Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Matthew Stafford carries the highest SPAGS model projection in Sunday Night Football's Rams at Broncos DraftKings Showdown slate: 16.9 DraftKings points at a $10,400 FLEX salary, or 25.3 at captain for $15,600. Stafford holds the largest share of simulated winning-lineup credit at 76% across 10,000 simulations, and Kyren Williams holds the largest captain share at 20.6%.
Behind Stafford, the next four projections are Bo Nix (16.7, $10,000), Kyren Williams (16.1, $8,600), Davante Adams (12.0, $10,200) and Jaylen Waddle (10.7, $9,600). The Rams are a 2.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 44.5, with implied team totals of 21 for the Broncos and 23.5 for the Rams.
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 25, 4:23 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Kyren Williams, LAR RB ($8,600 FLEX / $12,900 CPT)
Kyren Williams holds 20.6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $12,900 and the 16.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 24.2 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 14.4 carries and 3.6 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 16.2 points with a simulated floor of 6.3 and a ceiling of 31.3. He holds 68% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 20.6% as the captain and 47.6% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Matthew Stafford, LAR QB ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Matthew Stafford holds 17.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,600 and the 16.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 25.3 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. Across 10,000 simulations Stafford averaged 17.0 points with a simulated floor of 6.2 and a ceiling of 31.6. He holds 76% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 17.7% as the captain and 58.2% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Bo Nix, DEN QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Bo Nix holds 16.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,000 and the 16.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 25.0 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 3.9 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Nix averaged 16.6 points with a simulated floor of 6.1 and a ceiling of 30.2. He holds 75% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 16.9% as the captain and 58.1% in a FLEX spot.
Top FLEX projections for Rams vs Broncos
Davante Adams, LAR WR ($10,200 FLEX / $15,300 CPT)
Davante Adams carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.0 DraftKings points for a $10,200 FLEX salary ($15,300 at captain). The model gives him 7.0 targets on 22.5 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Adams averaged 12.1 points with a simulated floor of 4.0 and a ceiling of 24.9. He holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.1% as the captain and 37.5% in a FLEX spot.
Jaylen Waddle, DEN WR ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Jaylen Waddle carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.7 DraftKings points for a $9,600 FLEX salary ($14,400 at captain). The model gives him 6.4 targets on 26.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Waddle averaged 10.7 points with a simulated floor of 1.8 and a ceiling of 26.9. He holds 34% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.9% as the captain and 27.0% in a FLEX spot.
Blake Corum, LAR RB ($6,600 FLEX / $9,900 CPT)
Blake Corum carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.8 DraftKings points for a $6,600 FLEX salary ($9,900 at captain). The model gives him 12.4 carries and 1.1 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Corum averaged 9.8 points with a simulated floor of 1.5 and a ceiling of 22.9. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.6% as the captain and 23.3% in a FLEX spot.
J.K. Dobbins, DEN RB ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
J.K. Dobbins carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.0 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 11.3 carries and 1.2 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Dobbins averaged 9.1 points with a simulated floor of 1.4 and a ceiling of 21.4. He holds 25% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.0% as the captain and 20.0% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Evan Engram, DEN TE ($3,000 FLEX / $4,500 CPT)
Evan Engram projects for 6.3 DraftKings points at a $3,000 FLEX salary, 2.08 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.0 targets on 20.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Engram averaged 6.2 points with a simulated floor of 1.6 and a ceiling of 14.2. He holds 16% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.4% as the captain and 15.2% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Harrison Mevis, LAR K ($4,600 FLEX / $6,900 CPT)
Harrison Mevis projects for 8.7 DraftKings points at a $4,600 FLEX salary, 1.90 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Mevis averaged 8.8 points with a simulated floor of 3.0 and a ceiling of 18.0. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.4% as the captain and 28.7% in a FLEX spot.
