NFL DFS Projections Week 5: DraftKings Picks, Values and Sim Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs carries the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 5 DraftKings main slate: 30.8 DraftKings points at $9,800. He also holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit across 10,000 simulations, more than any other player on the slate, with Jonathan Taylor second at 28% for $7,800.
Behind Gibbs, the model's next four projections are Jaylen Warren (25.1, $6,700), Amon-Ra St. Brown (21.8, $7,900), Trey McBride (21.7, $6,700) and Jonathan Taylor (20.6, $7,800). Jaylen Warren returns the most per dollar of that group at 3.74 projected points per $1,000. Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the wide receivers at 21.8 for $7,900, Drake Maye leads the quarterbacks at 20.2 for $6,300, and Trey McBride leads the tight ends at 21.7 for $6,700.
The 11-game slate runs from a 54.5-point total in DET at ARI down to 39.5 in HOU at TEN. Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 6, 10:26 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup credit comes from 10,000 simulations of the contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
Top 5 SPAGS model projections for Week 5 (DraftKings)
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS model proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $9,800 | 30.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | $6,700 | 25.1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | $7,900 | 21.8 |
| Trey McBride | ARI | TE | $6,700 | 21.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | $7,800 | 20.6 |
Quarterbacks: Week 5 DraftKings projections
Drake Maye, NE vs LV ($6,300)
Drake Maye carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 20.2 DraftKings points at $6,300. That is 0.4 points clear of Jared Goff. The model includes 5.0 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 3.20 projected points per $1,000, 9th of 20 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Maye averaged 20.4 points with a simulated floor of 8.0 and a ceiling of 36.6, and he holds 9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. New England is a 3.5-point favorite at home against Las Vegas, with an implied team total of 24.5 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Jared Goff, DET at ARI ($6,600)
Jared Goff projects 2nd at the position with 19.8 DraftKings points at $6,600. The salary works out to 3.00 projected points per $1,000, 13th of 20 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Goff averaged 19.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.7 and a ceiling of 36.4, and he holds 10% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Detroit is a 4.5-point favorite on the road against Arizona, with an implied team total of 29.5 in a game totaled at 54.5.
Value: Tyson Bagent, CHI at GB ($4,700)
Tyson Bagent projects for 18.3 DraftKings points at $4,700, which works out to 3.90 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 20 quarterbacks the model projects for 15 or more points. The model includes 5.6 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Bagent averaged 18.3 points with a simulated floor of 7.5 and a ceiling of 33.6, and he holds 8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Chicago is a 3-point favorite on the road against Green Bay, with an implied team total of 24.25 in a game totaled at 45.5.
Running backs: Week 5 DraftKings projections
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at ARI ($9,800)
Jahmyr Gibbs carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 30.8 DraftKings points at $9,800, the highest on the entire main slate. That is 5.7 points clear of Jaylen Warren. The model gives him 23.3 carries and 6.1 targets. The salary works out to 3.14 projected points per $1,000, 3rd of 25 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Gibbs averaged 30.9 points with a simulated floor of 19.0 and a ceiling of 45.7, and he holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Detroit is a 4.5-point favorite on the road against Arizona, with an implied team total of 29.5 in a game totaled at 54.5.
Jaylen Warren, PIT vs IND ($6,700)
Jaylen Warren projects 2nd at the position with 25.1 DraftKings points at $6,700, 2nd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 21.0 carries and 6.0 targets. The salary works out to 3.74 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 25 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Warren averaged 25.1 points with a simulated floor of 13.6 and a ceiling of 41.3, and he holds 25% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite at home against Indianapolis, with an implied team total of 23.5 in a game totaled at 44.5.
Jonathan Taylor, IND at PIT ($7,800)
Jonathan Taylor projects 3rd at the position with 20.6 DraftKings points at $7,800, 5th on the main slate overall. The model gives him 19.8 carries and 3.8 targets. The salary works out to 2.63 projected points per $1,000, 7th of 25 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Taylor averaged 20.4 points with a simulated floor of 8.7 and a ceiling of 37.0, and he holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Indianapolis is a 2.5-point underdog on the road against Pittsburgh, with an implied team total of 21 in a game totaled at 44.5.
