Ravens vs Falcons DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Bijan Robinson has the highest SPAGS projection in the Ravens at Falcons DraftKings Showdown: 21.1 points at $11,800 FLEX, 31.6 at captain for $17,700. Across 10,000 simulations Robinson holds 72% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Robinson is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 9.6 points at an $11,800 FLEX salary, in a game with a 43.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 26.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Robinson at captain. Drake London is the next captain in line, at 15.7%. The model gives him 7.3 targets on 21.0 routes.
Atlanta is a 3-point favorite, and the implied totals are 23.25 for the Falcons and 20.25 for the Ravens.
Behind Robinson and London, the next projections are Tyler Huntley (15.9, $8,800), Michael Penix Jr. (15.4, $9,400) and Derrick Henry (15.2, $11,000).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 9, 10:22 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Bijan Robinson, ATL RB ($11,800 FLEX / $17,700 CPT)
Bijan Robinson holds 26.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $17,700 and the 21.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 31.6 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 18.5 carries and 4.5 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Robinson averaged 21.1 points with a simulated floor of 9.6 and a ceiling of 37.8. He holds 72% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 26.3% as the captain and 45.4% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Drake London, ATL WR ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Drake London holds 15.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,700 and the 17.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 25.5 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 7.3 targets on 21.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations London averaged 16.8 points with a simulated floor of 5.4 and a ceiling of 36.8. He holds 53% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 15.7% as the captain and 37.1% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Zay Flowers, BAL WR ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Zay Flowers holds 11.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,000 and the 14.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 21.1 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 5.4 targets on 16.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Flowers averaged 14.1 points with a simulated floor of 3.2 and a ceiling of 34.7. He holds 40% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.1% as the captain and 28.4% in a FLEX spot.
Ravens vs Falcons DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 4,730 lineups in Chris Spags' SNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (25 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 118,906-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | $9,600 | 15.0 |
| FLEX | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $11,800 | 21.1 |
| FLEX | Drake London | ATL | WR | $9,800 | 17.0 |
| FLEX | Tyler Huntley | BAL | QB | $8,800 | 15.9 |
| Core total | $40,000 | 69.0 |
That leaves $10,000 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Kyle Pitts Sr. at $7,200, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 13 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 4,730 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Ravens vs Falcons
Tyler Huntley, BAL QB ($8,800 FLEX / $13,200 CPT)
Tyler Huntley carries the 3rd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.9 DraftKings points for an $8,800 FLEX salary ($13,200 at captain). The model includes 4.0 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Huntley averaged 15.8 points with a simulated floor of 6.2 and a ceiling of 28.4. He holds 61% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.5% as the captain and 51.7% in a FLEX spot.
Michael Penix Jr., ATL QB ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Michael Penix Jr. carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.4 DraftKings points for a $9,400 FLEX salary ($14,100 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Penix averaged 15.5 points with a simulated floor of 6.1 and a ceiling of 28.3. He holds 56% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.0% as the captain and 49.4% in a FLEX spot.
Derrick Henry, BAL RB ($11,000 FLEX / $16,500 CPT)
Derrick Henry carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.2 DraftKings points for an $11,000 FLEX salary ($16,500 at captain). The model gives him 20.3 carries and 1.4 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Henry averaged 15.2 points with a simulated floor of 5.7 and a ceiling of 29.4. He holds 47% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.0% as the captain and 38.0% in a FLEX spot.
Mark Andrews, BAL TE ($6,400 FLEX / $9,600 CPT)
Mark Andrews carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.0 DraftKings points for a $6,400 FLEX salary ($9,600 at captain). The model gives him 7.5 targets on 26.5 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Andrews averaged 10.1 points with a simulated floor of 1.9 and a ceiling of 25.7. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.2% as the captain and 26.4% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Jahan Dotson, ATL WR ($3,600 FLEX / $5,400 CPT)
Jahan Dotson projects for 5.8 DraftKings points at a $3,600 FLEX salary, 1.61 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 3.8 targets on 16.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Dotson averaged 5.8 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 14.5. He holds 18% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.0% as the captain and 16.5% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Tyler Loop, BAL K ($5,000 FLEX / $7,500 CPT)
Tyler Loop projects for 7.8 DraftKings points at a $5,000 FLEX salary, 1.57 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Loop averaged 7.8 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 16.0. He holds 25% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.9% as the captain and 23.8% in a FLEX spot.
