NFL DFS Projections Week 8: DraftKings Picks, Values and Sim Plays

DraftKings main slate · Sunday, November 1 · 11 games · By Chris Spags · Published · Numbers as of

Who are the top DraftKings NFL DFS plays in Week 8?

Jahmyr Gibbs carries the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 8 DraftKings main slate: 27.8 DraftKings points at $9,500. He holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit across 10,000 simulations. Chargers holds the largest share at 37% for $2,000.

Behind Gibbs, the model's next four projections are Puka Nacua (23.3, $8,600), Kenneth Walker III (22.9, $8,800), Josh Allen (22.5, $7,700) and Kyren Williams (21.2, $7,500). Jahmyr Gibbs returns the most per dollar of that group at 2.92 projected points per $1,000. Puka Nacua leads the wide receivers at 23.3 for $8,600, Josh Allen leads the quarterbacks at 22.5 for $7,700, and Trey McBride leads the tight ends at 19.7 for $7,400.

The 11-game slate runs from a 54.5-point total in ARI at DAL down to 39.5 in CLE at PIT. Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 27, 4:33 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup credit comes from 10,000 simulations of the contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th.

Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.

Top 5 SPAGS model projections for Week 8 (DraftKings)

PlayerTeamPosSalarySPAGS model proj
Jahmyr GibbsDETRB$9,50027.8
Puka NacuaLARWR$8,60023.3
Kenneth Walker IIIKCRB$8,80022.9
Josh AllenBUFQB$7,70022.5
Kyren WilliamsLARRB$7,50021.2

Quarterbacks: Week 8 DraftKings projections

Josh Allen, BUF vs BAL ($7,700)

Josh Allen carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 22.5 DraftKings points at $7,700, the 4th-highest on the entire main slate. That is 1.7 points clear of Dak Prescott. The model includes 6.7 rushing attempts. The salary works out to 2.92 projected points per $1,000, 17th of 21 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Allen averaged 22.5 points with a simulated floor of 8.4 and a ceiling of 40.5, and he holds 8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite at home against Baltimore, with an implied team total of 28.5 in a game totaled at 53.5.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs ARI ($6,300)

Dak Prescott projects 2nd at the position with 20.8 DraftKings points at $6,300. The salary works out to 3.29 projected points per $1,000, 6th of 21 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Prescott averaged 20.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.9 and a ceiling of 38.3, and he holds 15% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Dallas is a 6-point favorite at home against Arizona, with an implied team total of 30.25 in a game totaled at 54.5.

Value: Malik Willis, MIA vs NE ($4,900)

Malik Willis projects for 17.1 DraftKings points at $4,900, which works out to 3.50 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 21 quarterbacks the model projects for 15 or more points. The model includes 4.9 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Willis averaged 17.2 points with a simulated floor of 6.8 and a ceiling of 31.4, and he holds 3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Miami is a 7.5-point underdog at home against New England, with an implied team total of 18.5 in a game totaled at 44.5.

Running backs: Week 8 DraftKings projections

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs MIN ($9,500)

Jahmyr Gibbs carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 27.8 DraftKings points at $9,500, the highest on the entire main slate. That is 4.8 points clear of Kenneth Walker III. The model gives him 22.8 carries and 5.6 targets. The salary works out to 2.92 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 22 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Gibbs averaged 27.6 points with a simulated floor of 15.2 and a ceiling of 45.0, and he holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Detroit is a 3-point favorite at home against Minnesota, with an implied team total of 24.75 in a game totaled at 46.5.

Kenneth Walker III, KC at DEN ($8,800)

Kenneth Walker III projects 2nd at the position with 22.9 DraftKings points at $8,800, 3rd on the main slate overall. The model gives him 19.4 carries and 4.1 targets. The salary works out to 2.61 projected points per $1,000, 7th of 22 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Walker averaged 22.8 points with a simulated floor of 10.9 and a ceiling of 41.2, and he holds 10% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Kansas City is a 1.5-point favorite on the road against Denver, with an implied team total of 21.5 in a game totaled at 41.5.

Kyren Williams, LAR vs LAC ($7,500)

Kyren Williams projects 3rd at the position with 21.2 DraftKings points at $7,500, 5th on the main slate overall. The model gives him 15.5 carries and 4.9 targets. The salary works out to 2.83 projected points per $1,000, 4th of 22 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 21.2 points with a simulated floor of 9.4 and a ceiling of 38.8, and he holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. The Rams are a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 25.5 in a game totaled at 44.5.