Value: Emanuel Wilson, SEA vs SF ($5,300)
Emanuel Wilson projects for 17.0 DraftKings points at $5,300, which works out to 3.21 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 25 running backs the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 20.7 carries and 1.7 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Wilson averaged 17.1 points with a simulated floor of 7.3 and a ceiling of 31.7, and he holds 1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite at home against San Francisco, with an implied team total of 25 in a game totaled at 47.5.
Wide receivers: Week 5 DraftKings projections
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at ARI ($7,900)
Amon-Ra St. Brown carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 21.8 DraftKings points at $7,900, the 3rd-highest on the entire main slate. That is 1.5 points clear of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The model gives him 10.9 targets on 32.9 routes. The salary works out to 2.76 projected points per $1,000, 5th of 31 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Brown averaged 21.8 points with a simulated floor of 9.5 and a ceiling of 41.7, and he holds 26% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Detroit is a 4.5-point favorite on the road against Arizona, with an implied team total of 29.5 in a game totaled at 54.5.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs SF ($8,800)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 2nd at the position with 20.3 DraftKings points at $8,800. The model gives him 9.1 targets on 26.0 routes. The salary works out to 2.31 projected points per $1,000, 15th of 31 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 20.4 points with a simulated floor of 9.0 and a ceiling of 40.2, and he holds 16% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite at home against San Francisco, with an implied team total of 25 in a game totaled at 47.5.
Chris Olave, NO vs MIN ($7,700)
Chris Olave projects 3rd at the position with 18.7 DraftKings points at $7,700. The model gives him 10.6 targets on 37.3 routes. The salary works out to 2.43 projected points per $1,000, 12th of 31 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Olave averaged 18.6 points with a simulated floor of 7.4 and a ceiling of 38.8, and he holds 20% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. New Orleans is a 1.5-point underdog at home against Minnesota, with an implied team total of 20.5 in a game totaled at 42.5.
Value: Carnell Tate, TEN vs HOU ($5,300)
Carnell Tate projects for 17.3 DraftKings points at $5,300, which works out to 3.26 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 31 wide receivers the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 10.8 targets on 30.9 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Tate averaged 17.3 points with a simulated floor of 6.0 and a ceiling of 37.4, and he holds 3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Tennessee is a 7-point underdog at home against Houston, with an implied team total of 16.25 in a game totaled at 39.5.
Tight ends: Week 5 DraftKings projections
Trey McBride, ARI vs DET ($6,700)
Trey McBride carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 21.7 DraftKings points at $6,700, the 4th-highest on the entire main slate. That is 8.0 points clear of George Kittle. The model gives him 11.8 targets on 36.5 routes. The salary works out to 3.24 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 16 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McBride averaged 21.8 points with a simulated floor of 9.4 and a ceiling of 43.0, and he holds 24% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 4.5-point underdog at home against Detroit, with an implied team total of 25 in a game totaled at 54.5.
George Kittle, SF at SEA ($5,200)
George Kittle projects 2nd at the position with 13.7 DraftKings points at $5,200. The model gives him 5.9 targets on 23.3 routes. The salary works out to 2.63 projected points per $1,000, 5th of 16 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Kittle averaged 13.7 points with a simulated floor of 4.6 and a ceiling of 29.8, and he holds 4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. San Francisco is a 2.5-point underdog on the road against Seattle, with an implied team total of 22.5 in a game totaled at 47.5.
Value: Dalton Schultz, HOU at TEN ($4,000)
Dalton Schultz projects for 12.3 DraftKings points at $4,000, which works out to 3.09 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 16 tight ends the model projects for 7 or more points. The model gives him 7.0 targets on 27.9 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Schultz averaged 12.4 points with a simulated floor of 3.9 and a ceiling of 28.3, and he holds 16% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Houston is a 7-point favorite on the road against Tennessee, with an implied team total of 23.25 in a game totaled at 39.5.
