Seahawks vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the highest SPAGS projection in the Seahawks at Broncos DraftKings Showdown: 19.4 points at $11,600 FLEX, 29.1 at captain for $17,400. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba holds 80% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Smith-Njigba is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 7.9 points at an $11,600 FLEX salary, in a game with a 40.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 22.2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Smith-Njigba at captain. Bo Nix is the next captain in line, at 12.5%. The model has him running 3.7 times.
Seattle is a 3-point favorite, and the implied totals are 21.75 for the Seahawks and 18.75 for the Broncos.
Behind Smith-Njigba and Nix, the next projections are Sam Darnold (15.4, $9,800), Emanuel Wilson (14.0, $9,400) and Jaylen Waddle (11.3, $9,000).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 13, 11:14 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA WR ($11,600 FLEX / $17,400 CPT)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba holds 22.2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $17,400 and the 19.4-point SPAGS model projection becomes 29.1 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 8.8 targets on 25.1 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 19.5 points with a simulated floor of 7.9 and a ceiling of 39.0. He holds 80% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 22.2% as the captain and 57.3% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Bo Nix, DEN QB ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Bo Nix holds 12.5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,400 and the 15.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 23.6 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 3.7 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Nix averaged 15.7 points with a simulated floor of 5.9 and a ceiling of 28.7. He holds 72% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.5% as the captain and 59.9% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Emanuel Wilson, SEA RB ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Emanuel Wilson holds 10.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,100 and the 14.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 20.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 18.6 carries and 1.3 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Wilson averaged 13.9 points with a simulated floor of 4.6 and a ceiling of 29.2. He holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.1% as the captain and 33.8% in a FLEX spot.
Seahawks vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,112 lineups in Chris Spags' TNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (52 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Evan Engram | DEN | TE | $6,000 | 9.5 |
| FLEX | Bo Nix | DEN | QB | $9,600 | 15.7 |
| FLEX | Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | $9,400 | 14.0 |
| FLEX | Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $9,000 | 11.3 |
| Core total | $34,000 | 50.5 |
That leaves $16,000 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Broncos DST at $7,200, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 50 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 5,112 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Seahawks vs Broncos
Sam Darnold, SEA QB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Sam Darnold carries the 3rd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.4 DraftKings points for a $9,800 FLEX salary ($14,700 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Darnold averaged 15.5 points with a simulated floor of 6.3 and a ceiling of 28.6. He holds 69% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.5% as the captain and 60.4% in a FLEX spot.
Jaylen Waddle, DEN WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Jaylen Waddle carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.3 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model gives him 7.0 targets on 27.5 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Waddle averaged 11.3 points with a simulated floor of 4.2 and a ceiling of 23.1. He holds 36% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.1% as the captain and 32.0% in a FLEX spot.
RJ Harvey, DEN RB ($6,400 FLEX / $9,600 CPT)
RJ Harvey carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.3 DraftKings points for a $6,400 FLEX salary ($9,600 at captain). The model gives him 4.7 carries and 5.0 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Harvey averaged 10.4 points with a simulated floor of 4.9 and a ceiling of 17.1. He holds 23% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.0% as the captain and 19.9% in a FLEX spot.
J.K. Dobbins, DEN RB ($8,400 FLEX / $12,600 CPT)
J.K. Dobbins carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.8 DraftKings points for an $8,400 FLEX salary ($12,600 at captain). The model gives him 14.2 carries and 1.3 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Dobbins averaged 9.8 points with a simulated floor of 4.6 and a ceiling of 16.6. He holds 11% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.2% as the captain and 9.4% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Cooper Kupp, SEA WR ($3,200 FLEX / $4,800 CPT)
Cooper Kupp projects for 6.1 DraftKings points at a $3,200 FLEX salary, 1.92 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 3.4 targets on 19.3 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Kupp averaged 6.2 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 19.0. He holds 26% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.7% as the captain and 22.3% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Rashid Shaheed, SEA WR ($3,600 FLEX / $5,400 CPT)
Rashid Shaheed projects for 6.5 DraftKings points at a $3,600 FLEX salary, 1.80 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 3.9 targets on 18.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Shaheed averaged 6.4 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 19.2. He holds 27% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.6% as the captain and 23.0% in a FLEX spot.
