Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown?
Jaylen Warren has the highest SPAGS projection in the Steelers at Browns DraftKings Showdown: 19.1 points at $9,600 FLEX, 28.7 at captain for $14,400. Across 100,000 simulations Warren holds 81% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Warren is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 9.1 points at a $9,600 FLEX salary, in a game with a 38.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 32.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Warren at captain. Deshaun Watson is the next captain in line, at 16.2%. The model has him running 6.7 times.
Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 20.5 for the Steelers and 18 for the Browns. Neither number describes a shootout. Both describe a game where somebody has to carry the ball.
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Behind Warren and Watson, the next projections are Aaron Rodgers (14.7, $9,800), Quinshon Judkins (11.3, $8,800) and Harold Fannin Jr. (11.1, $7,400).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 1, 7:44 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 100,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Jaylen Warren, PIT RB ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Jaylen Warren holds 32.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $14,400 and the 19.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 28.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 18.4 carries and 5.1 targets. Across 100,000 simulations Warren averaged 19.1 points with a simulated floor of 9.1 and a ceiling of 33.0. He holds 81% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 32.7% as the captain and 48.3% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Deshaun Watson, CLE QB ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Deshaun Watson holds 16.2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,100 and the 16.6-point SPAGS model projection becomes 24.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 6.7 rushing attempts. Across 100,000 simulations Watson averaged 16.7 points with a simulated floor of 6.5 and a ceiling of 30.3. He holds 73% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 16.2% as the captain and 56.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Aaron Rodgers, PIT QB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Aaron Rodgers holds 8.5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,700 and the 14.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 22.0 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. Across 100,000 simulations Rodgers averaged 14.7 points with a simulated floor of 6.2 and a ceiling of 26.9. He holds 62% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.5% as the captain and 53.7% in a FLEX spot.
Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 4,301 lineups in Chris Spags' TNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (127 of 100,000 simulated contests against a modeled 190,249-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $14,400 | 28.7 |
| FLEX | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | $9,400 | 16.6 |
| FLEX | Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | $8,800 | 11.3 |
| FLEX | Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | TE | $7,400 | 11.1 |
| Core total | $40,000 | 67.7 |
That leaves $10,000 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Pat Freiermuth at $8,400, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 103 of 100,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 4,301 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Steelers vs Browns
Quinshon Judkins, CLE RB ($8,800 FLEX / $13,200 CPT)
Quinshon Judkins carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.3 DraftKings points for an $8,800 FLEX salary ($13,200 at captain). The model gives him 13.5 carries and 2.9 targets. Across 100,000 simulations Judkins averaged 11.3 points with a simulated floor of 5.8 and a ceiling of 18.8. He holds 40% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 2.8% as the captain and 36.9% in a FLEX spot.
Harold Fannin Jr., CLE TE ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
Harold Fannin Jr. carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.1 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 6.7 targets on 29.4 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Fannin averaged 11.1 points with a simulated floor of 2.8 and a ceiling of 26.0. He holds 38% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.1% as the captain and 29.5% in a FLEX spot.
DK Metcalf, PIT WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
DK Metcalf carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.6 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model gives him 6.5 targets on 31.6 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Metcalf averaged 10.6 points with a simulated floor of 3.8 and a ceiling of 22.5. He holds 31% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.2% as the captain and 27.0% in a FLEX spot.
KC Concepcion Jr., CLE WR ($6,400 FLEX / $9,600 CPT)
KC Concepcion Jr. carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.7 DraftKings points for a $6,400 FLEX salary ($9,600 at captain). The model gives him 7.2 targets on 30.1 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Concepcion averaged 9.7 points with a simulated floor of 2.7 and a ceiling of 21.1. He holds 32% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.4% as the captain and 27.8% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Andre Szmyt, CLE K ($4,600 FLEX / $6,900 CPT)
Andre Szmyt projects for 7.7 DraftKings points at a $4,600 FLEX salary, 1.68 projected points per $1,000. Across 100,000 simulations Szmyt averaged 7.7 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 15.0. He holds 22% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.8% as the captain and 21.4% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Darnell Washington, PIT TE ($3,600 FLEX / $5,400 CPT)
Darnell Washington projects for 5.9 DraftKings points at a $3,600 FLEX salary, 1.65 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 2.5 targets on 13.5 routes. Across 100,000 simulations Washington averaged 5.9 points with a simulated floor of 0.1 and a ceiling of 16.3. He holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.1% as the captain and 13.9% in a FLEX spot.
