Bills vs Vikings DraftKings Showdown Picks: Monday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Bills vs Vikings DraftKings Showdown?
Josh Allen has the highest SPAGS projection in the Bills at Vikings DraftKings Showdown: 20.6 points at $11,400 FLEX, 30.9 at captain for $17,100. In a game totaled at 44.5, the model's favorite play is the quarterback who also runs. It has him carrying 6.7 times, and across 10,000 simulations he holds 71% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Allen is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 6.8 points at an $11,400 FLEX salary.
He also has the largest captain share: 21.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Allen at captain. James Cook III is the next captain in line, at 20.1%. The model gives him 19.9 carries and 2.4 targets.
Buffalo is a 3-point favorite, and the implied totals are 23.75 for the Bills and 20.75 for the Vikings.
Behind Allen and Cook, the next projections are Justin Jefferson (16.0, $9,800), Carson Wentz (15.4, $9,000) and Dalton Kincaid (11.3, $7,400).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the November 6, 10:40 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
MNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Josh Allen, BUF QB ($11,400 FLEX / $17,100 CPT)
Josh Allen holds 21.9% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $17,100 and the 20.6-point SPAGS model projection becomes 30.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 6.7 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Allen averaged 20.6 points with a simulated floor of 6.8 and a ceiling of 41.6. He holds 71% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 21.9% as the captain and 49.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: James Cook III, BUF RB ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
James Cook III holds 20.1% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $15,600 and the 17.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 26.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 19.9 carries and 2.4 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Cook averaged 17.9 points with a simulated floor of 6.8 and a ceiling of 35.9. He holds 60% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 20.1% as the captain and 40.3% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Justin Jefferson, MIN WR ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Justin Jefferson holds 16.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,700 and the 16.0-point SPAGS model projection becomes 23.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 6.4 targets on 22.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Jefferson averaged 15.9 points with a simulated floor of 3.5 and a ceiling of 42.1. He holds 47% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 16.7% as the captain and 29.8% in a FLEX spot.
Bills vs Vikings DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 4,766 lineups in Chris Spags' MNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (15 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | James Cook III | BUF | RB | $15,600 | 26.9 |
| FLEX | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $11,400 | 20.6 |
| FLEX | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | $7,400 | 11.3 |
| FLEX | Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | $6,800 | 9.4 |
| Core total | $41,200 | 68.3 |
That leaves $8,800 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Carson Wentz at $13,500, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 12 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 4,766 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Bills vs Vikings
Carson Wentz, MIN QB ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Carson Wentz carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 15.4 DraftKings points for a $9,000 FLEX salary ($13,500 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Wentz averaged 15.4 points with a simulated floor of 4.4 and a ceiling of 31.3. He holds 57% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.7% as the captain and 47.0% in a FLEX spot.
Dalton Kincaid, BUF TE ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
Dalton Kincaid carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.3 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 4.8 targets on 18.1 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Kincaid averaged 11.3 points with a simulated floor of 2.8 and a ceiling of 26.1. He holds 36% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 5.5% as the captain and 30.4% in a FLEX spot.
T.J. Hockenson, MIN TE ($5,400 FLEX / $8,100 CPT)
T.J. Hockenson carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.9 DraftKings points for a $5,400 FLEX salary ($8,100 at captain). The model gives him 4.7 targets on 17.4 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Hockenson averaged 10.9 points with a simulated floor of 2.6 and a ceiling of 25.9. He holds 41% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 7.0% as the captain and 33.7% in a FLEX spot.
DJ Moore, BUF WR ($7,800 FLEX / $11,700 CPT)
DJ Moore carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.3 DraftKings points for a $7,800 FLEX salary ($11,700 at captain). The model gives him 3.9 targets on 15.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Moore averaged 10.2 points with a simulated floor of 3.1 and a ceiling of 22.2. He holds 29% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.0% as the captain and 26.3% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Tyler Bass, BUF K ($4,600 FLEX / $6,900 CPT)
Tyler Bass projects for 8.4 DraftKings points at a $4,600 FLEX salary, 1.83 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Bass averaged 8.3 points with a simulated floor of 3.0 and a ceiling of 16.0. He holds 29% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.0% as the captain and 27.7% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Will Reichard, MIN K ($5,000 FLEX / $7,500 CPT)
Will Reichard projects for 7.9 DraftKings points at a $5,000 FLEX salary, 1.58 projected points per $1,000. Across 10,000 simulations Reichard averaged 7.9 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 16.0. He holds 24% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 0.7% as the captain and 23.4% in a FLEX spot.
