Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Deshaun Watson carries the highest SPAGS model projection in Thursday Night Football's Steelers at Browns DraftKings Showdown slate: 18.0 DraftKings points at a $9,400 FLEX salary, or 26.9 at captain for $14,100. Watson holds the largest share of simulated winning-lineup credit at 79% across 10,000 simulations, including the largest captain share at 21.4%.
Behind Watson, the next four projections are Jaylen Warren (16.3, $9,600), Aaron Rodgers (14.9, $9,800), Quinshon Judkins (12.3, $8,800) and KC Concepcion Jr. (11.3, $6,400). Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 38.5, with implied team totals of 18 for the Browns and 20.5 for the Steelers.
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the September 29, 11:39 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Deshaun Watson, CLE QB ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Deshaun Watson holds 21.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $14,100 and the 18.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 26.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 6.9 rushing attempts. The current projection of 18.0 compares with a saved model baseline of 0.0. Across 10,000 simulations Watson averaged 18.0 points with a simulated floor of 6.8 and a ceiling of 32.8. He holds 79% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 21.4% as the captain and 58.1% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Jaylen Warren, PIT RB ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Jaylen Warren holds 17.6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,400 and the 16.3-point SPAGS model projection becomes 24.5 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 14.8 carries and 4.0 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Warren averaged 16.4 points with a simulated floor of 6.7 and a ceiling of 30.6. He holds 65% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 17.6% as the captain and 47.1% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Aaron Rodgers, PIT QB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Aaron Rodgers holds 8.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,700 and the 14.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 22.3 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. Across 10,000 simulations Rodgers averaged 14.9 points with a simulated floor of 5.9 and a ceiling of 27.3. He holds 62% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.4% as the captain and 53.5% in a FLEX spot.
Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 3,300 lineups in Chris Spags' TNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (38 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 190,249-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $14,400 | 24.5 |
| FLEX | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | $9,400 | 18.0 |
| FLEX | Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | $8,800 | 12.3 |
| FLEX | Denzel Boston | CLE | WR | $8,000 | 9.4 |
| Core total | $40,600 | 64.2 |
That leaves $9,400 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Quinshon Judkins at $13,200, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 25 of 10,000 simulated contests.
The complete lineups, all 3,300 of them with win rates and one-click DraftKings export, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for VIP members. See VIP plans →
Top FLEX projections for Steelers vs Browns
Quinshon Judkins, CLE RB ($8,800 FLEX / $13,200 CPT)
Quinshon Judkins carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.3 DraftKings points for an $8,800 FLEX salary ($13,200 at captain). The model gives him 13.9 carries and 2.9 targets. The current projection of 12.3 compares with a saved model baseline of 14.7. Across 10,000 simulations Judkins averaged 12.4 points with a simulated floor of 3.4 and a ceiling of 28.0. He holds 35% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.1% as the captain and 27.2% in a FLEX spot.
KC Concepcion Jr., CLE WR ($6,400 FLEX / $9,600 CPT)
KC Concepcion Jr. carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.3 DraftKings points for a $6,400 FLEX salary ($9,600 at captain). The model gives him 6.6 targets on 27.7 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Concepcion averaged 11.5 points with a simulated floor of 4.6 and a ceiling of 23.5. He holds 47% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.2% as the captain and 40.5% in a FLEX spot.
DK Metcalf, PIT WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
DK Metcalf carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.2 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model gives him 7.1 targets on 34.4 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Metcalf averaged 11.2 points with a simulated floor of 4.0 and a ceiling of 23.4. He holds 37% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.6% as the captain and 32.7% in a FLEX spot.
Harold Fannin Jr., CLE TE ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
Harold Fannin Jr. carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.1 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 6.6 targets on 29.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Fannin averaged 11.1 points with a simulated floor of 2.5 and a ceiling of 26.4. He holds 37% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.8% as the captain and 29.1% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Roman Wilson, PIT WR ($4,000 FLEX / $6,000 CPT)
Roman Wilson projects for 7.5 DraftKings points at a $4,000 FLEX salary, 1.88 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.9 targets on 22.7 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Wilson averaged 7.5 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 20.5. He holds 29% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.2% as the captain and 25.5% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Andre Szmyt, CLE K ($4,600 FLEX / $6,900 CPT)
Andre Szmyt projects for 7.7 DraftKings points at a $4,600 FLEX salary, 1.68 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Szmyt averaged 7.7 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 15.0. He holds 19% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.2% as the captain and 17.3% in a FLEX spot.