Defenses: Week 5 DraftKings projections
Texans, HOU at TEN ($3,400)
Texans carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 8.2 DraftKings points at $3,400. That is 0.6 points clear of Broncos. The salary works out to 2.40 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 14 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Texans averaged 8.2 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 15.4, and it holds 1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Houston is a 7-point favorite on the road against Tennessee, with an implied team total of 23.25 in a game totaled at 39.5.
Value: Chargers, LAC vs DEN ($2,300)
Chargers projects for 6.2 DraftKings points at $2,300, which works out to 2.69 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 14 defenses the model projects for 6 or more points. Across 10,000 simulations Chargers averaged 6.2 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 15.5, and it holds 12% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog at home against Denver, with an implied team total of 19.5 in a game totaled at 42.5.
The sim's favorite plays
The main slate was simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field. These five players hold the most winning-lineup credit.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | Winning-lineup credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $9,800 | 44% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | $7,800 | 28% |
| Josh Downs | IND | WR | $6,000 | 27% |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR | $4,600 | 27% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | $7,900 | 26% |
Week 5 NFL DFS stack to build around (DraftKings)
Of the quarterback stacks in Chris Spags' Week 5 main-slate pool with at least 50 simulated lineups, this one had the strongest simulated return, weighted by how many lineups back it: the 421 lineups built on it cashed 46.7% of the time across 10,000 simulations.
| Role | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $6,000 | 19.2 |
| Stack | Stefon Diggs | WAS | WR | $5,500 | 13.2 |
| Stack total | $11,500 | 32.5 |
That leaves $38,500 of the $50,000 cap for the other 7 roster spots.
Every Top Stack ranked by simulated return is in the Splash Play NFL tool for members, and complete lineups with one-click DraftKings export come with Apex. See plans →
Week 5 game totals, spreads and implied points
DET at ARI carries the highest total on the slate at 54.5. Cincinnati is the biggest favorite, laying 7 against Miami. The three highest implied team totals belong to DET (29.5), ARI (25) and SEA (25). Lines are as of October 6, 10:26 AM ET and move before lock.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied points |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ ARI | 54.5 | DET -4.5 | DET 29.5 · ARI 25 |
| SF @ SEA | 47.5 | SEA -2.5 | SF 22.5 · SEA 25 |
| CHI @ GB | 45.5 | CHI -3 | CHI 24.25 · GB 21.25 |
| LV @ NE | 45.5 | NE -3.5 | LV 21 · NE 24.5 |
| IND @ PIT | 44.5 | PIT -2.5 | IND 21 · PIT 23.5 |
| NYG @ WAS | 43.5 | WAS -3 | NYG 20.25 · WAS 23.25 |
| DEN @ LAC | 42.5 | DEN -3.5 | DEN 23 · LAC 19.5 |
| CIN @ MIA | 42.5 | CIN -7 | CIN 24.75 · MIA 17.75 |
| MIN @ NO | 42.5 | MIN -1.5 | MIN 22 · NO 20.5 |
| CLE @ NYJ | 39.5 | NYJ -2.5 | CLE 18.5 · NYJ 21 |
| HOU @ TEN | 39.5 | HOU -7 | HOU 23.25 · TEN 16.25 |
Full Week 5 NFL DFS projections by position (DraftKings)
Every SPAGS model projection at each position for the Week 5 DraftKings main slate, ranked by projected points, from the October 6, 10:26 AM ET run.