Value: Chase Brown, CIN vs TEN ($6,300)

Chase Brown projects for 18.3 DraftKings points at $6,300, which works out to 2.91 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 22 running backs the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 16.4 carries and 4.8 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Brown averaged 18.2 points with a simulated floor of 8.0 and a ceiling of 33.0, and he holds 28% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Cincinnati is a 10-point favorite at home against Tennessee, with an implied team total of 28.25 in a game totaled at 46.5.

Wide receivers: Week 8 DraftKings projections

Puka Nacua, LAR vs LAC ($8,600)

Puka Nacua carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 23.3 DraftKings points at $8,600, the 2nd-highest on the entire main slate. That is 4.4 points clear of CeeDee Lamb. The model gives him 10.6 targets on 30.2 routes. The salary works out to 2.70 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 28 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Nacua averaged 23.4 points with a simulated floor of 9.6 and a ceiling of 49.2, and he holds 27% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. The Rams are a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 25.5 in a game totaled at 44.5.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL vs ARI ($8,100)

CeeDee Lamb projects 2nd at the position with 18.8 DraftKings points at $8,100. The model gives him 9.5 targets on 35.2 routes. The salary works out to 2.32 projected points per $1,000, 8th of 28 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Lamb averaged 18.9 points with a simulated floor of 5.7 and a ceiling of 43.6, and he holds 22% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Dallas is a 6-point favorite at home against Arizona, with an implied team total of 30.25 in a game totaled at 54.5.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs MIN ($8,000)

Amon-Ra St. Brown projects 3rd at the position with 17.8 DraftKings points at $8,000. The model gives him 9.8 targets on 32.8 routes. The salary works out to 2.23 projected points per $1,000, 10th of 28 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Brown averaged 17.8 points with a simulated floor of 5.0 and a ceiling of 42.2, and he holds 14% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Detroit is a 3-point favorite at home against Minnesota, with an implied team total of 24.75 in a game totaled at 46.5.

Value: Wan'Dale Robinson, TEN at CIN ($4,200)

Wan'Dale Robinson projects for 10.6 DraftKings points at $4,200, which works out to 2.52 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 28 wide receivers the model projects for 9 or more points. The model gives him 6.9 targets on 29.3 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Robinson averaged 10.7 points with a simulated floor of 2.5 and a ceiling of 25.8, and he holds 8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Tennessee is a 10-point underdog on the road against Cincinnati, with an implied team total of 18.25 in a game totaled at 46.5.

Tight ends: Week 8 DraftKings projections

Trey McBride, ARI at DAL ($7,400)

Trey McBride carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 19.7 DraftKings points at $7,400. That is 5.8 points clear of Brock Bowers. The model gives him 10.9 targets on 39.7 routes. The salary works out to 2.67 projected points per $1,000, 1st of 17 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations McBride averaged 19.8 points with a simulated floor of 5.0 and a ceiling of 48.3, and he holds 20% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Arizona is a 6-point underdog on the road against Dallas, with an implied team total of 24.25 in a game totaled at 54.5.

Brock Bowers, LV at NYJ ($7,600)

Brock Bowers projects 2nd at the position with 14.0 DraftKings points at $7,600. The model gives him 7.6 targets on 32.0 routes. The salary works out to 1.84 projected points per $1,000, 16th of 17 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Bowers averaged 13.9 points with a simulated floor of 2.2 and a ceiling of 36.9, and he holds 3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Las Vegas is a 1.5-point underdog on the road against the Jets, with an implied team total of 22 in a game totaled at 45.5.

Value: Greg Dulcich, MIA vs NE ($3,200)

Greg Dulcich projects for 8.2 DraftKings points at $3,200, which works out to 2.57 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 17 tight ends the model projects for 7 or more points. The model gives him 4.2 targets on 17.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Dulcich averaged 8.3 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 33.1, and he holds 7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Miami is a 7.5-point underdog at home against New England, with an implied team total of 18.5 in a game totaled at 44.5.

