Lions vs Panthers DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs has the highest SPAGS projection in the Lions at Panthers DraftKings Showdown: 26.1 points at $12,000 FLEX, 39.2 at captain for $18,000. Across 10,000 simulations Gibbs holds 74% of the winning-lineup credit.
He also has the largest captain share: 27.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Gibbs at captain. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the next captain in line, at 10.1%. The model gives him 10.5 targets on 31.8 routes.
Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 27 for the Lions and 23.5 for the Panthers.
Behind Gibbs and Brown, the next projections are Jared Goff (18.4, $10,000), Bryce Young (17.8, $9,800) and Chuba Hubbard (15.9, $9,400).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 2, 11:48 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Jahmyr Gibbs, DET RB ($12,000 FLEX / $18,000 CPT)
Jahmyr Gibbs holds 27.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $18,000 and the 26.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 39.2 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 22.9 carries and 5.7 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Gibbs averaged 26.2 points with a simulated floor of 14.0 and a ceiling of 42.3. He holds 74% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 27.4% as the captain and 46.4% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET WR ($11,000 FLEX / $16,500 CPT)
Amon-Ra St. Brown holds 10.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $16,500 and the 18.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 28.4 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 10.5 targets on 31.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Brown averaged 18.8 points with a simulated floor of 7.2 and a ceiling of 37.9. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.1% as the captain and 31.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Jalen Coker, CAR WR ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
Jalen Coker holds 9.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $11,100 and the 12.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 19.1 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 7.7 targets on 31.2 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Coker averaged 12.8 points with a simulated floor of 2.3 and a ceiling of 32.2. He holds 34% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.1% as the captain and 24.5% in a FLEX spot.
Lions vs Panthers DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,002 lineups in Chris Spags' SNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (17 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 118,906-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $18,000 | 39.2 |
| FLEX | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | $9,400 | 15.9 |
| FLEX | Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | $6,600 | 12.6 |
| FLEX | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | $7,000 | 11.4 |
| Core total | $41,000 | 79.1 |
That leaves $9,000 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Sam LaPorta at $9,900, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 14 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 5,002 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Lions vs Panthers
Jared Goff, DET QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Jared Goff carries the 3rd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 18.4 DraftKings points for a $10,000 FLEX salary ($15,000 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Goff averaged 18.5 points with a simulated floor of 7.4 and a ceiling of 34.3. He holds 51% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.4% as the captain and 43.4% in a FLEX spot.
Bryce Young, CAR QB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Bryce Young carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 17.8 DraftKings points for a $9,800 FLEX salary ($14,700 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Young averaged 17.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.3 and a ceiling of 32.9. He holds 49% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.3% as the captain and 42.8% in a FLEX spot.
Chuba Hubbard, CAR RB ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Chuba Hubbard carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.9 DraftKings points for a $9,400 FLEX salary ($14,100 at captain). The model gives him 17.7 carries and 3.4 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Hubbard averaged 15.9 points with a simulated floor of 6.3 and a ceiling of 30.2. He holds 41% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.0% as the captain and 33.5% in a FLEX spot.
Tetairoa McMillan, CAR WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Tetairoa McMillan carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 14.2 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model gives him 6.2 targets on 35.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations McMillan averaged 14.0 points with a simulated floor of 3.4 and a ceiling of 35.0. He holds 31% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.1% as the captain and 22.9% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Tommy Tremble, CAR TE ($2,400 FLEX / $3,600 CPT)
Tommy Tremble projects for 5.7 DraftKings points at a $2,400 FLEX salary, 2.39 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 2.9 targets on 16.4 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Tremble averaged 5.7 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 15.5. He holds 24% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.4% as the captain and 22.4% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Darren Waller, CAR TE ($4,400 FLEX / $6,600 CPT)
Darren Waller projects for 8.7 DraftKings points at a $4,400 FLEX salary, 1.98 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.3 targets on 20.7 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Waller averaged 8.6 points with a simulated floor of 0.9 and a ceiling of 23.2. He holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.0% as the captain and 23.3% in a FLEX spot.
