Buccaneers vs Cowboys DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Dak Prescott has the highest SPAGS projection in the Buccaneers at Cowboys DraftKings Showdown: 19.7 points at $10,400 FLEX, 29.6 at captain for $15,600. Across 10,000 simulations Prescott holds 72% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Prescott is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 7.8 points at a $10,400 FLEX salary, in a game with a 47.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 14.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Prescott at captain. Jalon Daniels is the next captain in line, at 14.2%. The model has him running 6.5 times.
Dallas is a 9.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 28.5 for the Cowboys and 19 for the Buccaneers.
Behind Prescott and Daniels, the next projections are CeeDee Lamb (18.6, $11,800), Javonte Williams (17.9, $10,800) and George Pickens (15.0, $9,400).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 6, 10:44 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Dak Prescott, DAL QB ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Dak Prescott holds 14.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $15,600 and the 19.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 29.6 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. Across 10,000 simulations Prescott averaged 19.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.8 and a ceiling of 36.4. He holds 72% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 14.9% as the captain and 57.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Jalon Daniels, TB QB ($8,600 FLEX / $12,900 CPT)
Jalon Daniels holds 14.2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $12,900 and the 18.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 27.0 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 6.5 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Daniels averaged 18.1 points with a simulated floor of 7.2 and a ceiling of 33.6. He holds 66% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 14.2% as the captain and 51.6% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: CeeDee Lamb, DAL WR ($11,800 FLEX / $17,700 CPT)
CeeDee Lamb holds 12.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $17,700 and the 18.6-point SPAGS model projection becomes 27.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 8.4 targets on 31.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Lamb averaged 18.8 points with a simulated floor of 7.3 and a ceiling of 38.4. He holds 53% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.1% as the captain and 40.9% in a FLEX spot.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 3,305 lineups in Chris Spags' TNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (30 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Jalon Daniels | TB | QB | $12,900 | 27.0 |
| FLEX | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | $10,400 | 19.7 |
| FLEX | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | $10,800 | 17.9 |
| FLEX | Bucky Irving | TB | RB | $8,400 | 12.9 |
| Core total | $42,500 | 77.6 |
That leaves $7,500 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: George Pickens at $14,100, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 28 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 3,305 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Buccaneers vs Cowboys
Javonte Williams, DAL RB ($10,800 FLEX / $16,200 CPT)
Javonte Williams carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 17.9 DraftKings points for a $10,800 FLEX salary ($16,200 at captain). The model gives him 18.7 carries and 3.5 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 17.9 points with a simulated floor of 8.1 and a ceiling of 32.8. He holds 54% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.8% as the captain and 41.8% in a FLEX spot.
George Pickens, DAL WR ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
George Pickens carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.0 DraftKings points for a $9,400 FLEX salary ($14,100 at captain). The model gives him 7.7 targets on 32.9 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Pickens averaged 15.1 points with a simulated floor of 4.2 and a ceiling of 35.4. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.4% as the captain and 31.3% in a FLEX spot.
Bucky Irving, TB RB ($8,400 FLEX / $12,600 CPT)
Bucky Irving carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.9 DraftKings points for an $8,400 FLEX salary ($12,600 at captain). The model gives him 11.5 carries and 4.6 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Irving averaged 13.0 points with a simulated floor of 3.9 and a ceiling of 27.7. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.3% as the captain and 25.9% in a FLEX spot.
