Patriots vs Bears DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Patriots vs Bears DraftKings Showdown?
Drake Maye has the highest SPAGS projection in the Patriots at Bears DraftKings Showdown: 20.1 points at $10,600 FLEX, 30.2 at captain for $15,900. Across 10,000 simulations Maye holds 68% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Maye is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 6.6 points at a $10,600 FLEX salary, in a game with a 50.5-point total.
Caleb Williams has the largest captain share: 16.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Williams at captain. The model has him running 4.6 times. Drake Maye is the next captain in line, at 16.8%. The model has him running 4.6 times.
Chicago is a 3-point favorite, and the implied totals are 26.75 for the Bears and 23.75 for the Patriots.
Behind Maye and Williams, the next projections are D'Andre Swift (16.9, $9,800), A.J. Brown (14.8, $9,000) and Luther Burden III (13.3, $8,400).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 20, 11:53 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Caleb Williams, CHI QB ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Caleb Williams holds 16.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $15,600 and the 19.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 29.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 4.6 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 19.8 points with a simulated floor of 6.6 and a ceiling of 40.1. He holds 68% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 16.9% as the captain and 50.7% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Drake Maye, NE QB ($10,600 FLEX / $15,900 CPT)
Drake Maye holds 16.8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,900 and the 20.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 30.2 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 4.6 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Maye averaged 20.1 points with a simulated floor of 6.6 and a ceiling of 40.8. He holds 68% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 16.8% as the captain and 51.7% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: D'Andre Swift, CHI RB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
D'Andre Swift holds 13.6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,700 and the 16.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 25.3 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 18.5 carries and 3.0 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Swift averaged 16.8 points with a simulated floor of 6.1 and a ceiling of 34.5. He holds 54% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 13.6% as the captain and 40.2% in a FLEX spot.
Patriots vs Bears DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,053 lineups in Chris Spags' TNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (14 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | $15,600 | 29.7 |
| FLEX | Drake Maye | NE | QB | $10,600 | 20.1 |
| FLEX | Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | $6,400 | 11.7 |
| FLEX | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | $7,400 | 10.6 |
| Core total | $40,000 | 72.1 |
That leaves $10,000 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Luther Burden III at $12,600, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 13 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 5,053 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Patriots vs Bears
A.J. Brown, NE WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
A.J. Brown carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 14.8 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model gives him 6.7 targets on 22.1 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Brown averaged 14.7 points with a simulated floor of 2.5 and a ceiling of 40.2. He holds 41% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.2% as the captain and 28.6% in a FLEX spot.
Luther Burden III, CHI WR ($8,400 FLEX / $12,600 CPT)
Luther Burden III carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 13.3 DraftKings points for an $8,400 FLEX salary ($12,600 at captain). The model gives him 6.2 targets on 20.4 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Burden averaged 13.2 points with a simulated floor of 1.3 and a ceiling of 39.3. He holds 36% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.5% as the captain and 24.5% in a FLEX spot.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE RB ($7,800 FLEX / $11,700 CPT)
Rhamondre Stevenson carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 13.2 DraftKings points for a $7,800 FLEX salary ($11,700 at captain). The model gives him 9.7 carries and 3.3 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Stevenson averaged 13.3 points with a simulated floor of 4.0 and a ceiling of 28.1. He holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.7% as the captain and 36.2% in a FLEX spot.
Colston Loveland, CHI TE ($6,400 FLEX / $9,600 CPT)
Colston Loveland carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.7 DraftKings points for a $6,400 FLEX salary ($9,600 at captain). The model gives him 4.8 targets on 22.1 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Loveland averaged 11.8 points with a simulated floor of 3.2 and a ceiling of 27.3. He holds 38% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.0% as the captain and 32.1% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Kalif Raymond, CHI WR ($3,400 FLEX / $5,100 CPT)
Kalif Raymond projects for 7.6 DraftKings points at a $3,400 FLEX salary, 2.24 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.1 targets on 18.2 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Raymond averaged 7.6 points with a simulated floor of 0.6 and a ceiling of 20.1. He holds 26% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.7% as the captain and 23.8% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Cairo Santos, CHI K ($5,000 FLEX / $7,500 CPT)
Cairo Santos projects for 9.0 DraftKings points at a $5,000 FLEX salary, 1.80 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Santos averaged 9.0 points with a simulated floor of 4.0 and a ceiling of 17.0. He holds 27% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.7% as the captain and 26.8% in a FLEX spot.
