Cowboys vs Packers DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Dak Prescott has the highest SPAGS projection in the Cowboys at Packers DraftKings Showdown: 19.4 points at $10,400 FLEX, 29.2 at captain for $15,600. Across 10,000 simulations Prescott holds 60% of the winning-lineup credit. Jordan Love holds the most, at 63%. The case against Prescott is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 7.7 points at a $10,400 FLEX salary, in a game with a 53.5-point total.
Javonte Williams has the largest captain share: 12.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Williams at captain. The model gives him 18.3 carries and 3.4 targets. CeeDee Lamb is the next captain in line, at 11.8%. The model gives him 9.1 targets on 35.0 routes.
Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 27.5 for the Packers and 26 for the Cowboys.
Behind Prescott, Williams and Lamb, the next projections are Jordan Love (19.1, $9,400), Christian Watson (16.3, $9,000) and George Pickens (15.2, $8,800).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 15, 11:56 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Javonte Williams, DAL RB ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Javonte Williams holds 12.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $14,400 and the 17.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 26.8 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 18.3 carries and 3.4 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 17.8 points with a simulated floor of 7.8 and a ceiling of 32.2. He holds 53% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.0% as the captain and 41.4% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: CeeDee Lamb, DAL WR ($10,800 FLEX / $16,200 CPT)
CeeDee Lamb holds 11.8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $16,200 and the 18.2-point SPAGS model projection becomes 27.4 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 9.1 targets on 35.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Lamb averaged 18.2 points with a simulated floor of 6.9 and a ceiling of 38.1. He holds 46% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.8% as the captain and 34.3% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Matthew Golden, GB WR ($8,000 FLEX / $12,000 CPT)
Matthew Golden holds 11.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $12,000 and the 15.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 22.5 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 7.4 targets on 30.7 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Golden averaged 14.9 points with a simulated floor of 4.0 and a ceiling of 36.0. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.7% as the captain and 30.0% in a FLEX spot.
Cowboys vs Packers DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,121 lineups in Chris Spags' SNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (18 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 142,687-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Matthew Golden | GB | WR | $12,000 | 22.5 |
| FLEX | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | $10,400 | 19.4 |
| FLEX | Jordan Love | GB | QB | $9,400 | 19.1 |
| FLEX | George Pickens | DAL | WR | $8,800 | 15.2 |
| Core total | $40,600 | 76.2 |
That leaves $9,400 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Ryan Flournoy at $6,600, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 14 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 5,121 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Cowboys vs Packers
Dak Prescott, DAL QB ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Dak Prescott carries the highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 19.4 DraftKings points for a $10,400 FLEX salary ($15,600 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Prescott averaged 19.4 points with a simulated floor of 7.7 and a ceiling of 35.5. He holds 60% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.1% as the captain and 49.6% in a FLEX spot.
Jordan Love, GB QB ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Jordan Love carries the 2nd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 19.1 DraftKings points for a $9,400 FLEX salary ($14,100 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Love averaged 19.0 points with a simulated floor of 7.3 and a ceiling of 34.8. He holds 63% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.4% as the captain and 52.9% in a FLEX spot.
Christian Watson, GB WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Christian Watson carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.3 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model gives him 7.3 targets on 30.3 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Watson averaged 16.2 points with a simulated floor of 5.0 and a ceiling of 35.6. He holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.0% as the captain and 32.8% in a FLEX spot.
George Pickens, DAL WR ($8,800 FLEX / $13,200 CPT)
George Pickens carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.2 DraftKings points for an $8,800 FLEX salary ($13,200 at captain). The model gives him 7.3 targets on 37.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Pickens averaged 15.3 points with a simulated floor of 4.3 and a ceiling of 36.1. He holds 40% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.9% as the captain and 29.3% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Trey Smack, GB K ($4,800 FLEX / $7,200 CPT)
Trey Smack projects for 10.0 DraftKings points at a $4,800 FLEX salary, 2.09 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Smack averaged 10.2 points with a simulated floor of 4.6 and a ceiling of 17.2. He holds 37% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.7% as the captain and 35.0% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Ryan Flournoy, DAL WR ($4,400 FLEX / $6,600 CPT)
Ryan Flournoy projects for 8.9 DraftKings points at a $4,400 FLEX salary, 2.02 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 5.1 targets on 30.5 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Flournoy averaged 8.8 points with a simulated floor of 2.1 and a ceiling of 20.7. He holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 2.9% as the captain and 25.5% in a FLEX spot.
