Commanders vs 49ers DraftKings Showdown Picks: Monday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Christian McCaffrey has the highest SPAGS projection in the Commanders at 49ers DraftKings Showdown: 22.0 points at $11,800 FLEX, 33.0 at captain for $17,700. Across 10,000 simulations McCaffrey holds 67% of the winning-lineup credit. Brock Purdy holds the most, at 71%. The case against McCaffrey is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 10.4 points at an $11,800 FLEX salary, in a game with a 51.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 20.2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with McCaffrey at captain. Brock Purdy is the next captain in line, at 18.8%. The model has him running 4.1 times.
San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 29.5 for the 49ers and 22 for the Commanders.
Behind McCaffrey and Purdy, the next projections are Jayden Daniels (20.0, $10,000), George Kittle (16.2, $8,200) and Mike Evans (16.2, $9,600).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 15, 11:56 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
MNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Christian McCaffrey, SF RB ($11,800 FLEX / $17,700 CPT)
Christian McCaffrey holds 20.2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $17,700 and the 22.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 33.0 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 14.6 carries and 6.0 targets. Across 10,000 simulations McCaffrey averaged 22.0 points with a simulated floor of 10.4 and a ceiling of 38.3. He holds 67% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 20.2% as the captain and 46.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Brock Purdy, SF QB ($10,800 FLEX / $16,200 CPT)
Brock Purdy holds 18.8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $16,200 and the 21.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 32.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 4.1 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Purdy averaged 21.8 points with a simulated floor of 8.3 and a ceiling of 40.3. He holds 71% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 18.8% as the captain and 52.0% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Jayden Daniels, WAS QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Jayden Daniels holds 16.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,000 and the 20.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 30.0 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 6.7 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Daniels averaged 20.1 points with a simulated floor of 8.1 and a ceiling of 37.4. He holds 68% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 16.1% as the captain and 51.9% in a FLEX spot.
Commanders vs 49ers DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 3,784 lineups in Chris Spags' MNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (31 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $15,000 | 30.0 |
| FLEX | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $11,800 | 22.0 |
| FLEX | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | $10,800 | 21.8 |
| FLEX | Antonio Williams | WAS | WR | $4,200 | 8.2 |
| Core total | $41,800 | 82.0 |
That leaves $8,200 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Treylon Burks at $4,800, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 23 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 3,784 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Commanders vs 49ers
George Kittle, SF TE ($8,200 FLEX / $12,300 CPT)
George Kittle carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.2 DraftKings points for an $8,200 FLEX salary ($12,300 at captain). The model gives him 6.8 targets on 21.4 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Kittle averaged 16.1 points with a simulated floor of 5.9 and a ceiling of 34.4. He holds 52% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.9% as the captain and 40.1% in a FLEX spot.
Mike Evans, SF WR ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Mike Evans carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.2 DraftKings points for a $9,600 FLEX salary ($14,400 at captain). The model gives him 6.7 targets on 19.2 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Evans averaged 16.2 points with a simulated floor of 4.7 and a ceiling of 36.3. He holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.7% as the captain and 32.5% in a FLEX spot.
Terry McLaurin, WAS WR ($8,000 FLEX / $12,000 CPT)
Terry McLaurin carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.9 DraftKings points for an $8,000 FLEX salary ($12,000 at captain). The model gives him 6.2 targets on 27.5 routes. Across 10,000 simulations McLaurin averaged 11.9 points with a simulated floor of 5.0 and a ceiling of 23.9. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.5% as the captain and 29.7% in a FLEX spot.
Eddy Pineiro, SF K ($5,200 FLEX / $7,800 CPT)
Eddy Pineiro carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.5 DraftKings points for a $5,200 FLEX salary ($7,800 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Pineiro averaged 9.4 points with a simulated floor of 4.0 and a ceiling of 17.0. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.4% as the captain and 31.9% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Antonio Williams, WAS WR ($4,200 FLEX / $6,300 CPT)
Antonio Williams projects for 8.2 DraftKings points at a $4,200 FLEX salary, 1.95 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.4 targets on 18.2 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 8.3 points with a simulated floor of 1.0 and a ceiling of 20.1. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 2.8% as the captain and 27.2% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Treylon Burks, WAS WR ($3,200 FLEX / $4,800 CPT)
Treylon Burks projects for 5.8 DraftKings points at a $3,200 FLEX salary, 1.82 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 3.1 targets on 18.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Burks averaged 5.8 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 14.8. He holds 20% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.1% as the captain and 18.7% in a FLEX spot.
