Bears vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown Picks: Monday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Bears vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the highest SPAGS projection in the Bears at Seahawks DraftKings Showdown: 21.6 points at $12,000 FLEX, 32.4 at captain for $18,000. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba holds 66% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Smith-Njigba is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 8.3 points at a $12,000 FLEX salary, in a game with a 46.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 22.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Smith-Njigba at captain. Caleb Williams is the next captain in line, at 13.5%. The model has him running 4.2 times.
Seattle is a 3-point favorite, and the implied totals are 24.75 for the Seahawks and 21.75 for the Bears.
Behind Smith-Njigba and Williams, the next projections are Sam Darnold (16.6, $9,400), Emanuel Wilson (14.4, $7,400) and D'Andre Swift (12.3, $9,800).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 30, 11:25 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
MNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA WR ($12,000 FLEX / $18,000 CPT)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba holds 22.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $18,000 and the 21.6-point SPAGS model projection becomes 32.4 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 9.0 targets on 25.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Smith-Njigba averaged 21.6 points with a simulated floor of 8.3 and a ceiling of 45.7. He holds 66% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 22.9% as the captain and 43.2% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Caleb Williams, CHI QB ($10,200 FLEX / $15,300 CPT)
Caleb Williams holds 13.5% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,300 and the 18.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 27.1 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 4.2 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 18.0 points with a simulated floor of 6.2 and a ceiling of 37.2. He holds 61% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 13.5% as the captain and 47.7% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Luther Burden III, CHI WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Luther Burden III holds 10.8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $13,500 and the 12.2-point SPAGS model projection becomes 18.3 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 6.6 targets on 21.9 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Burden averaged 12.2 points with a simulated floor of 0.4 and a ceiling of 39.0. He holds 32% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.8% as the captain and 21.0% in a FLEX spot.
Bears vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 4,578 lineups in Chris Spags' MNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (18 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | $11,100 | 21.6 |
| FLEX | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | $12,000 | 21.6 |
| FLEX | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | $9,400 | 16.6 |
| FLEX | Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | $7,800 | 11.3 |
| Core total | $40,300 | 71.2 |
That leaves $9,700 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: AJ Barner at $6,900, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 14 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 4,578 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Bears vs Seahawks
Sam Darnold, SEA QB ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Sam Darnold carries the 3rd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.6 DraftKings points for a $9,400 FLEX salary ($14,100 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Darnold averaged 16.5 points with a simulated floor of 5.6 and a ceiling of 33.3. He holds 56% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.0% as the captain and 46.4% in a FLEX spot.
Emanuel Wilson, SEA RB ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
Emanuel Wilson carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 14.4 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 19.0 carries and 1.2 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Wilson averaged 14.4 points with a simulated floor of 5.2 and a ceiling of 28.9. He holds 50% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.1% as the captain and 41.1% in a FLEX spot.
D'Andre Swift, CHI RB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
D'Andre Swift carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.3 DraftKings points for a $9,800 FLEX salary ($14,700 at captain). The model gives him 11.2 carries and 2.9 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Swift averaged 12.2 points with a simulated floor of 2.2 and a ceiling of 31.3. He holds 32% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.6% as the captain and 23.7% in a FLEX spot.
Colston Loveland, CHI TE ($7,800 FLEX / $11,700 CPT)
Colston Loveland carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.3 DraftKings points for a $7,800 FLEX salary ($11,700 at captain). The model gives him 6.1 targets on 23.7 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Loveland averaged 11.3 points with a simulated floor of 2.9 and a ceiling of 26.8. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.5% as the captain and 27.6% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: AJ Barner, SEA TE ($4,600 FLEX / $6,900 CPT)
AJ Barner projects for 8.9 DraftKings points at a $4,600 FLEX salary, 1.93 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.2 targets on 22.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Barner averaged 8.9 points with a simulated floor of 1.1 and a ceiling of 25.6. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.0% as the captain and 27.9% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Kalif Raymond, CHI WR ($3,600 FLEX / $5,400 CPT)
Kalif Raymond projects for 6.0 DraftKings points at a $3,600 FLEX salary, 1.65 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.4 targets on 20.3 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Raymond averaged 5.9 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 15.1. He holds 19% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.9% as the captain and 18.4% in a FLEX spot.