Week 5 quarterback projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | NE vs LV | $6,300 | 20.2 | 3.20 |
| 2 | Jared Goff | DET at ARI | $6,600 | 19.8 | 3.00 |
| 3 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI vs DET | $5,500 | 19.8 | 3.60 |
| 4 | Jayden Daniels | WAS vs NYG | $6,000 | 19.2 | 3.21 |
| 5 | Brock Purdy | SF at SEA | $6,500 | 18.8 | 2.88 |
| 6 | Joe Burrow | CIN at MIA | $6,900 | 18.8 | 2.72 |
| 7 | Tyson Bagent | CHI at GB | $4,700 | 18.3 | 3.90 |
| 8 | Tyler Shough | NO vs MIN | $6,100 | 18.2 | 2.98 |
| 9 | Bo Nix | DEN at LAC | $5,600 | 17.9 | 3.20 |
| 10 | Deshaun Watson | CLE at NYJ | $5,100 | 17.9 | 3.51 |
| 11 | C.J. Stroud | HOU at TEN | $5,900 | 17.5 | 2.97 |
| 12 | Justin Herbert | LAC vs DEN | $5,100 | 17.2 | 3.38 |
| 13 | Kyler Murray | MIN at NO | $5,200 | 17.1 | 3.30 |
| 14 | Jordan Love | GB vs CHI | $5,700 | 17.0 | 2.98 |
| 15 | Sam Darnold | SEA vs SF | $5,800 | 16.7 | 2.87 |
| 16 | Daniel Jones | IND at PIT | $5,000 | 16.6 | 3.32 |
Week 5 running back projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET at ARI | $9,800 | 30.8 | 3.14 |
| 2 | Jaylen Warren | PIT vs IND | $6,700 | 25.1 | 3.74 |
| 3 | Jonathan Taylor | IND at PIT | $7,800 | 20.6 | 2.63 |
| 4 | Chase Brown | CIN at MIA | $6,900 | 20.1 | 2.91 |
| 5 | Christian McCaffrey | SF at SEA | $8,200 | 19.1 | 2.33 |
| 6 | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN at NO | $6,500 | 18.7 | 2.87 |
| 7 | Ashton Jeanty | LV at NE | $7,200 | 18.1 | 2.52 |
| 8 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs SF | $5,300 | 17.0 | 3.21 |
| 9 | Braelon Allen | NYJ vs CLE | $5,400 | 15.7 | 2.90 |
| 10 | Cam Skattebo | NYG at WAS | $6,000 | 15.6 | 2.59 |
| 11 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE at NYJ | $5,700 | 13.8 | 2.43 |
| 12 | Jeremiyah Love | ARI vs DET | $6,100 | 12.5 | 2.05 |
| 13 | D'Andre Swift | CHI at GB | $6,200 | 12.5 | 2.01 |
| 14 | David Montgomery | HOU at TEN | $5,800 | 12.3 | 2.13 |
| 15 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs LV | $5,500 | 11.9 | 2.16 |
| 16 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE vs LV | $5,000 | 11.3 | 2.27 |
| 17 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN at LAC | $5,000 | 11.2 | 2.25 |
| 18 | Tony Pollard | TEN vs HOU | $5,600 | 10.9 | 1.94 |
| 19 | MarShawn Lloyd | GB vs CHI | $4,800 | 10.7 | 2.23 |
| 20 | RJ Harvey | DEN at LAC | $5,200 | 10.6 | 2.03 |
| 21 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS vs NYG | $4,900 | 10.3 | 2.10 |
| 22 | Omarion Hampton | LAC vs DEN | $6,000 | 10.0 | 1.66 |
| 23 | Ollie Gordon II | MIA vs CIN | $5,300 | 9.9 | 1.88 |
| 24 | Kyle Monangai | CHI at GB | $5,200 | 9.7 | 1.86 |
| 25 | Alvin Kamara | NO vs MIN | $5,400 | 9.2 | 1.71 |
| 26 | Woody Marks | HOU at TEN | $4,800 | 8.7 | 1.80 |
| 27 | Isaiah Davis | NYJ vs CLE | $4,200 | 8.4 | 1.99 |
| 28 | Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs DET | $5,100 | 8.1 | 1.58 |
| 29 | George Holani | SEA vs SF | $4,500 | 7.6 | 1.68 |
| 30 | Kaleb Johnson | GB vs CHI | $4,600 | 6.6 | 1.44 |
