Buccaneers vs Bears DraftKings Showdown Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Buccaneers vs Bears DraftKings Showdown?
Caleb Williams has the highest SPAGS projection in the Buccaneers at Bears DraftKings Showdown: 19.9 points at $10,800 FLEX, 29.8 at captain for $16,200. Across 10,000 simulations Williams holds 64% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Williams is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 7.0 points at a $10,800 FLEX salary, in a game with a 47.5-point total.
D'Andre Swift has the largest captain share: 18.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Swift at captain. The model gives him 20.4 carries and 3.2 targets. Caleb Williams is the next captain in line, at 15.8%. The model has him running 4.5 times.
Chicago is a 6-point favorite, and the implied totals are 26.75 for the Bears and 20.75 for the Buccaneers.
Behind Williams and Swift, the next projections are Bucky Irving (16.4, $9,800), Baker Mayfield (16.3, $9,600) and Luther Burden III (14.9, $9,000).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the November 6, 10:39 AM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
SNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: D'Andre Swift, CHI RB ($10,000 FLEX / $15,000 CPT)
D'Andre Swift holds 18.3% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $15,000 and the 18.8-point SPAGS model projection becomes 28.3 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 20.4 carries and 3.2 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Swift averaged 18.8 points with a simulated floor of 7.6 and a ceiling of 36.1. He holds 60% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 18.3% as the captain and 42.0% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Caleb Williams, CHI QB ($10,800 FLEX / $16,200 CPT)
Caleb Williams holds 15.8% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $16,200 and the 19.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 29.8 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 4.5 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Williams averaged 19.9 points with a simulated floor of 7.0 and a ceiling of 40.4. He holds 64% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 15.8% as the captain and 48.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Luther Burden III, CHI WR ($9,000 FLEX / $13,500 CPT)
Luther Burden III holds 13.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $13,500 and the 14.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 22.3 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 6.2 targets on 19.9 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Burden averaged 15.0 points with a simulated floor of 2.4 and a ceiling of 41.0. He holds 40% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 13.7% as the captain and 25.8% in a FLEX spot.
Buccaneers vs Bears DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 4,062 lineups in Chris Spags' SNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (17 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 142,687-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | $13,500 | 22.3 |
| FLEX | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | $10,800 | 19.9 |
| FLEX | D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | $10,000 | 18.8 |
| FLEX | Cairo Santos | CHI | K | $5,400 | 8.9 |
| Core total | $39,700 | 70.0 |
That leaves $10,300 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Cade Otton at $6,000, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 11 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 4,062 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Buccaneers vs Bears
Bucky Irving, TB RB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Bucky Irving carries the 3rd-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.4 DraftKings points for a $9,800 FLEX salary ($14,700 at captain). The model gives him 14.7 carries and 3.1 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Irving averaged 16.2 points with a simulated floor of 5.6 and a ceiling of 34.4. He holds 48% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 12.1% as the captain and 36.0% in a FLEX spot.
Baker Mayfield, TB QB ($9,600 FLEX / $14,400 CPT)
Baker Mayfield carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 16.3 DraftKings points for a $9,600 FLEX salary ($14,400 at captain). Across 10,000 simulations Mayfield averaged 16.2 points with a simulated floor of 5.0 and a ceiling of 32.4. He holds 51% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 9.1% as the captain and 42.1% in a FLEX spot.
Colston Loveland, CHI TE ($7,800 FLEX / $11,700 CPT)
Colston Loveland carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 13.5 DraftKings points for a $7,800 FLEX salary ($11,700 at captain). The model gives him 5.7 targets on 22.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Loveland averaged 13.6 points with a simulated floor of 4.3 and a ceiling of 31.2. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.2% as the captain and 34.3% in a FLEX spot.
Emeka Egbuka, TB WR ($8,400 FLEX / $12,600 CPT)
Emeka Egbuka carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 11.6 DraftKings points for an $8,400 FLEX salary ($12,600 at captain). The model gives him 8.0 targets on 29.6 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Egbuka averaged 11.5 points with a simulated floor of 3.5 and a ceiling of 26.2. He holds 30% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.5% as the captain and 25.1% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Cade Otton, TB TE ($4,000 FLEX / $6,000 CPT)
Cade Otton projects for 7.9 DraftKings points at a $4,000 FLEX salary, 1.99 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 4.1 targets on 23.0 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Otton averaged 7.9 points with a simulated floor of 0.5 and a ceiling of 24.5. He holds 27% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 4.0% as the captain and 22.9% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Kenny Gainwell, TB RB ($4,800 FLEX / $7,200 CPT)
Kenny Gainwell projects for 8.7 DraftKings points at a $4,800 FLEX salary, 1.82 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 5.9 carries and 2.6 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Gainwell averaged 8.7 points with a simulated floor of 3.2 and a ceiling of 15.6. He holds 26% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.5% as the captain and 24.6% in a FLEX spot.