Steelers vs Browns Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 19.1 | 81% | 32.7% |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 16.6 | 73% | 16.2% |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 14.7 | 62% | 8.5% |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 11.3 | 40% | 2.8% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.1 | 38% | 8.1% |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 10.6 | 31% | 4.2% |
| KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE | WR | $6,400 | $9,600 | 9.7 | 32% | 4.4% |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 9.0 | 25% | 3.3% |
Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Steelers at Browns DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 19.1 | 28.7 | 1.99 |
| 2 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 16.6 | 24.9 | 1.77 |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 14.7 | 22.0 | 1.50 |
| 4 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 11.3 | 16.9 | 1.28 |
| 5 | Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.1 | 16.7 | 1.50 |
| 6 | DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 10.6 | 15.8 | 1.17 |
| 7 | KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE | WR | $6,400 | $9,600 | 9.7 | 14.5 | 1.52 |
| 8 | Denzel Boston | CLE | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 1.12 |
| 9 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | $5,600 | $8,400 | 8.4 | 12.7 | 1.51 |
| 10 | Chris Boswell | PIT | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 1.57 |
| 11 | Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 1.15 |
| 12 | Andre Szmyt | CLE | K | $4,600 | $6,900 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 1.68 |
| 13 | Steelers | PIT | DST | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 1.53 |
| 14 | Browns | CLE | DST | $4,800 | $7,200 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 1.35 |
| 15 | Roman Wilson | PIT | WR | $4,000 | $6,000 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 1.52 |
| 16 | Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | $3,600 | $5,400 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 1.65 |
| 17 | Raheim Sanders | CLE | RB | $4,400 | $6,600 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 1.22 |
| 18 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | $3,000 | $4,500 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 1.38 |
| 19 | Germie Bernard | PIT | WR | $3,200 | $4,800 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 1.16 |
| 20 | Blake Whiteheart | CLE | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.82 |
| 21 | Travis Homer | PIT | RB | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 0.92 |
| 22 | Lew Nichols | PIT | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.52 |
| 23 | Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE | RB | $400 | $600 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 4.67 |
| 24 | Isaiah Bond | CLE | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.81 |
| 25 | Malachi Corley | CLE | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.17 |
| 26 | Robert Tonyan | PIT | TE | $600 | $900 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.12 |
| 27 | Michael Burton | CLE | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2.80 |
| 28 | Ben Skowronek | PIT | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.43 |
| 29 | Riley Nowakowski | PIT | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.20 |
| 30 | Carsen Ryan | CLE | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.40 |
Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown?
Jaylen Warren holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 32.7%, ahead of Deshaun Watson (16.2%) and Aaron Rodgers (8.5%), across 100,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Steelers vs Browns?
Build around Jaylen Warren at captain with Deshaun Watson, Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (127 of 100,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $10,000 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown?
Jaylen Warren leads the SPAGS model at 19.1 DraftKings points for $9,600 at FLEX, or 28.7 points at captain for $14,400.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Steelers vs Browns Showdown?
Aaron Rodgers is the most expensive player at $9,800 FLEX and $14,700 at captain. All 30 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Andre Szmyt (7.7 points at $4,600), Darnell Washington (5.9 points at $3,600) and Steelers (7.6 points at $5,000).
What is the Steelers vs Browns spread and total?
The Steelers are a 2.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 38.5, with implied team totals of 20.5 for the Steelers and 18 for the Browns.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
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