Chiefs vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Chiefs vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown?
Kenneth Walker III has the highest SPAGS projection in the Chiefs at Seahawks DraftKings Showdown: 21.8 points at $12,000 FLEX, 32.6 at captain for $18,000. Across 10,000 simulations Walker holds 68% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Walker is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 9.1 points at a $12,000 FLEX salary, in a game with a 42.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 27.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Walker at captain. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the next captain in line, at 22.2%. The model gives him 9.4 targets on 27.1 routes.
Seattle is a 3-point favorite, and the implied totals are 22.75 for the Seahawks and 19.75 for the Chiefs.
Behind Walker and Smith-Njigba, the next projections are Patrick Mahomes (16.6, $10,400), Sam Darnold (15.2, $9,400) and Travis Kelce (12.0, $8,000).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 23, 10:04 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Kenneth Walker III, KC RB ($12,000 FLEX / $18,000 CPT)
Kenneth Walker III holds 27.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $18,000 and the 21.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 32.6 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 17.9 carries and 4.3 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Walker averaged 21.7 points with a simulated floor of 9.1 and a ceiling of 41.9. He holds 68% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 27.0% as the captain and 40.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA WR ($11,600 FLEX / $17,400 CPT)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba holds 22.2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $17,400 and the 20.5-point SPAGS model projection becomes 30.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 9.4 targets on 27.1 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 20.5 points with a simulated floor of 7.3 and a ceiling of 45.5. He holds 61% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 22.2% as the captain and 39.0% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Patrick Mahomes, KC QB ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Patrick Mahomes holds 11.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,600 and the 16.6-point SPAGS model projection becomes 24.8 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 3.2 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Mahomes averaged 16.5 points with a simulated floor of 5.5 and a ceiling of 33.6. He holds 54% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.4% as the captain and 42.2% in a FLEX spot.
Chiefs vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,027 lineups in Chris Spags' SNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (16 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 142,687-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | $17,400 | 30.7 |
| FLEX | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | $9,400 | 15.2 |
| FLEX | Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | $7,000 | 11.2 |
| FLEX | Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | $6,400 | 9.6 |
| Core total | $40,200 | 66.6 |
That leaves $9,800 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: AJ Barner at $6,900, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 14 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 5,027 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Chiefs vs Seahawks
Sam Darnold, SEA QB ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Sam Darnold carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.2 DraftKings points for a $9,400 FLEX salary ($14,100 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Darnold averaged 15.1 points with a simulated floor of 5.3 and a ceiling of 30.1. He holds 50% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.2% as the captain and 43.1% in a FLEX spot.
Travis Kelce, KC TE ($8,000 FLEX / $12,000 CPT)
Travis Kelce carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.0 DraftKings points for an $8,000 FLEX salary ($12,000 at captain). The model gives him 6.4 targets on 26.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Kelce averaged 12.1 points with a simulated floor of 3.6 and a ceiling of 27.9. He holds 37% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.2% as the captain and 30.1% in a FLEX spot.
Xavier Worthy, KC WR ($7,000 FLEX / $10,500 CPT)
Xavier Worthy carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.2 DraftKings points for a $7,000 FLEX salary ($10,500 at captain). The model gives him 6.6 targets on 28.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Worthy averaged 11.1 points with a simulated floor of 4.2 and a ceiling of 23.2. He holds 38% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.3% as the captain and 33.5% in a FLEX spot.
Emanuel Wilson, SEA RB ($6,400 FLEX / $9,600 CPT)
Emanuel Wilson carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.6 DraftKings points for a $6,400 FLEX salary ($9,600 at captain). The model gives him 17.4 carries and 1.2 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Wilson averaged 9.5 points with a simulated floor of 4.1 and a ceiling of 16.2. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.9% as the captain and 28.1% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Jalen Royals, KC WR ($3,400 FLEX / $5,100 CPT)
Jalen Royals projects for 6.2 DraftKings points at a $3,400 FLEX salary, 1.81 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 2.7 targets on 14.1 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Royals averaged 6.2 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 18.5. He holds 24% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 2.5% as the captain and 21.9% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Harrison Butker, KC K ($4,800 FLEX / $7,200 CPT)
Harrison Butker projects for 7.8 DraftKings points at a $4,800 FLEX salary, 1.61 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Butker averaged 7.7 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 16.0. He holds 27% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.9% as the captain and 26.1% in a FLEX spot.