Buccaneers vs Bears Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | $10,800 | $16,200 | 19.9 | 64% | 15.8% |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 18.8 | 60% | 18.3% |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 16.4 | 48% | 12.1% |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 16.3 | 51% | 9.1% |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 14.9 | 40% | 13.7% |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | $7,800 | $11,700 | 13.5 | 42% | 8.2% |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | $8,400 | $12,600 | 11.6 | 30% | 4.5% |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | $6,800 | $10,200 | 11.3 | 36% | 3.7% |
Buccaneers vs Bears DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Buccaneers at Bears DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | $10,800 | $16,200 | 19.9 | 29.8 | 1.84 |
| 2 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | $10,000 | $15,000 | 18.8 | 28.3 | 1.88 |
| 3 | Bucky Irving | TB | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 16.4 | 24.6 | 1.68 |
| 4 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | $9,600 | $14,400 | 16.3 | 24.4 | 1.70 |
| 5 | Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | $9,000 | $13,500 | 14.9 | 22.3 | 1.65 |
| 6 | Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | $7,800 | $11,700 | 13.5 | 20.2 | 1.73 |
| 7 | Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | $8,400 | $12,600 | 11.6 | 17.4 | 1.38 |
| 8 | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | $6,800 | $10,200 | 11.3 | 17.0 | 1.67 |
| 9 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | $6,400 | $9,600 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 1.41 |
| 10 | Cairo Santos | CHI | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 1.66 |
| 11 | Kenny Gainwell | TB | RB | $4,800 | $7,200 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 1.82 |
| 12 | Cade Otton | TB | TE | $4,000 | $6,000 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 1.99 |
| 13 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | K | $5,000 | $7,500 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 1.58 |
| 14 | Bears | CHI | DST | $5,200 | $7,800 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 1.26 |
| 15 | Kalif Raymond | CHI | WR | $3,800 | $5,700 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 1.67 |
| 16 | Ted Hurst III | TB | WR | $3,400 | $5,100 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 1.66 |
| 17 | Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | $4,400 | $6,600 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 1.26 |
| 18 | Buccaneers | TB | DST | $3,600 | $5,400 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 1.25 |
| 19 | Tez Johnson | TB | WR | $3,200 | $4,800 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 1.23 |
| 20 | Sam Roush | CHI | TE | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.08 |
| 21 | Sean Tucker | TB | RB | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.51 |
| 22 | Zavion Thomas | CHI | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.70 |
| 23 | Stephen Carlson | CHI | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4.35 |
| 24 | Jahdae Walker | CHI | WR | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.58 |
| 25 | Bauer Sharp | TB | TE | $600 | $900 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.77 |
| 26 | Payne Durham | TB | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.28 |
| 27 | Kameron Johnson | TB | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.33 |
| 28 | David Sills V | TB | WR | $1,000 | $1,500 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.24 |
| 29 | Ko Kieft | TB | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.95 |
Buccaneers vs Bears DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Buccaneers vs Bears DraftKings Showdown?
D'Andre Swift holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 18.3%, ahead of Caleb Williams (15.8%) and Luther Burden III (13.7%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Buccaneers vs Bears?
Build around Luther Burden III at captain with Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift and Cairo Santos at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (17 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $10,300 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Buccaneers vs Bears DraftKings Showdown?
Caleb Williams leads the SPAGS model at 19.9 DraftKings points for $10,800 at FLEX, or 29.8 points at captain for $16,200.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Buccaneers vs Bears Showdown?
Caleb Williams is the most expensive player at $10,800 FLEX and $16,200 at captain. All 29 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Buccaneers vs Bears DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Cade Otton (7.9 points at $4,000), Kenny Gainwell (8.7 points at $4,800) and Kalif Raymond (6.3 points at $3,800).
What is the Buccaneers vs Bears spread and total?
The Bears are a 6-point favorite in a game totaled at 47.5, with implied team totals of 26.75 for the Bears and 20.75 for the Buccaneers.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
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