Ravens vs Falcons Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $11,800 | $17,700 | 21.1 | 72% | 26.3% |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | $9,800 | $14,700 | 17.0 | 53% | 15.7% |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | QB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 15.9 | 61% | 9.5% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.4 | 56% | 7.0% |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $11,000 | $16,500 | 15.2 | 47% | 9.0% |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | $10,000 | $15,000 | 14.1 | 40% | 11.1% |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | $6,400 | $9,600 | 10.0 | 33% | 6.2% |
| Nick Folk | ATL | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 8.4 | 26% | 1.1% |
Ravens vs Falcons DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Ravens at Falcons DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $11,800 | $17,700 | 21.1 | 31.6 | 1.79 |
| 2 | Drake London | ATL | WR | $9,800 | $14,700 | 17.0 | 25.5 | 1.73 |
| 3 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | QB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 15.9 | 23.9 | 1.81 |
| 4 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.4 | 23.2 | 1.64 |
| 5 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $11,000 | $16,500 | 15.2 | 22.8 | 1.38 |
| 6 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | $10,000 | $15,000 | 14.1 | 21.1 | 1.41 |
| 7 | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | $6,400 | $9,600 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 1.56 |
| 8 | Nick Folk | ATL | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 8.4 | 12.6 | 1.55 |
| 9 | Tyler Loop | BAL | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 1.57 |
| 10 | Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL | RB | $5,800 | $8,700 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 1.34 |
| 11 | Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | TE | $4,800 | $7,200 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 1.55 |
| 12 | Jahan Dotson | ATL | WR | $3,600 | $5,400 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 1.61 |
| 13 | Falcons | ATL | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 1.43 |
| 14 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | $6,200 | $9,300 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 0.83 |
| 15 | Justice Hill | BAL | RB | $3,200 | $4,800 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 1.46 |
| 16 | Ravens | BAL | DST | $4,400 | $6,600 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 1.03 |
| 17 | Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | WR | $2,400 | $3,600 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.46 |
| 18 | Matt Hibner | BAL | TE | $1,400 | $2,100 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 2.43 |
| 19 | Austin Hooper | ATL | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 1.90 |
| 20 | Devontez Walker | BAL | WR | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 0.97 |
| 21 | Chris Moore | BAL | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 0.96 |
| 22 | Charlie Woerner | ATL | TE | $600 | $900 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.93 |
| 23 | Zachariah Branch | ATL | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 1.16 |
| 24 | LaJohntay Wester | BAL | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.07 |
| 25 | Chris Blair | ATL | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.41 |
| 26 | Nick Muse | ATL | TE | $200 | $300 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 9.10 |
| 27 | Josh Cuevas | BAL | TE | $200 | $300 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 8.60 |
| 28 | Rasheen Ali | BAL | RB | $400 | $600 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.35 |
Ravens vs Falcons DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Ravens vs Falcons DraftKings Showdown?
Bijan Robinson holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 26.3%, ahead of Drake London (15.7%) and Zay Flowers (11.1%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Ravens vs Falcons?
Build around Mark Andrews at captain with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Tyler Huntley at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (25 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $10,000 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Ravens vs Falcons DraftKings Showdown?
Bijan Robinson leads the SPAGS model at 21.1 DraftKings points for $11,800 at FLEX, or 31.6 points at captain for $17,700.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Ravens vs Falcons Showdown?
Bijan Robinson is the most expensive player at $11,800 FLEX and $17,700 at captain. All 28 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Ravens vs Falcons DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Jahan Dotson (5.8 points at $3,600), Tyler Loop (7.8 points at $5,000) and Kyle Pitts Sr. (7.4 points at $4,800).
What is the Ravens vs Falcons spread and total?
The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in a game totaled at 43.5, with implied team totals of 23.25 for the Falcons and 20.25 for the Ravens.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
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