Eagles vs Commanders DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Eagles vs Commanders DraftKings Showdown?
Jayden Daniels has the highest SPAGS projection in the Eagles at Commanders DraftKings Showdown: 19.8 points at $10,400 FLEX, 29.7 at captain for $15,600. In a game totaled at 40.5, the model's favorite play is the quarterback who also runs. It has him carrying 6.6 times, and across 10,000 simulations he holds 93% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Daniels is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 7.3 points at a $10,400 FLEX salary.
He also has the largest captain share: 39.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Daniels at captain. Rachaad White is the next captain in line, at 12.7%. The model gives him 11.8 carries and 2.6 targets.
Washington is a 5.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 23 for the Commanders and 17.5 for the Eagles.
Behind Daniels and White, the next projections are Tanner McKee (12.6, $8,800), Dallas Goedert (11.8, $7,400) and Stefon Diggs (10.8, $9,000).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 30, 11:25 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Jayden Daniels, WAS QB ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Jayden Daniels holds 39.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $15,600 and the 19.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 29.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 6.6 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Daniels averaged 19.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.3 and a ceiling of 39.9. He holds 93% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 39.4% as the captain and 53.9% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Rachaad White, WAS RB ($8,000 FLEX / $12,000 CPT)
Rachaad White holds 12.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $12,000 and the 12.1-point SPAGS model projection becomes 18.2 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 11.8 carries and 2.6 targets. Across 10,000 simulations White averaged 12.0 points with a simulated floor of 3.1 and a ceiling of 26.9. He holds 51% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.7% as the captain and 38.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Dallas Goedert, PHI TE ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
Dallas Goedert holds 10.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $11,100 and the 11.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 17.7 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 7.2 targets on 20.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Goedert averaged 11.8 points with a simulated floor of 3.2 and a ceiling of 27.2. He holds 52% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.4% as the captain and 41.2% in a FLEX spot.
Eagles vs Commanders DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 1,708 lineups in Chris Spags' SNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (18 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 142,687-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | $11,100 | 17.7 |
| FLEX | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $10,400 | 19.8 |
| FLEX | Tanner McKee | PHI | QB | $8,800 | 12.6 |
| FLEX | Rachaad White | WAS | RB | $8,000 | 12.1 |
| Core total | $38,300 | 62.3 |
That leaves $11,700 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Ben Sinnott at $900, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 16 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 1,708 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Eagles vs Commanders
Tanner McKee, PHI QB ($8,800 FLEX / $13,200 CPT)
Tanner McKee carries the 2nd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 12.6 DraftKings points for an $8,800 FLEX salary ($13,200 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations McKee averaged 12.7 points with a simulated floor of 4.3 and a ceiling of 25.4. He holds 64% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.1% as the captain and 55.6% in a FLEX spot.
Stefon Diggs, WAS WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Stefon Diggs carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.8 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). The model gives him 6.2 targets on 22.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Diggs averaged 10.8 points with a simulated floor of 2.9 and a ceiling of 25.7. He holds 45% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.3% as the captain and 38.4% in a FLEX spot.
Makai Lemon, PHI WR ($7,000 FLEX / $10,500 CPT)
Makai Lemon carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.6 DraftKings points for a $7,000 FLEX salary ($10,500 at captain). The model gives him 7.8 targets on 32.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Lemon averaged 10.5 points with a simulated floor of 3.4 and a ceiling of 22.6. He holds 45% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.5% as the captain and 39.5% in a FLEX spot.
Chig Okonkwo, WAS TE ($6,400 FLEX / $9,600 CPT)
Chig Okonkwo carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.1 DraftKings points for a $6,400 FLEX salary ($9,600 at captain). The model gives him 4.0 targets on 20.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Okonkwo averaged 9.0 points with a simulated floor of 1.1 and a ceiling of 24.3. He holds 32% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.5% as the captain and 26.9% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Drew Stevens, WAS K ($4,600 FLEX / $6,900 CPT)
Drew Stevens projects for 8.3 DraftKings points at a $4,600 FLEX salary, 1.80 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Stevens averaged 8.2 points with a simulated floor of 3.0 and a ceiling of 16.0. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.8% as the captain and 29.6% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Commanders, WAS DST ($4,000 FLEX / $6,000 CPT)
Commanders projects for 6.6 DraftKings points at a $4,000 FLEX salary, 1.66 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Commanders averaged 6.7 points with a simulated floor of -0.6 and a ceiling of 15.7. It holds 26% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.3% as the captain and 24.3% in a FLEX spot.