Chiefs vs Seahawks Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $12,000 | $18,000 | 21.8 | 68% | 27.0% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | $11,600 | $17,400 | 20.5 | 61% | 22.2% |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 16.6 | 54% | 11.4% |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.2 | 50% | 7.2% |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | $8,000 | $12,000 | 12.0 | 37% | 7.2% |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 11.2 | 38% | 4.3% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | $6,400 | $9,600 | 9.6 | 30% | 1.9% |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 8.3 | 28% | 1.1% |
Chiefs vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Chiefs at Seahawks DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $12,000 | $18,000 | 21.8 | 32.6 | 1.81 |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | $11,600 | $17,400 | 20.5 | 30.7 | 1.76 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 16.6 | 24.8 | 1.59 |
| 4 | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.2 | 22.7 | 1.61 |
| 5 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | $8,000 | $12,000 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 1.50 |
| 6 | Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 11.2 | 16.8 | 1.60 |
| 7 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | $6,400 | $9,600 | 9.6 | 14.3 | 1.49 |
| 8 | Jason Myers | SEA | K | $5,200 | $7,800 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 1.59 |
| 9 | Harrison Butker | KC | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 1.61 |
| 10 | AJ Barner | SEA | TE | $4,600 | $6,900 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 1.60 |
| 11 | Rashid Shaheed | SEA | WR | $6,200 | $9,300 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 1.11 |
| 12 | Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | $5,600 | $8,400 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 1.22 |
| 13 | Seahawks | SEA | DST | $4,200 | $6,300 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 1.60 |
| 14 | Jalen Royals | KC | WR | $3,400 | $5,100 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 1.81 |
| 15 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | $7,400 | $11,100 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 0.81 |
| 16 | Chiefs | KC | DST | $3,800 | $5,700 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 1.42 |
| 17 | Noah Gray | KC | TE | $4,000 | $6,000 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 1.31 |
| 18 | George Holani | SEA | RB | $4,400 | $6,600 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 1.10 |
| 19 | Andrew Armstrong | KC | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.47 |
| 20 | Emmett Johnson | KC | RB | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 0.97 |
| 21 | Tory Horton | SEA | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 1.00 |
| 22 | Cyrus Allen | KC | WR | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.76 |
| 23 | Eric Saubert | SEA | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.92 |
| 24 | Brashard Smith | KC | RB | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.99 |
| 25 | Velus Jones Jr. | SEA | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.71 |
| 26 | Justin Watson | KC | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.76 |
| 27 | Jake Briningstool | KC | TE | $600 | $900 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.20 |
| 28 | Nick Kallerup | SEA | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 2.05 |
| 29 | Brady Russell | SEA | RB | $400 | $600 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.95 |
| 30 | Nikko Remigio | KC | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.33 |
| 31 | Ben VanSumeren | KC | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.95 |
Chiefs vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Chiefs vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown?
Kenneth Walker III holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 27.0%, ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba (22.2%) and Patrick Mahomes (11.4%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Chiefs vs Seahawks?
Build around Jaxon Smith-Njigba at captain with Sam Darnold, Xavier Worthy and Emanuel Wilson at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (16 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $9,800 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Chiefs vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown?
Kenneth Walker III leads the SPAGS model at 21.8 DraftKings points for $12,000 at FLEX, or 32.6 points at captain for $18,000.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Chiefs vs Seahawks Showdown?
Kenneth Walker III is the most expensive player at $12,000 FLEX and $18,000 at captain. All 31 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Chiefs vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Jalen Royals (6.2 points at $3,400), Harrison Butker (7.8 points at $4,800) and AJ Barner (7.4 points at $4,600).
What is the Chiefs vs Seahawks spread and total?
The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in a game totaled at 42.5, with implied team totals of 22.75 for the Seahawks and 19.75 for the Chiefs.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
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