Panthers vs Packers DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Panthers vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
Jordan Love has the highest SPAGS projection in the Panthers at Packers DraftKings Showdown: 18.0 points at $10,000 FLEX, 26.9 at captain for $15,000. Across 10,000 simulations Love holds 75% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Love is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 6.0 points at a $10,000 FLEX salary, in a game with a 47.5-point total.
Tetairoa McMillan has the largest captain share: 13.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with McMillan at captain. The model gives him 7.4 targets on 33.5 routes. Christian Watson is the next captain in line, at 12.2%. The model gives him 6.6 targets on 30.8 routes.
Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 25.5 for the Packers and 22 for the Panthers.
Behind Love, McMillan and Watson, the next projections are Bryce Young (17.1, $9,600), Chuba Hubbard (16.4, $9,000) and Matthew Golden (14.1, $8,400).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the October 27, 4:34 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Tetairoa McMillan, CAR WR ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Tetairoa McMillan holds 13.0% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $14,100 and the 15.3-point SPAGS model projection becomes 22.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 7.4 targets on 33.5 routes. Across 10,000 simulations McMillan averaged 15.3 points with a simulated floor of 3.0 and a ceiling of 41.3. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 13.0% as the captain and 19.8% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Christian Watson, GB WR ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Christian Watson holds 12.2% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,700 and the 15.3-point SPAGS model projection becomes 22.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 6.6 targets on 30.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Watson averaged 15.2 points with a simulated floor of 2.9 and a ceiling of 40.6. He holds 38% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.2% as the captain and 26.1% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Chuba Hubbard, CAR RB ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Chuba Hubbard holds 12.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $13,500 and the 16.4-point SPAGS model projection becomes 24.6 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 14.5 carries and 2.7 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Hubbard averaged 16.3 points with a simulated floor of 5.4 and a ceiling of 34.1. He holds 48% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.1% as the captain and 35.5% in a FLEX spot.
Panthers vs Packers DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,100 lineups in Chris Spags' TNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (121 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Jalen Coker | CAR | WR | $11,700 | 19.9 |
| FLEX | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | $9,600 | 17.1 |
| FLEX | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | $9,000 | 16.4 |
| FLEX | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | $9,400 | 15.3 |
| Core total | $39,700 | 68.6 |
That leaves $10,300 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Bryce Young at $14,400, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 71 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 5,100 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Panthers vs Packers
Jordan Love, GB QB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
Jordan Love carries the highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 18.0 DraftKings points for a $10,000 FLEX salary ($15,000 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Love averaged 18.0 points with a simulated floor of 6.0 and a ceiling of 37.5. He holds 75% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.8% as the captain and 67.0% in a FLEX spot.
Bryce Young, CAR QB ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Bryce Young carries the 2nd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 17.1 DraftKings points for a $9,600 FLEX salary ($14,400 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Young averaged 17.0 points with a simulated floor of 5.7 and a ceiling of 34.6. He holds 50% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.0% as the captain and 41.6% in a FLEX spot.
Matthew Golden, GB WR ($8,400 FLEX / $12,600 CPT)
Matthew Golden carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 14.1 DraftKings points for an $8,400 FLEX salary ($12,600 at captain). The model gives him 7.7 targets on 31.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Golden averaged 14.0 points with a simulated floor of 1.8 and a ceiling of 39.2. He holds 39% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 11.9% as the captain and 27.4% in a FLEX spot.
Jalen Coker, CAR WR ($7,800 FLEX / $11,700 CPT)
Jalen Coker carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 13.3 DraftKings points for a $7,800 FLEX salary ($11,700 at captain). The model gives him 6.2 targets on 27.2 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Coker averaged 13.3 points with a simulated floor of 2.8 and a ceiling of 33.9. He holds 33% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.8% as the captain and 24.3% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Trey Smack, GB K ($5,000 FLEX / $7,500 CPT)
Trey Smack projects for 9.3 DraftKings points at a $5,000 FLEX salary, 1.86 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Smack averaged 9.4 points with a simulated floor of 3.8 and a ceiling of 16.6. He holds 40% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.6% as the captain and 38.6% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Ryan Fitzgerald, CAR K ($4,800 FLEX / $7,200 CPT)
Ryan Fitzgerald projects for 8.1 DraftKings points at a $4,800 FLEX salary, 1.69 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Fitzgerald averaged 8.1 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 16.0. He holds 18% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.9% as the captain and 16.9% in a FLEX spot.
