Falcons vs Packers DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Falcons vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
Bijan Robinson carries the highest SPAGS model projection in Thursday Night Football's Falcons at Packers DraftKings Showdown slate: 21.4 DraftKings points at an $11,800 FLEX salary, or 32.2 at captain for $17,700. Robinson holds the largest share of simulated winning-lineup credit at 70% across 100,000 simulations, including the largest captain share at 26.3%.
Behind Robinson, the next four projections are Jordan Love (16.5, $10,000), Christian Watson (16.0, $9,800), Michael Penix Jr. (15.7, $9,000) and Matthew Golden (12.8, $7,800). Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 43.5, with implied team totals of 24 for the Packers and 19.5 for the Falcons.
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 24, 7:58 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 100,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Bijan Robinson, ATL RB ($11,800 FLEX / $17,700 CPT)
Bijan Robinson holds 26.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $17,700 and the 21.4-point SPAGS model projection becomes 32.2 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 14.6 carries and 6.3 targets. Across 100,000 simulations Robinson averaged 21.5 points with a simulated floor of 8.3 and a ceiling of 41.1. He holds 70% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 26.3% as the captain and 44.0% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Christian Watson, GB WR ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Christian Watson holds 13.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,700 and the 16.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 24.0 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 8.7 targets on 28.4 routes. The current projection of 16.0 compares with a saved model baseline of 14.1. Across 100,000 simulations Watson averaged 16.0 points with a simulated floor of 5.5 and a ceiling of 33.2. He holds 52% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 13.4% as the captain and 38.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Michael Penix Jr., ATL QB ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Michael Penix Jr. holds 9.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $13,500 and the 15.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 23.6 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 4.1 rushing attempts. The current projection of 15.7 compares with a saved model baseline of 0.0. Across 100,000 simulations Penix averaged 15.7 points with a simulated floor of 6.3 and a ceiling of 28.7. He holds 59% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.4% as the captain and 49.7% in a FLEX spot.
Top FLEX projections for Falcons vs Packers
Jordan Love, GB QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Jordan Love carries the 2nd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.5 DraftKings points for a $10,000 FLEX salary ($15,000 at captain). Across 100,000 simulations Love averaged 16.5 points with a simulated floor of 6.4 and a ceiling of 29.8. He holds 60% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.7% as the captain and 51.8% in a FLEX spot.
Matthew Golden, GB WR ($7,800 FLEX / $11,700 CPT)
Matthew Golden carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.8 DraftKings points for a $7,800 FLEX salary ($11,700 at captain). The model gives him 7.1 targets on 28.4 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Golden averaged 12.7 points with a simulated floor of 4.3 and a ceiling of 26.8. He holds 43% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.3% as the captain and 35.5% in a FLEX spot.
Drake London, ATL WR ($8,800 FLEX / $13,200 CPT)
Drake London carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.5 DraftKings points for an $8,800 FLEX salary ($13,200 at captain). The model gives him 7.0 targets on 23.5 routes. The current projection of 12.5 compares with a saved model baseline of 10.0. Across 100,000 simulations London averaged 12.5 points with a simulated floor of 4.4 and a ceiling of 26.3. He holds 39% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.3% as the captain and 32.3% in a FLEX spot.
MarShawn Lloyd, GB RB ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
MarShawn Lloyd carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.6 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 11.4 carries and 1.3 targets. The current projection of 10.6 compares with a saved model baseline of 11.8. Across 100,000 simulations Lloyd averaged 10.6 points with a simulated floor of 1.6 and a ceiling of 25.2. He holds 27% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.1% as the captain and 21.4% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL WR ($2,000 FLEX / $3,000 CPT)
Olamide Zaccheaus projects for 4.1 DraftKings points at a $2,000 FLEX salary, 2.05 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 2.5 targets on 14.3 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Zaccheaus averaged 4.1 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 13.7. He holds 13% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.7% as the captain and 12.1% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Jahan Dotson, ATL WR ($3,000 FLEX / $4,500 CPT)
Jahan Dotson projects for 5.7 DraftKings points at a $3,000 FLEX salary, 1.90 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 3.8 targets on 22.2 routes. The current projection of 5.7 compares with a saved model baseline of 6.3. Across 100,000 simulations Dotson averaged 5.8 points with a simulated floor of 0.5 and a ceiling of 16.0. He holds 18% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.1% as the captain and 16.4% in a FLEX spot.
Falcons vs Packers Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $11,800 | $17,700 | 21.4 | 70% | 26.3% |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 16.5 | 60% | 8.7% |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | $9,800 | $14,700 | 16.0 | 52% | 13.4% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 15.7 | 59% | 9.4% |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | $7,800 | $11,700 | 12.8 | 43% | 7.3% |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | $8,800 | $13,200 | 12.5 | 39% | 6.3% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB | $7,400 | $11,100 | 10.6 | 27% | 6.1% |
| Trey Smack | GB | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 9.4 | 33% | 2.3% |
Falcons vs Packers DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Falcons vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
Bijan Robinson holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 26.3%, ahead of Christian Watson (13.4%) and Michael Penix Jr. (9.4%), across 100,000 simulations.
Who has the highest projection in Falcons vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
Bijan Robinson leads the SPAGS model at 21.4 DraftKings points for $11,800 at FLEX, or 32.2 points at captain for $17,700.
What are the best value plays in Falcons vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Olamide Zaccheaus (4.1 points at $2,000), Jahan Dotson (5.7 points at $3,000) and Falcons (6.0 points at $3,400).
What is the Falcons vs Packers spread and total?
The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 43.5, with implied team totals of 24 for the Packers and 19.5 for the Falcons.
More NFL DFS: Week 3 DraftKings main slate picks and projections.
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