Falcons vs Saints DraftKings Showdown Picks: Monday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Bijan Robinson has the highest SPAGS projection in the Falcons at Saints DraftKings Showdown: 22.6 points at $11,800 FLEX, 33.9 at captain for $17,700. Across 10,000 simulations Robinson holds 69% of the winning-lineup credit. Tyler Shough holds the most, at 69%. The case against Robinson is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 11.1 points at an $11,800 FLEX salary, in a game with a 47.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 22.6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Robinson at captain. Tyler Shough is the next captain in line, at 17.1%. The model has him running 3.9 times.
New Orleans is a 2.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 25 for the Saints and 22.5 for the Falcons.
Behind Robinson and Shough, the next projections are Chris Olave (19.2, $10,800), Drake London (16.6, $10,000) and Michael Penix Jr. (16.0, $9,000).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 2, 11:49 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
MNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Bijan Robinson, ATL RB ($11,800 FLEX / $17,700 CPT)
Bijan Robinson holds 22.6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $17,700 and the 22.6-point SPAGS model projection becomes 33.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 17.9 carries and 5.0 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Robinson averaged 22.4 points with a simulated floor of 11.1 and a ceiling of 39.6. He holds 69% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 22.6% as the captain and 46.7% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Tyler Shough, NO QB ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Tyler Shough holds 17.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,400 and the 19.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 29.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 3.9 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Shough averaged 20.0 points with a simulated floor of 8.1 and a ceiling of 36.3. He holds 69% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 17.1% as the captain and 52.3% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Chris Olave, NO WR ($10,800 FLEX / $16,200 CPT)
Chris Olave holds 15.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $16,200 and the 19.2-point SPAGS model projection becomes 28.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 9.9 targets on 34.9 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Olave averaged 19.4 points with a simulated floor of 7.6 and a ceiling of 38.8. He holds 54% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 15.3% as the captain and 39.1% in a FLEX spot.
Falcons vs Saints DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,077 lineups in Chris Spags' MNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (19 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Noah Fant | NO | TE | $6,600 | 10.6 |
| FLEX | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $11,800 | 22.6 |
| FLEX | Tyler Shough | NO | QB | $9,600 | 19.8 |
| FLEX | Chris Olave | NO | WR | $10,800 | 19.2 |
| Core total | $38,800 | 72.2 |
That leaves $11,200 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Drake London at $15,000, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 13 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 5,077 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Falcons vs Saints
Drake London, ATL WR ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Drake London carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.6 DraftKings points for a $10,000 FLEX salary ($15,000 at captain). The model gives him 7.3 targets on 22.3 routes. Across 10,000 simulations London averaged 16.6 points with a simulated floor of 5.4 and a ceiling of 36.0. He holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.3% as the captain and 31.5% in a FLEX spot.
Michael Penix Jr., ATL QB ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Michael Penix Jr. carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.0 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Penix averaged 16.0 points with a simulated floor of 6.0 and a ceiling of 29.0. He holds 53% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.4% as the captain and 46.1% in a FLEX spot.
Alvin Kamara, NO RB ($7,000 FLEX / $10,500 CPT)
Alvin Kamara carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.1 DraftKings points for a $7,000 FLEX salary ($10,500 at captain). The model gives him 12.3 carries and 2.5 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Kamara averaged 11.1 points with a simulated floor of 5.7 and a ceiling of 18.3. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.6% as the captain and 28.3% in a FLEX spot.
Juwan Johnson, NO TE ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
Juwan Johnson carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.0 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 4.9 targets on 27.5 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Johnson averaged 11.1 points with a simulated floor of 2.7 and a ceiling of 26.2. He holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.0% as the captain and 23.1% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Daniel Carlson, NO K ($4,800 FLEX / $7,200 CPT)
Daniel Carlson projects for 9.4 DraftKings points at a $4,800 FLEX salary, 1.97 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Carlson averaged 9.5 points with a simulated floor of 4.2 and a ceiling of 16.9. He holds 31% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.6% as the captain and 29.6% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Jahan Dotson, ATL WR ($3,000 FLEX / $4,500 CPT)
Jahan Dotson projects for 5.5 DraftKings points at a $3,000 FLEX salary, 1.84 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.1 targets on 19.2 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Dotson averaged 5.6 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 15.0. He holds 18% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.8% as the captain and 16.7% in a FLEX spot.