Steelers vs Browns Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 18.0 | 79% | 21.4% |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 16.3 | 65% | 17.6% |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 14.9 | 62% | 8.4% |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 12.3 | 35% | 8.1% |
| KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE | WR | $6,400 | $9,600 | 11.3 | 47% | 6.2% |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 11.2 | 37% | 4.6% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.1 | 37% | 7.8% |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 9.4 | 25% | 3.2% |
Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Steelers at Browns DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 18.0 | 26.9 | 1.91 |
| 2 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 16.3 | 24.5 | 1.70 |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 14.9 | 22.3 | 1.52 |
| 4 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 12.3 | 18.4 | 1.39 |
| 5 | KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE | WR | $6,400 | $9,600 | 11.3 | 17.0 | 1.77 |
| 6 | DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 11.2 | 16.8 | 1.25 |
| 7 | Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.1 | 16.6 | 1.50 |
| 8 | Denzel Boston | CLE | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 9.4 | 14.2 | 1.18 |
| 9 | Chris Boswell | PIT | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 1.57 |
| 10 | Andre Szmyt | CLE | K | $4,600 | $6,900 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 1.68 |
| 11 | Steelers | PIT | DST | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 1.54 |
| 12 | Roman Wilson | PIT | WR | $4,000 | $6,000 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 1.88 |
| 13 | Rico Dowdle | PIT | RB | $6,600 | $9,900 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 1.11 |
| 14 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | $5,600 | $8,400 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 1.30 |
| 15 | Browns | CLE | DST | $4,800 | $7,200 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 1.35 |
| 16 | Raheim Sanders | CLE | RB | $4,400 | $6,600 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 1.24 |
| 17 | Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 0.73 |
| 18 | Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | $3,600 | $5,400 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 1.15 |
| 19 | Germie Bernard | PIT | WR | $3,200 | $4,800 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.26 |
| 20 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | $3,000 | $4,500 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 1.32 |
| 21 | Blake Whiteheart | CLE | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.62 |
| 22 | Isaiah Bond | CLE | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.81 |
| 23 | Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE | RB | $400 | $600 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.65 |
| 24 | Tylan Wallace | CLE | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.19 |
| 25 | Robert Tonyan | PIT | TE | $600 | $900 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.93 |
| 26 | Travis Homer | PIT | RB | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.35 |
| 27 | Ben Skowronek | PIT | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.60 |
| 28 | Lew Nichols | PIT | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.48 |
| 29 | Michael Burton | CLE | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2.80 |
Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown?
Deshaun Watson holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 21.4%, ahead of Jaylen Warren (17.6%) and Aaron Rodgers (8.4%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Steelers vs Browns?
Build around Jaylen Warren at captain with Deshaun Watson, Quinshon Judkins and Denzel Boston at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (38 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $9,400 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown?
Deshaun Watson leads the SPAGS model at 18.0 DraftKings points for $9,400 at FLEX, or 26.9 points at captain for $14,100.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Steelers vs Browns Showdown?
Aaron Rodgers is the most expensive player at $9,800 FLEX and $14,700 at captain. All 29 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Steelers vs Browns DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Roman Wilson (7.5 points at $4,000), Andre Szmyt (7.7 points at $4,600) and Steelers (7.7 points at $5,000).
What is the Steelers vs Browns spread and total?
The Steelers are a 2.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 38.5, with implied team totals of 20.5 for the Steelers and 18 for the Browns.
More NFL DFS: Week 4 DraftKings main slate picks and projections.
Use READER for 25% off
Want the whole slate? VIP unlocks SPAGS projections and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building.
25% off your first payment. First-time customers only. Enter READER in Stripe checkout.
JOIN THE SQUAD →SEE HOW IT WORKS →