Defenses: Week 8 DraftKings projections

Rams, LAR vs LAC ($3,500)

Rams carries the highest SPAGS model projection at the position, 7.4 DraftKings points at $3,500. That is 0.1 points clear of Steelers. The salary works out to 2.13 projected points per $1,000, 2nd of 5 at the position. Across 10,000 simulations Rams averaged 7.7 points with a simulated floor of 0.0 and a ceiling of 16.3, and it holds 3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. The Rams are a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Chargers, with an implied team total of 25.5 in a game totaled at 44.5.

Value: Steelers, PIT vs CLE ($3,300)

Steelers projects for 7.3 DraftKings points at $3,300, which works out to 2.21 points per $1,000 of salary. That is the best rate of any player priced in the cheaper half of the 5 defenses the model projects for 6 or more points. Across 10,000 simulations Steelers averaged 7.4 points with a simulated floor of -0.3 and a ceiling of 15.7, and it holds 3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite at home against Cleveland, with an implied team total of 21.5 in a game totaled at 39.5.

Current boards on their own pages: QB rankings · RB rankings · WR rankings · TE rankings · DST rankings · Value plays · Player pages

The sim's favorite plays

The main slate was simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field. These five players hold the most winning-lineup credit.

PlayerTeamPosSalaryWinning-lineup credit
ChargersLACDST$2,00037%
Javonte WilliamsDALRB$7,30037%
Kyren WilliamsLARRB$7,50028%
Chase BrownCINRB$6,30028%
Jahmyr GibbsDETRB$9,50028%

Week 8 NFL DFS stack to build around (DraftKings)

Of the quarterback stacks in Chris Spags' Week 8 main-slate pool with at least 50 simulated lineups, this one had the strongest simulated return, weighted by how many lineups back it: the 176 lineups built on it cashed 30.2% of the time across 10,000 simulations.

RolePlayerTeamPosSalarySPAGS proj
QBMalik WillisMIAQB$4,90017.1
StackMalik WashingtonMIAWR$4,40010.4
Stack total$9,30027.5

That leaves $40,700 of the $50,000 cap for the other 7 roster spots.

Every Top Stack ranked by simulated return is in the Splash Play NFL tool for members, and complete lineups with one-click DraftKings export come with Apex. See plans →

Week 8 game totals, spreads and implied points

ARI at DAL carries the highest total on the slate at 54.5. Cincinnati is the biggest favorite, laying 10 against Tennessee. The three highest implied team totals belong to DAL (30.25), BUF (28.5) and CIN (28.25). Lines are as of October 27, 4:33 PM ET and move before lock.

GameTotalFavoriteImplied points
ARI @ DAL54.5DAL -6ARI 24.25 · DAL 30.25
BAL @ BUF53.5BUF -3.5BAL 25 · BUF 28.5
TEN @ CIN46.5CIN -10TEN 18.25 · CIN 28.25
MIN @ DET46.5DET -3MIN 21.75 · DET 24.75
IND @ JAX46.5JAX -7.5IND 19.5 · JAX 27
ATL @ TB46.5TB -2.5ATL 22 · TB 24.5
LV @ NYJ45.5NYJ -1.5LV 22 · NYJ 23.5
LAC @ LAR44.5LAR -6.5LAC 19 · LAR 25.5
NE @ MIA44.5NE -7.5NE 26 · MIA 18.5
KC @ DEN41.5KC -1.5KC 21.5 · DEN 20
CLE @ PIT39.5PIT -3.5CLE 18 · PIT 21.5

Full Week 8 NFL DFS projections by position (DraftKings)

Every SPAGS model projection at each position for the Week 8 DraftKings main slate, ranked by projected points, from the October 27, 4:33 PM ET run.

Week 8 quarterback projections

#PlayerGameSalarySPAGS projPts/$1K
1Josh AllenBUF vs BAL$7,70022.52.92
2Dak PrescottDAL vs ARI$6,30020.83.29
3Drake MayeNE at MIA$6,50020.63.17
4Joe BurrowCIN vs TEN$7,00020.32.90
5Jacoby BrissettARI at DAL$5,70019.73.46
6Trevor LawrenceJAX vs IND$6,20019.43.14
7Lamar JacksonBAL at BUF$6,80019.42.85
8Matthew StaffordLAR vs LAC$6,40018.12.83
9Jared GoffDET vs MIN$6,60018.02.73
10Patrick MahomesKC at DEN$6,00017.82.97
11Baker MayfieldTB vs ATL$5,20017.33.32
12Malik WillisMIA vs NE$4,90017.13.50
13Kyler MurrayMIN at DET$5,60017.13.05
14Justin HerbertLAC at LAR$5,00017.13.41
15Deshaun WatsonCLE at PIT$5,40016.93.14
16Kirk CousinsLV at NYJ$5,50016.93.08

