant | DEN | WR | $5,600 | $8,400 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 1.35 |
| 14 | Rams | LAR | DST | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 1.46 |
| 15 | Broncos | DEN | DST | $3,400 | $5,100 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 1.84 |
| 16 | Evan Engram | DEN | TE | $3,000 | $4,500 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 2.06 |
| 17 | Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | $4,200 | $6,300 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 1.14 |
| 18 | Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | $2,400 | $3,600 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 1.75 |
| 19 | Xavier Smith | LAR | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 3.21 |
| 20 | Konata Mumpfield | LAR | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 1.73 |
| 21 | Tyler Badie | DEN | RB | $5,400 | $8,100 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 0.53 |
| 22 | Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 0.87 |
| 23 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.70 |
| 24 | Davis Allen | LAR | TE | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 0.98 |
| 25 | Nate Adkins | DEN | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.84 |
| 26 | Adam Prentice | DEN | RB | $400 | $600 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.05 |
| 27 | Dean Connors | LAR | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.00 |
Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
Davante Adams holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 19.6%, ahead of Bo Nix (11.8%) and Kyren Williams (9.7%), across 100,000 simulations.
Who has the highest projection in Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
Davante Adams leads the SPAGS model at 18.8 DraftKings points for $10,200 at FLEX, or 28.2 points at captain for $15,300.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Rams vs Broncos Showdown?
Matthew Stafford is the most expensive player at $10,400 FLEX and $15,600 at captain. All 27 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Terrance Ferguson (11.1 points at $3,800), Evan Engram (6.2 points at $3,000) and Harrison Mevis (8.6 points at $4,600).
What is the Rams vs Broncos spread and total?
The Rams are a 1.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 44.5, with implied team totals of 23 for the Rams and 21.5 for the Broncos.
More NFL DFS: Week 3 DraftKings main slate picks and projections.
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