Falcons vs Saints Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $11,800 | $17,700 | 22.6 | 69% | 22.6% |
| Tyler Shough | NO | QB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 19.8 | 69% | 17.1% |
| Chris Olave | NO | WR | $10,800 | $16,200 | 19.2 | 54% | 15.3% |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | $10,000 | $15,000 | 16.6 | 44% | 12.3% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 16.0 | 53% | 6.4% |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | $7,000 | $10,500 | 11.1 | 30% | 1.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.0 | 28% | 5.0% |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | WR | $7,800 | $11,700 | 11.0 | 25% | 2.4% |
Falcons vs Saints DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Falcons at Saints DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $11,800 | $17,700 | 22.6 | 33.9 | 1.91 |
| 2 | Tyler Shough | NO | QB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 19.8 | 29.7 | 2.06 |
| 3 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | $10,800 | $16,200 | 19.2 | 28.9 | 1.78 |
| 4 | Drake London | ATL | WR | $10,000 | $15,000 | 16.6 | 24.9 | 1.66 |
| 5 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 16.0 | 24.0 | 1.77 |
| 6 | Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | $7,000 | $10,500 | 11.1 | 16.7 | 1.59 |
| 7 | Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.0 | 16.5 | 1.49 |
| 8 | Devaughn Vele | NO | WR | $7,800 | $11,700 | 11.0 | 16.5 | 1.41 |
| 9 | Daniel Carlson | NO | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 9.4 | 14.2 | 1.97 |
| 10 | Nick Folk | ATL | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 1.58 |
| 11 | Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | TE | $5,800 | $8,700 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 1.38 |
| 12 | Noah Fant | NO | TE | $4,400 | $6,600 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 1.61 |
| 13 | Falcons | ATL | DST | $3,600 | $5,400 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 1.67 |
| 14 | Saints | NO | DST | $4,200 | $6,300 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 1.35 |
| 15 | Jahan Dotson | ATL | WR | $3,000 | $4,500 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 1.84 |
| 16 | Austin Hooper | ATL | TE | $2,800 | $4,200 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 1.80 |
| 17 | Kendre Miller | NO | RB | $5,000 | $7,500 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 0.98 |
| 18 | Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL | RB | $3,800 | $5,700 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 1.13 |
| 19 | Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.92 |
| 20 | CJ Donaldson | NO | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 1.72 |
| 21 | Bryce Lance | NO | WR | $1,800 | $2,700 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 1.33 |
| 22 | Zachariah Branch | ATL | WR | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.58 |
| 23 | Charlie Woerner | ATL | TE | $600 | $900 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.27 |
| 24 | Chris Blair | ATL | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.34 |
| 25 | Nick Muse | ATL | TE | $200 | $300 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5.10 |
| 26 | Oscar Delp | NO | TE | $400 | $600 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
| 27 | Kevin Austin Jr. | NO | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.96 |
| 28 | Treyton Welch | NO | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.75 |
| 29 | Jalen Moreno-Cropper | NO | WR | $200 | $300 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.65 |
Falcons vs Saints DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Falcons vs Saints DraftKings Showdown?
Bijan Robinson holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 22.6%, ahead of Tyler Shough (17.1%) and Chris Olave (15.3%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Falcons vs Saints?
Build around Noah Fant at captain with Bijan Robinson, Tyler Shough and Chris Olave at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (19 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $11,200 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Falcons vs Saints DraftKings Showdown?
Bijan Robinson leads the SPAGS model at 22.6 DraftKings points for $11,800 at FLEX, or 33.9 points at captain for $17,700.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Falcons vs Saints Showdown?
Bijan Robinson is the most expensive player at $11,800 FLEX and $17,700 at captain. All 29 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Falcons vs Saints DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Daniel Carlson (9.4 points at $4,800), Jahan Dotson (5.5 points at $3,000) and Austin Hooper (5.0 points at $2,800).
What is the Falcons vs Saints spread and total?
The Saints are a 2.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 47.5, with implied team totals of 25 for the Saints and 22.5 for the Falcons.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
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