Bills vs Rams DraftKings Showdown Picks: Monday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Josh Allen has the highest SPAGS projection in the Bills at Rams DraftKings Showdown: 21.8 points at $11,800 FLEX, 32.8 at captain for $17,700. In a game totaled at 54.5, the model's favorite play is the quarterback who also runs. It has him carrying 6.6 times, and across 10,000 simulations he holds 63% of the winning-lineup credit. Matthew Stafford holds the most, at 68%. The case against Allen is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 7.8 points at an $11,800 FLEX salary.
He also has the largest captain share: 16.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Allen at captain. Matthew Stafford is the next captain in line, at 15.8%.
The Rams are a 3-point favorite, and the implied totals are 28.75 for the Rams and 25.75 for the Bills.
Behind Allen and Stafford, the next projections are Puka Nacua (20.4, $11,400), Kyren Williams (18.0, $9,800) and James Cook III (16.3, $10,600).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 9, 10:22 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
MNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Josh Allen, BUF QB ($11,800 FLEX / $17,700 CPT)
Josh Allen holds 16.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $17,700 and the 21.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 32.8 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 6.6 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Allen averaged 21.8 points with a simulated floor of 7.8 and a ceiling of 40.9. He holds 63% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 16.0% as the captain and 46.7% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Matthew Stafford, LAR QB ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Matthew Stafford holds 15.8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $13,500 and the 20.4-point SPAGS model projection becomes 30.5 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. Across 10,000 simulations Stafford averaged 20.5 points with a simulated floor of 8.1 and a ceiling of 37.9. He holds 68% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 15.8% as the captain and 52.3% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Puka Nacua, LAR WR ($11,400 FLEX / $17,100 CPT)
Puka Nacua holds 13.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $17,100 and the 20.4-point SPAGS model projection becomes 30.6 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 7.5 targets on 26.3 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Nacua averaged 20.4 points with a simulated floor of 9.0 and a ceiling of 40.7. He holds 53% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 13.9% as the captain and 39.1% in a FLEX spot.
Bills vs Rams DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,091 lineups in Chris Spags' MNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (18 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | $3,600 | 9.8 |
| FLEX | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $11,800 | 21.8 |
| FLEX | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | $11,400 | 20.4 |
| FLEX | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | $9,000 | 20.4 |
| Core total | $35,800 | 72.4 |
That leaves $14,200 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Dalton Kincaid at $9,900, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 13 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 5,091 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Bills vs Rams
Kyren Williams, LAR RB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Kyren Williams carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 18.0 DraftKings points for a $9,800 FLEX salary ($14,700 at captain). The model gives him 15.4 carries and 4.8 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 18.0 points with a simulated floor of 7.8 and a ceiling of 32.2. He holds 52% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.8% as the captain and 40.4% in a FLEX spot.
James Cook III, BUF RB ($10,600 FLEX / $15,900 CPT)
James Cook III carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.3 DraftKings points for a $10,600 FLEX salary ($15,900 at captain). The model gives him 19.3 carries and 2.5 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Cook averaged 16.3 points with a simulated floor of 6.7 and a ceiling of 31.3. He holds 39% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.8% as the captain and 32.1% in a FLEX spot.
Davante Adams, LAR WR ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Davante Adams carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 14.6 DraftKings points for a $9,400 FLEX salary ($14,100 at captain). The model gives him 6.9 targets on 28.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Adams averaged 14.7 points with a simulated floor of 3.8 and a ceiling of 36.3. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.2% as the captain and 24.5% in a FLEX spot.
Dalton Kincaid, BUF TE ($6,600 FLEX / $9,900 CPT)
Dalton Kincaid carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.8 DraftKings points for a $6,600 FLEX salary ($9,900 at captain). The model gives him 4.7 targets on 19.7 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Kincaid averaged 12.7 points with a simulated floor of 3.9 and a ceiling of 27.0. He holds 35% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.6% as the captain and 28.8% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Colby Parkinson, LAR TE ($2,400 FLEX / $3,600 CPT)
Colby Parkinson projects for 6.5 DraftKings points at a $2,400 FLEX salary, 2.72 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 1.6 targets on 12.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Parkinson averaged 6.5 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 24.5. He holds 20% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.3% as the captain and 17.2% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Blake Corum, LAR RB ($3,800 FLEX / $5,700 CPT)
Blake Corum projects for 8.7 DraftKings points at a $3,800 FLEX salary, 2.30 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 9.7 carries and 1.3 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Corum averaged 8.7 points with a simulated floor of 3.3 and a ceiling of 15.6. He holds 23% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.3% as the captain and 22.2% in a FLEX spot.