Week 8 running back projections

#PlayerGameSalarySPAGS projPts/$1K
1Jahmyr GibbsDET vs MIN$9,50027.82.92
2Kenneth Walker IIIKC at DEN$8,80022.92.61
3Kyren WilliamsLAR vs LAC$7,50021.22.83
4Javonte WilliamsDAL vs ARI$7,30020.82.85
5Bijan RobinsonATL at TB$8,50019.72.32
6James Cook IIIBUF vs BAL$7,90018.72.37
7Chase BrownCIN vs TEN$6,30018.32.91
8Bucky IrvingTB vs ATL$6,40017.82.77
9Jonathan TaylorIND at JAX$7,80017.62.25
10Jaylen WarrenPIT vs CLE$6,60016.42.49
11Ashton JeantyLV at NYJ$6,70016.32.43
12Derrick HenryBAL at BUF$7,20016.02.22
13Bhayshul TutenJAX vs IND$5,90015.92.70
14Rhamondre StevensonNE at MIA$5,60012.72.27
15Breece HallNYJ vs LV$6,00011.11.85
16Braelon AllenNYJ vs LV$6,10010.81.76
17Omarion HamptonLAC at LAR$5,10010.01.96
18Aaron Jones Sr.MIN at DET$6,2009.91.60
19Ollie Gordon IIMIA vs NE$5,7009.81.71
20Tony PollardTEN at CIN$5,8009.71.68
21Blake CorumLAR vs LAC$5,0009.11.83
22RJ HarveyDEN vs KC$5,2009.11.74
23Jeremiyah LoveARI at DAL$5,4008.81.64
24Kenny GainwellTB vs ATL$4,4008.51.93
25TreVeyon HendersonNE at MIA$4,6008.51.84
26Rico DowdlePIT vs CLE$5,1008.31.63
27Quinshon JudkinsCLE at PIT$5,5008.01.45
28Jordan MasonMIN at DET$5,7008.01.40
29J.K. DobbinsDEN vs KC$5,3008.01.50
30Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX vs IND$4,4006.91.57
31Tyler AllgeierARI at DAL$4,9006.91.40
32Samaje PerineCIN vs TEN$4,8006.81.41

Week 8 wide receiver projections

#PlayerGameSalarySPAGS projPts/$1K
1Puka NacuaLAR vs LAC$8,60023.32.70
2CeeDee LambDAL vs ARI$8,10018.82.32
3Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs MIN$8,00017.82.23
4Michael WilsonARI at DAL$6,20015.42.49
5Drake LondonATL at TB$7,00015.22.17
6Justin JeffersonMIN at DET$7,10015.02.12
7Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs TEN$7,70014.41.87
8Tee HigginsCIN vs TEN$6,70013.82.07
9George PickensDAL vs ARI$6,60013.72.07
10DK MetcalfPIT vs CLE$5,40012.92.40
11A.J. BrownNE at MIA$5,90012.42.11
12Carnell TateTEN at CIN$5,20012.42.39
13Jaylen WaddleDEN vs KC$5,40011.72.16
14Parker WashingtonJAX vs IND$6,50011.61.78
15Zay FlowersBAL at BUF$7,20011.61.60
16Jameson WilliamsDET vs MIN$6,00011.51.92
17Emeka EgbukaTB vs ATL$5,80011.21.92
18Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN at CIN$4,20010.62.52
19KC Concepcion Jr.CLE at PIT$4,70010.62.25
20Malik WashingtonMIA vs NE$4,40010.42.36
21Keenan AllenIND at JAX$4,50010.02.23
22Josh DownsIND at JAX$5,3009.71.83
23Denzel BostonCLE at PIT$5,2009.61.84
24Tre TuckerLV at NYJ$5,5009.61.74
25Kendrick BourneARI at DAL$3,9009.42.41
26Ryan FlournoyDAL vs ARI$4,6009.42.04
27Jordan AddisonMIN at DET$5,1009.41.84
28Courtland SuttonDEN vs KC$4,7009.11.93
29DeMario DouglasNE at MIA$4,4008.82.00
30Germie BernardPIT vs CLE$4,9008.61.76
31Jakobi MeyersJAX vs IND$4,5008.61.91
32Rashee RiceKC at DEN$6,4008.51.33
33Xavier WorthyKC at DEN$4,9008.41.71
34Garrett WilsonNYJ vs LV$6,3008.21.30
35Chris Godwin Jr.TB vs ATL$4,8008.11.68
36Caleb DouglasMIA vs NE$4,1008.01.94
37Khalil ShakirBUF vs BAL$5,6007.61.36
38DJ MooreBUF vs BAL$5,7006.31.11
39KeAndre Lambert-SmithLAC at LAR$3,1006.32.04
40Quentin JohnstonLAC at LAR$4,6006.11.33