Bears vs Seahawks Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | $12,000 | $18,000 | 21.6 | 66% | 22.9% |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | $10,200 | $15,300 | 18.1 | 61% | 13.5% |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 16.6 | 56% | 10.0% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | $7,400 | $11,100 | 14.4 | 50% | 9.1% |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 12.3 | 32% | 8.6% |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 12.2 | 32% | 10.8% |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | $7,800 | $11,700 | 11.3 | 33% | 5.5% |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | $7,600 | $11,400 | 9.7 | 25% | 2.4% |
Bears vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Bears at Seahawks DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | $12,000 | $18,000 | 21.6 | 32.4 | 1.80 |
| 2 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | $10,200 | $15,300 | 18.1 | 27.1 | 1.77 |
| 3 | Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | $9,400 | $14,100 | 16.6 | 24.9 | 1.77 |
| 4 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | $7,400 | $11,100 | 14.4 | 21.6 | 1.95 |
| 5 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 12.3 | 18.4 | 1.25 |
| 6 | Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 12.2 | 18.3 | 1.35 |
| 7 | Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | $7,800 | $11,700 | 11.3 | 17.0 | 1.46 |
| 8 | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | $7,600 | $11,400 | 9.7 | 14.5 | 1.28 |
| 9 | Kyle Monangai | CHI | RB | $6,800 | $10,200 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 1.31 |
| 10 | AJ Barner | SEA | TE | $4,600 | $6,900 | 8.9 | 13.3 | 1.93 |
| 11 | Jason Myers | SEA | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 8.6 | 12.9 | 1.59 |
| 12 | Cairo Santos | CHI | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 1.61 |
| 13 | Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | $4,800 | $7,200 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 1.41 |
| 14 | Rashid Shaheed | SEA | WR | $5,200 | $7,800 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 1.28 |
| 15 | Seahawks | SEA | DST | $4,200 | $6,300 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 1.43 |
| 16 | Kalif Raymond | CHI | WR | $3,600 | $5,400 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 1.65 |
| 17 | Bears | CHI | DST | $3,800 | $5,700 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 1.44 |
| 18 | George Holani | SEA | RB | $3,000 | $4,500 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 1.17 |
| 19 | Tory Horton | SEA | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 0.96 |
| 20 | Sam Roush | CHI | TE | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 1.80 |
| 21 | Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.51 |
| 22 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.22 |
| 23 | Eric Saubert | SEA | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.82 |
| 24 | Zavion Thomas | CHI | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.51 |
| 25 | Brady Russell | SEA | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.60 |
| 26 | Jahdae Walker | CHI | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.82 |
| 27 | Stephen Carlson | CHI | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.45 |
| 28 | Nick Kallerup | SEA | TE | $600 | $900 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.35 |
| 29 | Qadir Ismail | CHI | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.60 |
Bears vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Bears vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 22.9%, ahead of Caleb Williams (13.5%) and Luther Burden III (10.8%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Bears vs Seahawks?
Build around Emanuel Wilson at captain with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold and Colston Loveland at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (18 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $9,700 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Bears vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the SPAGS model at 21.6 DraftKings points for $12,000 at FLEX, or 32.4 points at captain for $18,000.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Bears vs Seahawks Showdown?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most expensive player at $12,000 FLEX and $18,000 at captain. All 29 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Bears vs Seahawks DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to AJ Barner (8.9 points at $4,600), Kalif Raymond (6.0 points at $3,600) and Cairo Santos (8.1 points at $5,000).
What is the Bears vs Seahawks spread and total?
The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in a game totaled at 46.5, with implied team totals of 24.75 for the Seahawks and 21.75 for the Bears.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
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