Seahawks vs Broncos Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | $11,600 | $17,400 | 19.4 | 80% | 22.2% |
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 15.7 | 72% | 12.5% |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 15.4 | 69% | 8.5% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 14.0 | 44% | 10.1% |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 11.3 | 36% | 4.1% |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | $6,400 | $9,600 | 10.3 | 23% | 3.0% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | $8,400 | $12,600 | 9.8 | 11% | 1.2% |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 8.2 | 19% | 3.0% |
Seahawks vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Seahawks at Broncos DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | $11,600 | $17,400 | 19.4 | 29.1 | 1.67 |
| 2 | Bo Nix | DEN | QB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 1.64 |
| 3 | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 15.4 | 23.0 | 1.57 |
| 4 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 14.0 | 20.9 | 1.49 |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 11.3 | 17.0 | 1.26 |
| 6 | RJ Harvey | DEN | RB | $6,400 | $9,600 | 10.3 | 15.5 | 1.62 |
| 7 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | $8,400 | $12,600 | 9.8 | 14.7 | 1.16 |
| 8 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | $8,000 | $12,000 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 1.03 |
| 9 | Jason Myers | SEA | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 1.62 |
| 10 | Wil Lutz | DEN | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 1.40 |
| 11 | Seahawks | SEA | DST | $5,200 | $7,800 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 1.29 |
| 12 | Rashid Shaheed | SEA | WR | $3,600 | $5,400 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 1.80 |
| 13 | George Holani | SEA | RB | $4,400 | $6,600 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 1.47 |
| 14 | AJ Barner | SEA | TE | $4,200 | $6,300 | 6.4 | 9.7 | 1.53 |
| 15 | Evan Engram | DEN | TE | $4,000 | $6,000 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 1.59 |
| 16 | Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | $3,200 | $4,800 | 6.1 | 9.2 | 1.92 |
| 17 | Broncos | DEN | DST | $4,800 | $7,200 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 1.18 |
| 18 | Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | $3,000 | $4,500 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 1.54 |
| 19 | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 1.37 |
| 20 | Tory Horton | SEA | WR | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 1.17 |
| 21 | Tyler Badie | DEN | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.93 |
| 22 | Nate Adkins | DEN | TE | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.03 |
| 23 | Elijah Arroyo | SEA | TE | $600 | $900 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.43 |
| 24 | Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | $800 | $1,200 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.45 |
| 25 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.69 |
| 26 | Eric Saubert | SEA | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.86 |
| 27 | Adam Prentice | DEN | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 4.10 |
| 28 | Velus Jones Jr. | SEA | RB | $400 | $600 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.05 |
| 29 | Brady Russell | SEA | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3.85 |
Seahawks vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Seahawks vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 22.2%, ahead of Bo Nix (12.5%) and Emanuel Wilson (10.1%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Seahawks vs Broncos?
Build around Evan Engram at captain with Bo Nix, Emanuel Wilson and Jaylen Waddle at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (52 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $16,000 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Seahawks vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the SPAGS model at 19.4 DraftKings points for $11,600 at FLEX, or 29.1 points at captain for $17,400.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Seahawks vs Broncos Showdown?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most expensive player at $11,600 FLEX and $17,400 at captain. All 29 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Seahawks vs Broncos DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Cooper Kupp (6.1 points at $3,200), Rashid Shaheed (6.5 points at $3,600) and Jason Myers (8.1 points at $5,000).
What is the Seahawks vs Broncos spread and total?
The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in a game totaled at 40.5, with implied team totals of 21.75 for the Seahawks and 18.75 for the Broncos.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
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