Brandon Aubrey, DAL K ($5,400 FLEX / $8,100 CPT)
Brandon Aubrey carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.6 DraftKings points for a $5,400 FLEX salary ($8,100 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Aubrey averaged 9.6 points with a simulated floor of 4.0 and a ceiling of 17.0. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.4% as the captain and 31.8% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Ryan Flournoy, DAL WR ($3,800 FLEX / $5,700 CPT)
Ryan Flournoy projects for 9.4 DraftKings points at a $3,800 FLEX salary, 2.48 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 6.1 targets on 26.5 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Flournoy averaged 9.4 points with a simulated floor of 2.2 and a ceiling of 21.9. He holds 41% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.2% as the captain and 37.0% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Ted Hurst III, TB WR ($2,800 FLEX / $4,200 CPT)
Ted Hurst III projects for 6.2 DraftKings points at a $2,800 FLEX salary, 2.21 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.4 targets on 26.3 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Hurst averaged 6.2 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 18.0. He holds 21% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 2.6% as the captain and 18.2% in a FLEX spot.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 19.7 | 72% | 14.9% |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | $11,800 | $17,700 | 18.6 | 53% | 12.1% |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | QB | $8,600 | $12,900 | 18.0 | 66% | 14.2% |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | $10,800 | $16,200 | 17.9 | 54% | 11.8% |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.0 | 42% | 10.4% |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RB | $8,400 | $12,600 | 12.9 | 33% | 7.3% |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 9.6 | 33% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | $3,800 | $5,700 | 9.4 | 41% | 4.2% |
Buccaneers vs Cowboys DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Buccaneers at Cowboys DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 19.7 | 29.6 | 1.90 |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | $11,800 | $17,700 | 18.6 | 27.9 | 1.58 |
| 3 | Jalon Daniels | TB | QB | $8,600 | $12,900 | 18.0 | 27.0 | 2.10 |
| 4 | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | $10,800 | $16,200 | 17.9 | 26.8 | 1.66 |
| 5 | George Pickens | DAL | WR | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.0 | 22.5 | 1.60 |
| 6 | Bucky Irving | TB | RB | $8,400 | $12,600 | 12.9 | 19.4 | 1.54 |
| 7 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 9.6 | 14.4 | 1.78 |
| 8 | Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | $3,800 | $5,700 | 9.4 | 14.2 | 2.48 |
| 9 | Cade Otton | TB | TE | $4,400 | $6,600 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 1.97 |
| 10 | Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | $8,200 | $12,300 | 8.4 | 12.6 | 1.03 |
| 11 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | $6,400 | $9,600 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 1.29 |
| 12 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 1.58 |
| 13 | Kenny Gainwell | TB | RB | $4,000 | $6,000 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 1.97 |
| 14 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | $7,200 | $10,800 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 0.98 |
| 15 | Cowboys | DAL | DST | $4,800 | $7,200 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 1.41 |
| 16 | Ted Hurst III | TB | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 2.21 |
| 17 | Buccaneers | TB | DST | $3,000 | $4,500 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 1.51 |
| 18 | Tez Johnson | TB | WR | $2,200 | $3,300 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 1.84 |
| 19 | Tyler Goodson | DAL | RB | $2,000 | $3,000 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.90 |
| 20 | KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.16 |
| 21 | Emari Demercado | DAL | RB | $400 | $600 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 4.75 |
| 22 | Sean Tucker | TB | RB | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.75 |
| 23 | Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.70 |
| 24 | Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.45 |
| 25 | Payne Durham | TB | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 3.10 |
| 26 | Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | $600 | $900 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.93 |
| 27 | Jonathan Mingo | DAL | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.64 |
Buccaneers vs Cowboys DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Buccaneers vs Cowboys DraftKings Showdown?
Dak Prescott holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 14.9%, ahead of Jalon Daniels (14.2%) and CeeDee Lamb (12.1%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Buccaneers vs Cowboys?
Build around Jalon Daniels at captain with Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams and Bucky Irving at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (30 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $7,500 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Buccaneers vs Cowboys DraftKings Showdown?
Dak Prescott leads the SPAGS model at 19.7 DraftKings points for $10,400 at FLEX, or 29.6 points at captain for $15,600.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Buccaneers vs Cowboys Showdown?
CeeDee Lamb is the most expensive player at $11,800 FLEX and $17,700 at captain. All 27 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Buccaneers vs Cowboys DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Ryan Flournoy (9.4 points at $3,800), Ted Hurst III (6.2 points at $2,800) and Cade Otton (8.7 points at $4,400).
What is the Buccaneers vs Cowboys spread and total?
The Cowboys are a 9.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 47.5, with implied team totals of 28.5 for the Cowboys and 19 for the Buccaneers.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
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