| 31 | Keaton Mitchell | LAC vs DEN | $4,500 | 6.6 | 1.46 |
| 32 | Kaelon Black | SF at SEA | $4,700 | 6.1 | 1.30 |
Week 5 wide receiver projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET at ARI | $7,900 | 21.8 | 2.76 |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs SF | $8,800 | 20.3 | 2.31 |
| 3 | Chris Olave | NO vs MIN | $7,700 | 18.7 | 2.43 |
| 4 | Carnell Tate | TEN vs HOU | $5,300 | 17.3 | 3.26 |
| 5 | Michael Wilson | ARI vs DET | $6,200 | 17.3 | 2.78 |
| 6 | Christian Watson | GB vs CHI | $6,400 | 17.2 | 2.69 |
| 7 | Tee Higgins | CIN at MIA | $7,100 | 16.2 | 2.28 |
| 8 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN at MIA | $8,100 | 16.0 | 1.97 |
| 9 | Matthew Golden | GB vs CHI | $5,700 | 15.3 | 2.68 |
| 10 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ vs CLE | $6,600 | 15.2 | 2.31 |
| 11 | Josh Downs | IND at PIT | $6,000 | 15.1 | 2.52 |
| 12 | Malik Washington | MIA vs CIN | $4,600 | 14.7 | 3.19 |
| 13 | Stefon Diggs | WAS vs NYG | $5,500 | 13.2 | 2.41 |
| 14 | Luther Burden III | CHI at GB | $4,900 | 11.8 | 2.41 |
| 15 | DK Metcalf | PIT vs IND | $5,400 | 11.6 | 2.14 |
| 16 | Nico Collins | HOU at TEN | $7,500 | 11.4 | 1.52 |
| 17 | Antonio Williams | WAS vs NYG | $3,800 | 11.4 | 2.99 |
| 18 | Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs HOU | $4,500 | 11.1 | 2.47 |
| 19 | Malik Nabers | NYG at WAS | $6,300 | 11.0 | 1.75 |
| 20 | Jordan Addison | MIN at NO | $5,800 | 11.0 | 1.89 |
| 21 | Mike Evans | SF at SEA | $6,500 | 10.9 | 1.67 |
| 22 | Jaylen Waddle | DEN at LAC | $6,100 | 10.8 | 1.78 |
| 23 | Denzel Boston | CLE at NYJ | $5,200 | 10.4 | 2.01 |
| 24 | Quentin Johnston | LAC vs DEN | $5,100 | 10.0 | 1.96 |
| 25 | Kalif Raymond | CHI at GB | $3,900 | 9.9 | 2.54 |
| 26 | Tre Tucker | LV at NE | $4,800 | 9.7 | 2.03 |
| 27 | Dohnte Meyers | CIN at MIA | $3,500 | 9.7 | 2.76 |
| 28 | Devaughn Vele | NO vs MIN | $5,200 | 9.4 | 1.82 |
| 29 | KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE at NYJ | $4,200 | 9.4 | 2.23 |
| 30 | Malachi Fields | NYG at WAS | $4,300 | 9.2 | 2.15 |
| 31 | Tre' Harris | LAC vs DEN | $4,100 | 9.2 | 2.24 |
| 32 | Courtland Sutton | DEN at LAC | $4,600 | 8.9 | 1.94 |
| 33 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF at SEA | $5,500 | 8.9 | 1.61 |
| 34 | Jameson Williams | DET at ARI | $5,900 | 8.8 | 1.49 |
| 35 | Chris Bell | MIA vs CIN | $3,600 | 8.4 | 2.34 |
| 36 | Mack Hollins | NE vs LV | $4,200 | 8.3 | 1.97 |
| 37 | Ladd McConkey | LAC vs DEN | $5,600 | 8.1 | 1.45 |
| 38 | DeMario Douglas | NE vs LV | $3,500 | 8.1 | 2.31 |
| 39 | Romeo Doubs | NE vs LV | $5,000 | 8.0 | 1.60 |
| 40 | Roman Wilson | PIT vs IND | $3,700 | 8.0 | 2.15 |
Week 5 tight end projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | ARI vs DET | $6,700 | 21.7 | 3.24 |
| 2 | George Kittle | SF at SEA | $5,200 | 13.7 | 2.63 |
| 3 | Tyler Warren | IND at PIT | $5,000 | 13.6 | 2.71 |
| 4 | Brock Bowers | LV at NE | $7,000 | 12.9 | 1.85 |
| 5 | Dalton Schultz | HOU at TEN | $4,000 | 12.3 | 3.09 |
| 6 | Juwan Johnson | NO vs MIN | $4,500 | 12.3 | 2.73 |