Commanders vs 49ers Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $11,800 | $17,700 | 22.0 | 67% | 20.2% |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | $10,800 | $16,200 | 21.8 | 71% | 18.8% |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 20.0 | 68% | 16.1% |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | $8,200 | $12,300 | 16.2 | 52% | 11.9% |
| Mike Evans | SF | WR | $9,600 | $14,400 | 16.2 | 44% | 11.7% |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 11.9 | 33% | 3.5% |
| Eddy Pineiro | SF | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 9.5 | 33% | 1.4% |
| Antonio Williams | WAS | WR | $4,200 | $6,300 | 8.2 | 30% | 2.8% |
Commanders vs 49ers DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Commanders at 49ers DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $11,800 | $17,700 | 22.0 | 33.0 | 1.87 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | $10,800 | $16,200 | 21.8 | 32.7 | 2.02 |
| 3 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 20.0 | 30.0 | 2.00 |
| 4 | George Kittle | SF | TE | $8,200 | $12,300 | 16.2 | 24.3 | 1.98 |
| 5 | Mike Evans | SF | WR | $9,600 | $14,400 | 16.2 | 24.3 | 1.68 |
| 6 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 11.9 | 17.9 | 1.49 |
| 7 | Eddy Pineiro | SF | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 9.5 | 14.2 | 1.82 |
| 8 | Antonio Williams | WAS | WR | $4,200 | $6,300 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 1.95 |
| 9 | Drew Stevens | WAS | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 1.63 |
| 10 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | $7,000 | $10,500 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 1.14 |
| 11 | Chig Okonkwo | WAS | TE | $4,600 | $6,900 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 1.71 |
| 12 | Rachaad White | WAS | RB | $6,600 | $9,900 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 1.17 |
| 13 | Treylon Burks | WAS | WR | $3,200 | $4,800 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 1.82 |
| 14 | Brandin Cooks | SF | WR | $4,000 | $6,000 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 1.45 |
| 15 | 49ers | SF | DST | $4,400 | $6,600 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 1.19 |
| 16 | Kaelon Black | SF | RB | $3,800 | $5,700 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 1.36 |
| 17 | Austin Ekeler | WAS | RB | $3,600 | $5,400 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 0.99 |
| 18 | Commanders | WAS | DST | $3,400 | $5,100 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.04 |
| 19 | Dyami Brown | WAS | WR | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 1.09 |
| 20 | Jacob Cowing | SF | WR | $2,200 | $3,300 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 1.26 |
| 21 | Jordan Watkins | SF | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.25 |
| 22 | Luke Farrell | SF | TE | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.03 |
| 23 | John Bates | WAS | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.01 |
| 24 | Ben Sinnott | WAS | TE | $600 | $900 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.98 |
| 25 | Jordan James | SF | RB | $400 | $600 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.85 |
| 26 | Van Jefferson | WAS | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.74 |
| 27 | Brayden Willis | SF | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.55 |
| 28 | Colson Yankoff | WAS | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.50 |
| 29 | Malik Turner | SF | WR | $200 | $300 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.80 |
Commanders vs 49ers DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Commanders vs 49ers DraftKings Showdown?
Christian McCaffrey holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 20.2%, ahead of Brock Purdy (18.8%) and Jayden Daniels (16.1%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Commanders vs 49ers?
Build around Jayden Daniels at captain with Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy and Antonio Williams at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (31 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $8,200 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Commanders vs 49ers DraftKings Showdown?
Christian McCaffrey leads the SPAGS model at 22.0 DraftKings points for $11,800 at FLEX, or 33.0 points at captain for $17,700.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Commanders vs 49ers Showdown?
Christian McCaffrey is the most expensive player at $11,800 FLEX and $17,700 at captain. All 29 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Commanders vs 49ers DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Antonio Williams (8.2 points at $4,200), Treylon Burks (5.8 points at $3,200) and Chig Okonkwo (7.9 points at $4,600).
What is the Commanders vs 49ers spread and total?
The 49ers are a 7.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 51.5, with implied team totals of 29.5 for the 49ers and 22 for the Commanders.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
More NFL DFS: Week 6 DraftKings main slate picks and projections.
Use READER for 25% off
Want the whole slate? VIP unlocks SPAGS projections and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building.
25% off your first payment. First-time customers only. Enter READER in Stripe checkout.
JOIN THE SQUAD →SEE HOW IT WORKS →