Lions vs Panthers Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $12,000 | $18,000 | 26.1 | 74% | 27.4% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | $11,000 | $16,500 | 18.9 | 42% | 10.1% |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 18.4 | 51% | 7.4% |
| Bryce Young | CAR | QB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 17.8 | 49% | 6.3% |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.9 | 41% | 7.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 14.2 | 31% | 8.1% |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | WR | $7,400 | $11,100 | 12.7 | 34% | 9.1% |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | $6,600 | $9,900 | 12.6 | 37% | 7.1% |
Lions vs Panthers DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Lions at Panthers DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $12,000 | $18,000 | 26.1 | 39.2 | 2.18 |
| 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | $11,000 | $16,500 | 18.9 | 28.4 | 1.72 |
| 3 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 18.4 | 27.6 | 1.84 |
| 4 | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 17.8 | 26.7 | 1.82 |
| 5 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.9 | 23.9 | 1.69 |
| 6 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 14.2 | 21.2 | 1.57 |
| 7 | Jalen Coker | CAR | WR | $7,400 | $11,100 | 12.7 | 19.1 | 1.72 |
| 8 | Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | $6,600 | $9,900 | 12.6 | 18.9 | 1.91 |
| 9 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 11.4 | 17.1 | 1.63 |
| 10 | Jake Bates | DET | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 9.3 | 14.0 | 1.87 |
| 11 | Ryan Fitzgerald | CAR | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 1.82 |
| 12 | Darren Waller | CAR | TE | $4,400 | $6,600 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 1.98 |
| 13 | Lions | DET | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 1.49 |
| 14 | Tommy Tremble | CAR | TE | $2,400 | $3,600 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 2.39 |
| 15 | Isaac TeSlaa | DET | WR | $4,200 | $6,300 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 1.30 |
| 16 | Panthers | CAR | DST | $3,600 | $5,400 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 1.46 |
| 17 | John Metchie III | CAR | WR | $3,200 | $4,800 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 1.17 |
| 18 | AJ Dillon | CAR | RB | $3,400 | $5,100 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 0.90 |
| 19 | Brycen Tremayne | CAR | WR | $2,600 | $3,900 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.16 |
| 20 | Mitchell Evans | CAR | TE | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.35 |
| 21 | Sione Vaki | DET | RB | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 0.80 |
| 22 | Brock Wright | DET | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.84 |
| 23 | Tay Martin | DET | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.64 |
| 24 | Feleipe Franks | CAR | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.40 |
| 25 | Jacob Saylors | DET | RB | $400 | $600 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.52 |
| 26 | Anthony Tyus III | CAR | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.90 |
| 27 | Tom Kennedy | DET | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.10 |
| 28 | Jackson Meeks | DET | TE | $600 | $900 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.08 |
Lions vs Panthers DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Lions vs Panthers DraftKings Showdown?
Jahmyr Gibbs holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 27.4%, ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown (10.1%) and Jalen Coker (9.1%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Lions vs Panthers?
Build around Jahmyr Gibbs at captain with Chuba Hubbard, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (17 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $9,000 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Lions vs Panthers DraftKings Showdown?
Jahmyr Gibbs leads the SPAGS model at 26.1 DraftKings points for $12,000 at FLEX, or 39.2 points at captain for $18,000.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Lions vs Panthers Showdown?
Jahmyr Gibbs is the most expensive player at $12,000 FLEX and $18,000 at captain. All 28 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Lions vs Panthers DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Tommy Tremble (5.7 points at $2,400), Darren Waller (8.7 points at $4,400) and Jake Bates (9.3 points at $5,000).
What is the Lions vs Panthers spread and total?
The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 50.5, with implied team totals of 27 for the Lions and 23.5 for the Panthers.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
More NFL DFS: Week 4 DraftKings main slate picks and projections.
Use READER for 25% off
Want the whole slate? VIP unlocks SPAGS projections and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building.
25% off your first payment. First-time customers only. Enter READER in Stripe checkout.
JOIN THE SQUAD →SEE HOW IT WORKS →