Bills vs Vikings Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $11,400 | $17,100 | 20.6 | 71% | 21.9% |
| James Cook III | BUF | RB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 17.9 | 60% | 20.1% |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | $9,800 | $14,700 | 16.0 | 47% | 16.7% |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 15.4 | 57% | 9.7% |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.3 | 36% | 5.5% |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | $5,400 | $8,100 | 10.9 | 41% | 7.0% |
| DJ Moore | BUF | WR | $7,800 | $11,700 | 10.3 | 29% | 3.0% |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | $6,800 | $10,200 | 9.4 | 29% | 3.4% |
Bills vs Vikings DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Bills at Vikings DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $11,400 | $17,100 | 20.6 | 30.9 | 1.81 |
| 2 | James Cook III | BUF | RB | $10,400 | $15,600 | 17.9 | 26.9 | 1.72 |
| 3 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | $9,800 | $14,700 | 16.0 | 23.9 | 1.63 |
| 4 | Carson Wentz | MIN | QB | $9,000 | $13,500 | 15.4 | 23.1 | 1.71 |
| 5 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 11.3 | 17.0 | 1.53 |
| 6 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | $5,400 | $8,100 | 10.9 | 16.4 | 2.02 |
| 7 | DJ Moore | BUF | WR | $7,800 | $11,700 | 10.3 | 15.4 | 1.32 |
| 8 | Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | $6,800 | $10,200 | 9.4 | 14.1 | 1.39 |
| 9 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | $7,200 | $10,800 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 1.29 |
| 10 | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | RB | $7,000 | $10,500 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 1.29 |
| 11 | Jordan Mason | MIN | RB | $6,400 | $9,600 | 8.6 | 12.9 | 1.35 |
| 12 | Tyler Bass | BUF | K | $4,600 | $6,900 | 8.4 | 12.6 | 1.83 |
| 13 | Will Reichard | MIN | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 1.58 |
| 14 | Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | $5,800 | $8,700 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 1.23 |
| 15 | Bills | BUF | DST | $4,000 | $6,000 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 1.57 |
| 16 | Vikings | MIN | DST | $3,600 | $5,400 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 1.53 |
| 17 | Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | $3,400 | $5,100 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 1.56 |
| 18 | Jauan Jennings | MIN | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 0.99 |
| 19 | Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 1.11 |
| 20 | Ben Yurosek | MIN | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.17 |
| 21 | Skyler Bell | BUF | WR | $200 | $300 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 8.85 |
| 22 | Ray Davis | BUF | RB | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.76 |
| 23 | DeeJay Dallas | MIN | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.69 |
| 24 | Gavin Bartholomew | MIN | TE | $800 | $1,200 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.06 |
| 25 | Myles Price | MIN | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.68 |
| 26 | Jackson Hawes | BUF | TE | $600 | $900 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.35 |
| 27 | Tai Felton | MIN | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.75 |
| 28 | Max Bredeson | MIN | RB | $200 | $300 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.25 |
| 29 | Greg Dortch | BUF | WR | $1,800 | $2,700 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.23 |
| 30 | Keleki Latu | BUF | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.95 |
Bills vs Vikings DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Bills vs Vikings DraftKings Showdown?
Josh Allen holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 21.9%, ahead of James Cook III (20.1%) and Justin Jefferson (16.7%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Bills vs Vikings?
Build around James Cook III at captain with Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid and Jordan Addison at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (15 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $8,800 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Bills vs Vikings DraftKings Showdown?
Josh Allen leads the SPAGS model at 20.6 DraftKings points for $11,400 at FLEX, or 30.9 points at captain for $17,100.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Bills vs Vikings Showdown?
Josh Allen is the most expensive player at $11,400 FLEX and $17,100 at captain. All 30 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Bills vs Vikings DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Tyler Bass (8.4 points at $4,600), Will Reichard (7.9 points at $5,000) and Bills (6.3 points at $4,000).
What is the Bills vs Vikings spread and total?
The Bills are a 3-point favorite in a game totaled at 44.5, with implied team totals of 23.75 for the Bills and 20.75 for the Vikings.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
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