Rams vs Broncos Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 16.9 | 76% | 17.7% |
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 16.7 | 75% | 16.9% |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | $8,600 | $12,900 | 16.1 | 68% | 20.6% |
| Davante Adams | LAR | WR | $10,200 | $15,300 | 12.0 | 44% | 6.1% |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $9,600 | $14,400 | 10.7 | 34% | 6.9% |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | $6,600 | $9,900 | 9.8 | 30% | 6.6% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | $7,400 | $11,100 | 9.0 | 25% | 5.0% |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | $7,600 | $11,400 | 8.8 | 26% | 3.8% |
Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Rams at Broncos DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 16.9 | 25.3 | 1.62 |
| 2 | Bo Nix | DEN | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 16.7 | 25.0 | 1.67 |
| 3 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | $8,600 | $12,900 | 16.1 | 24.2 | 1.88 |
| 4 | Davante Adams | LAR | WR | $10,200 | $15,300 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 1.18 |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $9,600 | $14,400 | 10.7 | 16.0 | 1.11 |
| 6 | Blake Corum | LAR | RB | $6,600 | $9,900 | 9.8 | 14.7 | 1.48 |
| 7 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | $7,400 | $11,100 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 1.22 |
| 8 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | $7,600 | $11,400 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 1.16 |
| 9 | Harrison Mevis | LAR | K | $4,600 | $6,900 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 1.90 |
| 10 | Wil Lutz | DEN | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 1.72 |
| 11 | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | $11,600 | $17,400 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 0.67 |
| 12 | Rams | LAR | DST | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 1.50 |
| 13 | Pat Bryant | DEN | WR | $5,600 | $8,400 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 1.20 |
| 14 | Terrance Ferguson | LAR | TE | $3,800 | $5,700 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 1.73 |
| 15 | Evan Engram | DEN | TE | $3,000 | $4,500 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 2.08 |
| 16 | Broncos | DEN | DST | $3,400 | $5,100 | 6.1 | 9.2 | 1.80 |
| 17 | RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | $7,000 | $10,500 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 0.83 |
| 18 | Jonah Coleman | DEN | RB | $6,400 | $9,600 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 0.87 |
| 19 | Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | $4,200 | $6,300 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 1.29 |
| 20 | Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | $2,400 | $3,600 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 1.80 |
| 21 | Xavier Smith | LAR | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 3.16 |
| 22 | Konata Mumpfield | LAR | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.77 |
| 23 | Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | $600 | $900 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 4.63 |
| 24 | Tyler Badie | DEN | RB | $5,400 | $8,100 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 0.47 |
| 25 | Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 0.75 |
| 26 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 0.81 |
| 27 | Nate Adkins | DEN | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.31 |
| 28 | Davis Allen | LAR | TE | $1,800 | $2,700 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.14 |
| 29 | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | WR | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.63 |
| 30 | Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.49 |
| 31 | Adam Prentice | DEN | RB | $400 | $600 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.52 |
| 32 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | $200 | $300 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 3.00 |
| 33 | CJ Daniels | LAR | WR | $200 | $300 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.00 |
Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
Kyren Williams holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 20.6%, ahead of Matthew Stafford (17.7%) and Bo Nix (16.9%), across 10,000 simulations.
Who has the highest projection in Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
Matthew Stafford leads the SPAGS model at 16.9 DraftKings points for $10,400 at FLEX, or 25.3 points at captain for $15,600.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Rams vs Broncos Showdown?
Puka Nacua is the most expensive player at $11,600 FLEX and $17,400 at captain. All 33 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Rams vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Evan Engram (6.3 points at $3,000), Harrison Mevis (8.7 points at $4,600) and Troy Franklin (4.3 points at $2,400).
What is the Rams vs Broncos spread and total?
The Rams are a 2.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 44.5, with implied team totals of 23.5 for the Rams and 21 for the Broncos.
More NFL DFS: Week 3 DraftKings main slate picks and projections.
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