Week 8 tight end projections

#PlayerGameSalarySPAGS projPts/$1K
1Trey McBrideARI at DAL$7,40019.72.67
2Brock BowersLV at NYJ$7,60014.01.84
3Sam LaPortaDET vs MIN$5,10012.72.50
4T.J. HockensonMIN at DET$4,60010.42.27
5Travis KelceKC at DEN$5,00010.42.08
6Dalton KincaidBUF vs BAL$5,30010.11.91
7Harold Fannin Jr.CLE at PIT$4,20010.02.39
8Brenton StrangeJAX vs IND$4,0009.52.38
9Tyler WarrenIND at JAX$4,9009.21.87
10Mark AndrewsBAL at BUF$3,4008.62.53
11Pat FreiermuthPIT vs CLE$3,9008.32.12
12Greg DulcichMIA vs NE$3,2008.22.57
13Hunter HenryNE at MIA$4,3008.21.91
14Tyler HigbeeLAR vs LAC$3,8007.72.02
15Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL at TB$4,5007.71.70
16Cade OttonTB vs ATL$3,4007.52.20

Week 8 defense projections

#PlayerGameSalarySPAGS projPts/$1K
1RamsLAR vs LAC$3,5007.42.13
2SteelersPIT vs CLE$3,3007.32.21
3BengalsCIN vs TEN$3,8007.21.89
4JaguarsJAX vs IND$3,7007.01.89
5PatriotsNE at MIA$3,6006.51.81
6BroncosDEN vs KC$2,3006.02.59
7BrownsCLE at PIT$2,6006.02.29
8ChiefsKC at DEN$3,4005.91.74
9LionsDET vs MIN$2,7005.92.17
10RaidersLV at NYJ$2,5005.82.32
11BuccaneersTB vs ATL$2,9005.51.91
12CowboysDAL vs ARI$3,2005.41.70

Floors, ceilings, simulated win rates, ownership and one-click DraftKings and FanDuel exports for every player are in the Splash Play NFL tool. Open the NFL DFS tool →

NFL DFS Week 8 projections FAQ

Who has the highest NFL DFS projection for Week 8?

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB) has the highest SPAGS model projection on the Week 8 DraftKings main slate at 27.8 points for $9,500, as of October 27, 4:33 PM ET.

Who is the top quarterback projection for Week 8 on DraftKings?

Josh Allen leads the Week 8 quarterbacks at 22.5 projected DraftKings points for $7,700, vs BAL.

What is the best NFL DFS stack for Week 8?

Build around Malik Willis with Malik Washington. Among quarterback stacks with at least 50 lineups in Chris Spags' simulated Week 8 pool, it had the strongest simulated return, weighted by how many lineups back it, cashing 30.2% of the time. The two players cost $9,300.

What is the best NFL DFS value play for Week 8?

Among players projected for at least 10 points, Malik Willis (QB, $4,900) returns the most projected points per $1,000 of salary at 3.50, projected for 17.1.

Which game has the highest total in NFL Week 8?

ARI at DAL has the highest total on the Week 8 DraftKings main slate at 54.5 points, as of October 27, 4:33 PM ET. Lines move before lock.

Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?

Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →

How are the SPAGS NFL DFS projections made?

SPAGS projections come from the Splash Play NFL model, built by Chris Spags from player workload, efficiency and game environment. The slate is then simulated 10,000 times against a modeled DraftKings field to measure winning-lineup credit.

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