| 7 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN at NO | $4,800 | 11.2 | 2.33 |
| 8 | Isaiah Likely | NYG at WAS | $4,300 | 10.7 | 2.49 |
| 9 | Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE at NYJ | $4,400 | 10.1 | 2.30 |
| 10 | Tucker Kraft | GB vs CHI | $4,700 | 9.8 | 2.09 |
| 11 | Sam LaPorta | DET at ARI | $4,900 | 9.5 | 1.94 |
| 12 | AJ Barner | SEA vs SF | $3,200 | 8.2 | 2.55 |
| 13 | Oronde Gadsden II | LAC vs DEN | $3,600 | 7.3 | 2.04 |
| 14 | Greg Dulcich | MIA vs CIN | $3,100 | 7.2 | 2.32 |
| 15 | Hunter Henry | NE vs LV | $3,700 | 7.0 | 1.90 |
| 16 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT vs IND | $3,900 | 7.0 | 1.80 |
Week 5 defense projections
| # | Player | Game | Salary | SPAGS proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texans | HOU at TEN | $3,400 | 8.2 | 2.40 |
| 2 | Broncos | DEN at LAC | $3,200 | 7.6 | 2.37 |
| 3 | Vikings | MIN at NO | $3,100 | 7.3 | 2.36 |
| 4 | Bengals | CIN at MIA | $3,500 | 7.2 | 2.05 |
| 5 | Browns | CLE at NYJ | $2,800 | 7.1 | 2.53 |
| 6 | Commanders | WAS vs NYG | $2,900 | 6.8 | 2.35 |
| 7 | Bears | CHI at GB | $2,900 | 6.8 | 2.33 |
| 8 | Steelers | PIT vs IND | $3,300 | 6.8 | 2.05 |
| 9 | Jets | NYJ vs CLE | $2,700 | 6.6 | 2.46 |
| 10 | Seahawks | SEA vs SF | $2,800 | 6.4 | 2.29 |
| 11 | Patriots | NE vs LV | $3,000 | 6.3 | 2.11 |
| 12 | Chargers | LAC vs DEN | $2,300 | 6.2 | 2.69 |
Floors, ceilings, simulated win rates, ownership and one-click DraftKings and FanDuel exports for every player are in the Splash Play NFL tool. Open the NFL DFS tool →
NFL DFS Week 5 projections FAQ
Who has the highest NFL DFS projection for Week 5?
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB) has the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 5 DraftKings main slate at 30.8 points for $9,800, as of October 6, 10:26 AM ET.
Who is the top quarterback projection for Week 5 on DraftKings?
Drake Maye leads the Week 5 quarterbacks at 20.2 projected DraftKings points for $6,300, vs LV.
What is the best NFL DFS stack for Week 5?
Build around Jayden Daniels with Stefon Diggs. Among quarterback stacks with at least 50 lineups in Chris Spags' simulated Week 5 pool, it had the strongest simulated return, weighted by how many lineups back it, cashing 46.7% of the time. The two players cost $11,500.
What is the best NFL DFS value play for Week 5?
Among players projected for at least 10 points, Tyson Bagent (QB, $4,700) returns the most projected points per $1,000 of salary at 3.90, projected for 18.3.
Which game has the highest total in NFL Week 5?
DET at ARI has the highest total on the Week 5 DraftKings main slate at 54.5 points, as of October 6, 10:26 AM ET. Lines move before lock.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
How are the SPAGS NFL DFS projections made?
SPAGS projections come from the Splash Play NFL model, built by Chris Spags from player workload, efficiency and game environment. The slate is then simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field to measure winning-lineup credit.
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