Eagles vs Commanders Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 19.8 | 93% | 39.4% |
| Tanner McKee | PHI | QB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 12.6 | 64% | 8.1% |
| Rachaad White | WAS | RB | $8,000 | $12,000 | 12.1 | 51% | 12.7% |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.8 | 52% | 10.4% |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 10.8 | 45% | 6.3% |
| Makai Lemon | PHI | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 10.6 | 45% | 5.5% |
| Chig Okonkwo | WAS | TE | $6,400 | $9,600 | 9.1 | 32% | 5.5% |
| Antonio Williams | WAS | WR | $6,200 | $9,300 | 8.6 | 32% | 3.0% |
Eagles vs Commanders DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Eagles at Commanders DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 19.8 | 29.7 | 1.91 |
| 2 | Tanner McKee | PHI | QB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 12.6 | 18.9 | 1.43 |
| 3 | Rachaad White | WAS | RB | $8,000 | $12,000 | 12.1 | 18.2 | 1.51 |
| 4 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.8 | 17.7 | 1.60 |
| 5 | Stefon Diggs | WAS | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 10.8 | 16.2 | 1.20 |
| 6 | Makai Lemon | PHI | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 10.6 | 15.8 | 1.51 |
| 7 | Chig Okonkwo | WAS | TE | $6,400 | $9,600 | 9.1 | 13.6 | 1.42 |
| 8 | Antonio Williams | WAS | WR | $6,200 | $9,300 | 8.6 | 12.9 | 1.38 |
| 9 | Drew Stevens | WAS | K | $4,600 | $6,900 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 1.80 |
| 10 | Jake Elliott | PHI | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 1.46 |
| 11 | Commanders | WAS | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 1.66 |
| 12 | Darius Cooper | PHI | WR | $6,600 | $9,900 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 0.96 |
| 13 | Elijah Mitchell | PHI | RB | $6,800 | $10,200 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 0.89 |
| 14 | Hollywood Brown | PHI | WR | $4,800 | $7,200 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 1.24 |
| 15 | Treylon Burks | WAS | WR | $5,400 | $8,100 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 1.07 |
| 16 | Eagles | PHI | DST | $3,800 | $5,700 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 1.31 |
| 17 | Dyami Brown | WAS | WR | $3,400 | $5,100 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 1.30 |
| 18 | Jaydon Blue | PHI | RB | $5,800 | $8,700 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 0.74 |
| 19 | Jeremy McNichols | WAS | RB | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.46 |
| 20 | Austin Ekeler | WAS | RB | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 0.94 |
| 21 | Elijah Moore | PHI | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 0.87 |
| 22 | Eli Stowers | PHI | TE | $800 | $1,200 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.25 |
| 23 | John Bates | WAS | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.90 |
| 24 | Luke McCaffrey | WAS | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.17 |
| 25 | Ben Sinnott | WAS | TE | $600 | $900 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.68 |
| 26 | Johnny Mundt | PHI | TE | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.68 |
| 27 | Grant Calcaterra | PHI | TE | $400 | $600 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.72 |
| 28 | Colson Yankoff | WAS | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.95 |
| 29 | Britain Covey | PHI | WR | $200 | $300 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.85 |
Eagles vs Commanders DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Eagles vs Commanders DraftKings Showdown?
Jayden Daniels holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 39.4%, ahead of Rachaad White (12.7%) and Dallas Goedert (10.4%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Eagles vs Commanders?
Build around Dallas Goedert at captain with Jayden Daniels, Tanner McKee and Rachaad White at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (18 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $11,700 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Eagles vs Commanders DraftKings Showdown?
Jayden Daniels leads the SPAGS model at 19.8 DraftKings points for $10,400 at FLEX, or 29.7 points at captain for $15,600.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Eagles vs Commanders Showdown?
Jayden Daniels is the most expensive player at $10,400 FLEX and $15,600 at captain. All 29 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Eagles vs Commanders DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Drew Stevens (8.3 points at $4,600), Commanders (6.6 points at $4,000) and Jake Elliott (7.3 points at $5,000).
What is the Eagles vs Commanders spread and total?
The Commanders are a 5.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 40.5, with implied team totals of 23 for the Commanders and 17.5 for the Eagles.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
More NFL DFS: Week 8 DraftKings main slate picks and projections.
Use READER for 25% off
Want the whole slate? VIP unlocks SPAGS projections and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building.
25% off your first payment. First-time customers only. Enter READER in Stripe checkout.
JOIN THE SQUAD →SEE HOW IT WORKS →New to Polymarket US? Polymarket promo code SPLASH is for first-time Polymarket US users.
#PolymarketPartner · Paid partnership with Polymarket. 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/latest/rulebook for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.