Patriots vs Bears Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | $10,600 | $15,900 | 20.1 | 68% | 16.8% |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 19.8 | 68% | 16.9% |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 16.9 | 54% | 13.6% |
| A.J. Brown | NE | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 14.8 | 41% | 12.2% |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | $8,400 | $12,600 | 13.3 | 36% | 11.5% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | $7,800 | $11,700 | 13.2 | 44% | 7.7% |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | $6,400 | $9,600 | 11.7 | 38% | 6.0% |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | $7,400 | $11,100 | 10.6 | 29% | 2.4% |
Patriots vs Bears DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Patriots at Bears DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | NE | QB | $10,600 | $15,900 | 20.1 | 30.2 | 1.90 |
| 2 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 19.8 | 29.7 | 1.90 |
| 3 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 16.9 | 25.3 | 1.72 |
| 4 | A.J. Brown | NE | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 14.8 | 22.1 | 1.64 |
| 5 | Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | $8,400 | $12,600 | 13.3 | 20.0 | 1.59 |
| 6 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | $7,800 | $11,700 | 13.2 | 19.9 | 1.70 |
| 7 | Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | $6,400 | $9,600 | 11.7 | 17.5 | 1.82 |
| 8 | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | $7,400 | $11,100 | 10.6 | 15.9 | 1.43 |
| 9 | Hunter Henry | NE | TE | $6,200 | $9,300 | 10.0 | 14.9 | 1.61 |
| 10 | DeMario Douglas | NE | WR | $6,600 | $9,900 | 9.7 | 14.5 | 1.47 |
| 11 | Cairo Santos | CHI | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 1.80 |
| 12 | Andy Borregales | NE | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 8.5 | 12.7 | 1.76 |
| 13 | Kalif Raymond | CHI | WR | $3,400 | $5,100 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 2.24 |
| 14 | Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | $4,400 | $6,600 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 1.65 |
| 15 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | $5,800 | $8,700 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 1.23 |
| 16 | Bears | CHI | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 1.43 |
| 17 | Patriots | NE | DST | $3,800 | $5,700 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 1.07 |
| 18 | Efton Chism III | NE | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 1.14 |
| 19 | Eli Raridon | NE | TE | $2,200 | $3,300 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 1.39 |
| 20 | Kyle Williams | NE | WR | $1,800 | $2,700 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 1.69 |
| 21 | Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.13 |
| 22 | Corey Kiner | NE | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.30 |
| 23 | Zavion Thomas | CHI | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.16 |
| 24 | Sam Roush | CHI | TE | $600 | $900 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.75 |
| 25 | Jahdae Walker | CHI | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.82 |
| 26 | Cameron Latu | NE | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.30 |
Patriots vs Bears DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Patriots vs Bears DraftKings Showdown?
Caleb Williams holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 16.9%, ahead of Drake Maye (16.8%) and D'Andre Swift (13.6%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Patriots vs Bears?
Build around Caleb Williams at captain with Drake Maye, Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (14 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $10,000 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Patriots vs Bears DraftKings Showdown?
Drake Maye leads the SPAGS model at 20.1 DraftKings points for $10,600 at FLEX, or 30.2 points at captain for $15,900.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Patriots vs Bears Showdown?
Drake Maye is the most expensive player at $10,600 FLEX and $15,900 at captain. All 26 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Patriots vs Bears DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Kalif Raymond (7.6 points at $3,400), Cairo Santos (9.0 points at $5,000) and Andy Borregales (8.5 points at $4,800).
What is the Patriots vs Bears spread and total?
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in a game totaled at 50.5, with implied team totals of 26.75 for the Bears and 23.75 for the Patriots.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
More NFL DFS: Week 7 DraftKings main slate picks and projections.
Use READER for 25% off
Want the whole slate? VIP unlocks SPAGS projections and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building.
25% off your first payment. First-time customers only. Enter READER in Stripe checkout.
JOIN THE SQUAD →SEE HOW IT WORKS →New to Polymarket US? Polymarket promo code SPLASH is for first-time Polymarket US users.
#PolymarketPartner · Paid partnership with Polymarket. 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/latest/rulebook for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.