Panthers vs Packers Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 18.0 | 75% | 7.8% |
| Bryce Young | CAR | QB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 17.1 | 50% | 8.0% |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 16.4 | 48% | 12.1% |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | $9,800 | $14,700 | 15.3 | 38% | 12.2% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.3 | 33% | 13.0% |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | $8,400 | $12,600 | 14.1 | 39% | 11.9% |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | WR | $7,800 | $11,700 | 13.3 | 33% | 8.8% |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 12.5 | 35% | 7.1% |
Panthers vs Packers DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Panthers at Packers DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 18.0 | 26.9 | 1.80 |
| 2 | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 17.1 | 25.6 | 1.78 |
| 3 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 16.4 | 24.6 | 1.82 |
| 4 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | $9,800 | $14,700 | 15.3 | 22.9 | 1.56 |
| 5 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | $9,400 | $14,100 | 15.3 | 22.9 | 1.62 |
| 6 | Matthew Golden | GB | WR | $8,400 | $12,600 | 14.1 | 21.1 | 1.68 |
| 7 | Jalen Coker | CAR | WR | $7,800 | $11,700 | 13.3 | 19.9 | 1.70 |
| 8 | Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | $8,800 | $13,200 | 12.5 | 18.8 | 1.42 |
| 9 | Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.8 | 17.8 | 1.60 |
| 10 | Trey Smack | GB | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 1.86 |
| 11 | Ryan Fitzgerald | CAR | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 1.69 |
| 12 | Darren Waller | CAR | TE | $5,400 | $8,100 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 1.13 |
| 13 | Packers | GB | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 1.50 |
| 14 | MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB | $3,800 | $5,700 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 1.46 |
| 15 | Savion Williams | GB | WR | $4,400 | $6,600 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 1.25 |
| 16 | John Metchie III | CAR | WR | $3,400 | $5,100 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 1.42 |
| 17 | Panthers | CAR | DST | $3,600 | $5,400 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 1.28 |
| 18 | Trevor Etienne | CAR | RB | $3,200 | $4,800 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 1.02 |
| 19 | Pierre Strong Jr. | GB | RB | $2,400 | $3,600 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 1.30 |
| 20 | Tommy Tremble | CAR | TE | $2,600 | $3,900 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.14 |
| 21 | Kaleb Johnson | GB | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 1.89 |
| 22 | Mitchell Evans | CAR | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.61 |
| 23 | AJ Dillon | CAR | RB | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.26 |
| 24 | Brycen Tremayne | CAR | WR | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 0.83 |
| 25 | Jonnu Smith | GB | TE | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.75 |
| 26 | Bo Melton | GB | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.79 |
| 27 | Ja'seem Reed | CAR | WR | $200 | $300 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 8.00 |
| 28 | Anthony Tyus III | CAR | RB | $400 | $600 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.67 |
| 29 | David Moore | CAR | WR | $600 | $900 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.95 |
| 30 | J. Michael Sturdivant | GB | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.02 |
| 31 | Mark Redman | GB | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 3.00 |
Panthers vs Packers DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Panthers vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
Tetairoa McMillan holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 13.0%, ahead of Christian Watson (12.2%) and Chuba Hubbard (12.1%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Panthers vs Packers?
Build around Jalen Coker at captain with Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard and Tetairoa McMillan at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (121 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $10,300 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Panthers vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
Jordan Love leads the SPAGS model at 18.0 DraftKings points for $10,000 at FLEX, or 26.9 points at captain for $15,000.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Panthers vs Packers Showdown?
Jordan Love is the most expensive player at $10,000 FLEX and $15,000 at captain. All 31 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Panthers vs Packers DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Trey Smack (9.3 points at $5,000), Ryan Fitzgerald (8.1 points at $4,800) and Packers (6.0 points at $4,000).
What is the Panthers vs Packers spread and total?
The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 47.5, with implied team totals of 25.5 for the Packers and 22 for the Panthers.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
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