Falcons vs Packers DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football Captains, Projections and Sim Plays

DraftKings Showdown · Thursday Night Football, September 24 · NFL Week 3 · By Chris Spags · Published September 23, 2026 · Numbers as of September 23, 2:47 PM ET

Bijan Robinson carries the highest SPAGS model projection in Thursday Night Football's Falcons at Packers DraftKings Showdown slate: 19.3 DraftKings points at an $11,800 FLEX salary, or 28.9 at captain for $17,700. Bijan Robinson holds the largest share of simulated winning-lineup credit at 67% across 50,000 simulations, and Bijan Robinson holds the largest captain share at 23.1%.

Behind Robinson, the next four projections are Jordan Love (16.9, $10,000), Michael Penix Jr. (15.8, $9,000), Drake London (13.9, $8,800) and Christian Watson (12.6, $9,800). Green Bay is a 6.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 44.5, with implied team totals of 25.5 for the Packers and 19 for the Falcons.

Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 23, 2:47 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 50,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.

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TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with

Captain: Bijan Robinson, ATL RB ($11,800 FLEX / $17,700 CPT)

Bijan Robinson holds 23.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $17,700 and the 19.3-point SPAGS model projection becomes 28.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 13.7 carries and 5.6 targets. The current projection of 19.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 20.7. Across 50,000 simulations Robinson averaged 19.3 points with a simulated floor of 7.5 and a ceiling of 38.5. He holds 67% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 23.1% as the captain and 43.6% in a FLEX spot.

Captain: Jordan Love, GB QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)

Jordan Love holds 14.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,000 and the 16.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 25.3 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. Across 50,000 simulations Love averaged 16.9 points with a simulated floor of 6.8 and a ceiling of 30.6. He holds 66% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 14.3% as the captain and 52.2% in a FLEX spot.

Captain: Drake London, ATL WR ($8,800 FLEX / $13,200 CPT)

Drake London holds 12.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $13,200 and the 13.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 20.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 8.2 targets on 26.3 routes. The current projection of 13.9 compares with a saved model baseline of 13.4. Across 50,000 simulations London averaged 14.0 points with a simulated floor of 4.6 and a ceiling of 28.9. He holds 47% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.9% as the captain and 33.6% in a FLEX spot.

Top FLEX projections for Falcons vs Packers

Michael Penix Jr., ATL QB ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)

Michael Penix Jr. carries the 3rd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.8 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model includes 4.2 rushing attempts. The current projection of 15.8 compares with a saved model baseline of 0.0. Across 50,000 simulations Penix averaged 15.8 points with a simulated floor of 5.7 and a ceiling of 28.8. He holds 61% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.8% as the captain and 52.3% in a FLEX spot.

Christian Watson, GB WR ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)

Christian Watson carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.6 DraftKings points for a $9,800 FLEX salary ($14,700 at captain). The model gives him 6.7 targets on 26.3 routes. Across 50,000 simulations Watson averaged 12.6 points with a simulated floor of 4.4 and a ceiling of 26.1. He holds 37% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.3% as the captain and 30.9% in a FLEX spot.

MarShawn Lloyd, GB RB ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)

MarShawn Lloyd carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.6 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 12.7 carries and 1.7 targets. Across 50,000 simulations Lloyd averaged 12.5 points with a simulated floor of 4.6 and a ceiling of 24.3. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.5% as the captain and 37.1% in a FLEX spot.

Trey Smack, GB K ($5,200 FLEX / $7,800 CPT)

Trey Smack carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.9 DraftKings points for a $5,200 FLEX salary ($7,800 at captain). Across 50,000 simulations Smack averaged 10.0 points with a simulated floor of 3.4 and a ceiling of 19.4. He holds 39% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.9% as the captain and 35.3% in a FLEX spot.

Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under

Value: Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL WR ($2,000 FLEX / $3,000 CPT)

Olamide Zaccheaus projects for 4.6 DraftKings points at a $2,000 FLEX salary, 2.29 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 2.9 targets on 13.6 routes. Across 50,000 simulations Zaccheaus averaged 4.6 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 15.0. He holds 14% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.8% as the captain and 13.5% in a FLEX spot.

Value: Nick Folk, ATL K ($4,800 FLEX / $7,200 CPT)

Nick Folk projects for 7.9 DraftKings points at a $4,800 FLEX salary, 1.65 projected points per $1,000. Across 50,000 simulations Folk averaged 7.9 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 16.0. He holds 25% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.2% as the captain and 24.1% in a FLEX spot.

Falcons vs Packers Showdown projections and sim results

The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.