Bills vs Rams Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $11,800 | $17,700 | 21.8 | 63% | 16.0% |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | $11,400 | $17,100 | 20.4 | 53% | 13.9% |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 20.4 | 68% | 15.8% |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 18.0 | 52% | 11.8% |
| James Cook III | BUF | RB | $10,600 | $15,900 | 16.3 | 39% | 6.8% |
| Davante Adams | LAR | WR | $9,400 | $14,100 | 14.6 | 33% | 8.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | $6,600 | $9,900 | 12.8 | 35% | 6.6% |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 11.8 | 29% | 2.5% |
Bills vs Rams DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Bills at Rams DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $11,800 | $17,700 | 21.8 | 32.8 | 1.85 |
| 2 | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | $11,400 | $17,100 | 20.4 | 30.6 | 1.79 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 20.4 | 30.5 | 2.26 |
| 4 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 18.0 | 27.0 | 1.84 |
| 5 | James Cook III | BUF | RB | $10,600 | $15,900 | 16.3 | 24.5 | 1.54 |
| 6 | Davante Adams | LAR | WR | $9,400 | $14,100 | 14.6 | 21.9 | 1.55 |
| 7 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | $6,600 | $9,900 | 12.8 | 19.3 | 1.95 |
| 8 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 11.8 | 17.6 | 1.68 |
| 9 | Harrison Mevis | LAR | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 9.4 | 14.0 | 1.87 |
| 10 | Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | $5,600 | $8,400 | 9.3 | 14.0 | 1.67 |
| 11 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | $4,400 | $6,600 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 2.05 |
| 12 | Tyler Bass | BUF | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 1.84 |
| 13 | Blake Corum | LAR | RB | $3,800 | $5,700 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 2.30 |
| 14 | Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | $2,400 | $3,600 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 2.72 |
| 15 | Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | $3,200 | $4,800 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 1.82 |
| 16 | Joshua Palmer | BUF | WR | $3,000 | $4,500 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 1.92 |
| 17 | Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | $2,600 | $3,900 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 2.10 |
| 18 | Rams | LAR | DST | $4,200 | $6,300 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 1.19 |
| 19 | Bills | BUF | DST | $3,400 | $5,100 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.19 |
| 20 | Konata Mumpfield | LAR | WR | $2,200 | $3,300 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.81 |
| 21 | Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 1.55 |
| 22 | Davis Allen | LAR | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 1.91 |
| 23 | Ray Davis | BUF | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.20 |
| 24 | Greg Dortch | BUF | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.75 |
| 25 | Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.12 |
| 26 | Jackson Hawes | BUF | TE | $600 | $900 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.73 |
| 27 | Keleki Latu | BUF | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.55 |
| 28 | Skyler Bell | BUF | WR | $200 | $300 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.90 |
| 29 | Dean Connors | LAR | RB | $400 | $600 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.30 |
| 30 | Max Klare | LAR | TE | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.09 |
Bills vs Rams DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Bills vs Rams DraftKings Showdown?
Josh Allen holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 16.0%, ahead of Matthew Stafford (15.8%) and Puka Nacua (13.9%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Bills vs Rams?
Build around Colby Parkinson at captain with Josh Allen, Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (18 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $14,200 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Bills vs Rams DraftKings Showdown?
Josh Allen leads the SPAGS model at 21.8 DraftKings points for $11,800 at FLEX, or 32.8 points at captain for $17,700.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Bills vs Rams Showdown?
Josh Allen is the most expensive player at $11,800 FLEX and $17,700 at captain. All 30 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Bills vs Rams DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Colby Parkinson (6.5 points at $2,400), Blake Corum (8.7 points at $3,800) and Dawson Knox (5.5 points at $2,600).
What is the Bills vs Rams spread and total?
The Rams are a 3-point favorite in a game totaled at 54.5, with implied team totals of 28.75 for the Rams and 25.75 for the Bills.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
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