Cowboys vs Packers Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 19.4 | 60% | 10.1% |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 19.1 | 63% | 10.4% |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | $10,800 | $16,200 | 18.2 | 46% | 11.8% |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 17.9 | 53% | 12.0% |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 16.3 | 44% | 11.0% |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | $8,800 | $13,200 | 15.2 | 40% | 10.9% |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 15.0 | 42% | 11.7% |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | $6,800 | $10,200 | 12.9 | 39% | 7.8% |
Cowboys vs Packers DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Cowboys at Packers DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 19.4 | 29.2 | 1.87 |
| 2 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 19.1 | 28.7 | 2.03 |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | $10,800 | $16,200 | 18.2 | 27.4 | 1.69 |
| 4 | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 17.9 | 26.8 | 1.86 |
| 5 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 16.3 | 24.5 | 1.81 |
| 6 | George Pickens | DAL | WR | $8,800 | $13,200 | 15.2 | 22.9 | 1.73 |
| 7 | Matthew Golden | GB | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 15.0 | 22.5 | 1.87 |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | $6,800 | $10,200 | 12.9 | 19.3 | 1.89 |
| 9 | MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB | $7,400 | $11,100 | 10.9 | 16.4 | 1.47 |
| 10 | Trey Smack | GB | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 10.0 | 15.1 | 2.09 |
| 11 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 8.9 | 13.3 | 1.71 |
| 12 | Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | $4,400 | $6,600 | 8.9 | 13.3 | 2.02 |
| 13 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | $5,600 | $8,400 | 8.3 | 12.5 | 1.48 |
| 14 | Packers | GB | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 1.22 |
| 15 | Kaleb Johnson | GB | RB | $3,400 | $5,100 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.17 |
| 16 | Pierre Strong Jr. | GB | RB | $3,000 | $4,500 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 1.24 |
| 17 | Cowboys | DAL | DST | $3,600 | $5,400 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 0.98 |
| 18 | Bo Melton | GB | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.05 |
| 19 | Jonnu Smith | GB | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.63 |
| 20 | Tyler Goodson | DAL | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.81 |
| 21 | KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.26 |
| 22 | Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL | TE | $600 | $900 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.13 |
| 23 | Jonathan Mingo | DAL | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.72 |
| 24 | J. Michael Sturdivant | GB | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.31 |
| 25 | Mark Redman | GB | TE | $200 | $300 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 6.35 |
| 26 | Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | $400 | $600 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.42 |
| 27 | Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.70 |
| 28 | Josh Whyle | GB | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.50 |
Cowboys vs Packers DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Cowboys vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
Javonte Williams holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 12.0%, ahead of CeeDee Lamb (11.8%) and Matthew Golden (11.7%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Cowboys vs Packers?
Build around Matthew Golden at captain with Dak Prescott, Jordan Love and George Pickens at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (18 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $9,400 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Cowboys vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
Dak Prescott leads the SPAGS model at 19.4 DraftKings points for $10,400 at FLEX, or 29.2 points at captain for $15,600.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Cowboys vs Packers Showdown?
CeeDee Lamb is the most expensive player at $10,800 FLEX and $16,200 at captain. All 28 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Cowboys vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Trey Smack (10.0 points at $4,800), Ryan Flournoy (8.9 points at $4,400) and Packers (4.9 points at $4,000).
What is the Cowboys vs Packers spread and total?
The Packers are a 1.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 53.5, with implied team totals of 27.5 for the Packers and 26 for the Cowboys.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
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