Jaguars vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Captains, Projections and Sim Plays
Who are the best picks for the Jaguars vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown?
Trevor Lawrence has the highest SPAGS projection in the Jaguars at Ravens DraftKings Showdown: 18.2 points at $10,600 FLEX, 27.3 at captain for $15,900. Across 10,000 simulations Lawrence holds 80% of the winning-lineup credit. The case against Lawrence is his range, not his role: a simulated floor of 6.3 points at a $10,600 FLEX salary, in a game with a 41.5-point total.
He also has the largest captain share: 19.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit comes with Lawrence at captain. Bhayshul Tuten is the next captain in line, at 17.7%. The model gives him 16.1 carries and 2.2 targets.
Jacksonville is a 9.5-point favorite, and the implied totals are 25.5 for the Jaguars and 16 for the Ravens. Neither number describes a shootout. Both describe a game where somebody has to carry the ball.
Behind Lawrence and Tuten, the next projections are Parker Washington (13.7, $9,400), Derrick Henry (13.3, $10,200) and Joe Fagnano (13.3, $8,400).
Every projection below is a SPAGS model estimate from the November 3, 12:37 PM ET run of the Splash Play NFL model. Winning-lineup and captain credit come from 10,000 simulations of the Showdown contest, and tied winning entries share credit. A player's simulated floor is his 10th-percentile score and his ceiling is his 95th. Showdown lineups use one captain, who scores 1.5x at 1.5x salary, and five FLEX players.
Chris Spags' latest NFL DFS breakdown on the Splash Play NFL channel.
TNF Showdown captain picks: who the sim wins with
Captain: Trevor Lawrence, JAX QB ($10,600 FLEX / $15,900 CPT)
Trevor Lawrence holds 19.4% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain, more than any other player in this game. At captain he costs $15,900 and the 18.2-point SPAGS model projection becomes 27.3 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model includes 3.6 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Lawrence averaged 18.4 points with a simulated floor of 6.3 and a ceiling of 36.2. He holds 80% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 19.4% as the captain and 60.5% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Bhayshul Tuten, JAX RB ($9,800 FLEX / $14,700 CPT)
Bhayshul Tuten holds 17.7% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,700 and the 15.9-point SPAGS model projection becomes 23.9 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 16.1 carries and 2.2 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Tuten averaged 16.0 points with a simulated floor of 5.0 and a ceiling of 34.6. He holds 62% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 17.7% as the captain and 44.3% in a FLEX spot.
Captain: Parker Washington, JAX WR ($9,400 FLEX / $14,100 CPT)
Parker Washington holds 13.6% of the simulated winning-lineup credit as a captain. At captain he costs $14,100 and the 13.7-point SPAGS model projection becomes 20.5 with the 1.5x captain multiplier. The model gives him 5.8 targets on 21.3 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Washington averaged 13.6 points with a simulated floor of 1.5 and a ceiling of 39.1. He holds 42% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 13.6% as the captain and 28.5% in a FLEX spot.
Jaguars vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown lineup core from the sim
Out of the 5,100 lineups in Chris Spags' TNF Showdown pool, the one that won the most simulations (23 of 10,000 simulated contests against a modeled 237,812-entry field) is built around this captain and these three FLEX plays.
| Slot | Player | Team | Pos | Salary | SPAGS proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $15,300 | 20.0 |
| FLEX | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | $10,600 | 18.2 |
| FLEX | Joe Fagnano | BAL | QB | $8,400 | 13.3 |
| FLEX | Brenton Strange | JAX | TE | $7,400 | 10.3 |
| Core total | $41,700 | 61.8 |
That leaves $8,300 of the $50,000 cap for the last two FLEX spots.
Contrarian captain pivot: Zay Flowers at $15,600, outside the sim's top three captains. The best lineup in the pool with that captain won 12 of 10,000 simulated contests.
Take these picks into your own build. The complete lineups, all 5,100 of them with simulated win rates, are in the Splash Play NFL tool for Apex members. Apex gives you NFL lineup browsing and portfolio building: compare lineup options, build for your entries, review player exposures and export for DraftKings or FanDuel. Build with Apex →
Top FLEX projections for Jaguars vs Ravens
Derrick Henry, BAL RB ($10,200 FLEX / $15,300 CPT)
Derrick Henry carries the 4th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 13.3 DraftKings points for a $10,200 FLEX salary ($15,300 at captain). The model gives him 17.4 carries and 1.5 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Henry averaged 13.3 points with a simulated floor of 3.0 and a ceiling of 31.9. He holds 44% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 10.4% as the captain and 33.3% in a FLEX spot.
Joe Fagnano, BAL QB ($8,400 FLEX / $12,600 CPT)
Joe Fagnano carries the 5th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 13.3 DraftKings points for an $8,400 FLEX salary ($12,600 at captain). The model includes 3.3 rushing attempts. Across 10,000 simulations Fagnano averaged 13.5 points with a simulated floor of 4.2 and a ceiling of 27.3. He holds 57% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 8.0% as the captain and 49.3% in a FLEX spot.
Brenton Strange, JAX TE ($7,400 FLEX / $11,100 CPT)
Brenton Strange carries the 6th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 10.3 DraftKings points for a $7,400 FLEX salary ($11,100 at captain). The model gives him 4.6 targets on 18.8 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Strange averaged 10.3 points with a simulated floor of 2.2 and a ceiling of 25.4. He holds 34% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 6.0% as the captain and 28.5% in a FLEX spot.
Zay Flowers, BAL WR ($10,400 FLEX / $15,600 CPT)
Zay Flowers carries the 7th-highest SPAGS model projection in the game at 9.6 DraftKings points for a $10,400 FLEX salary ($15,600 at captain). The model gives him 5.6 targets on 18.1 routes. Across 10,000 simulations Flowers averaged 9.6 points with a simulated floor of 2.0 and a ceiling of 24.8. He holds 23% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 3.2% as the captain and 19.9% in a FLEX spot.
Showdown value plays at $5,000 and under
Value: Chris Rodriguez Jr., JAX RB ($3,400 FLEX / $5,100 CPT)
Chris Rodriguez Jr. projects for 6.8 DraftKings points at a $3,400 FLEX salary, 1.99 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 7.2 carries and 0.7 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Rodriguez averaged 6.7 points with a simulated floor of 1.8 and a ceiling of 13.8. He holds 21% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.6% as the captain and 19.5% in a FLEX spot.
Value: Justice Hill, BAL RB ($3,200 FLEX / $4,800 CPT)
Justice Hill projects for 6.3 DraftKings points at a $3,200 FLEX salary, 1.97 projected points per $1,000. The model gives him 2.6 carries and 3.0 targets. Across 10,000 simulations Hill averaged 6.3 points with a simulated floor of 1.6 and a ceiling of 14.5. He holds 14% of the simulated winning-lineup credit: 1.7% as the captain and 12.4% in a FLEX spot.
Jaguars vs Ravens Showdown projections and sim results
The eight highest SPAGS model projections in the game, with each player's share of winning-lineup credit overall and as a captain.
| Player | Team | Pos | FLEX | CPT | SPAGS model proj | Winning-lineup credit | As captain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | $10,600 | $15,900 | 18.2 | 80% | 19.4% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 15.9 | 62% | 17.7% |
| Parker Washington | JAX | WR | $9,400 | $14,100 | 13.7 | 42% | 13.6% |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $10,200 | $15,300 | 13.3 | 44% | 10.4% |
| Joe Fagnano | BAL | QB | $8,400 | $12,600 | 13.3 | 57% | 8.0% |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 10.3 | 34% | 6.0% |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | $10,400 | $15,600 | 9.6 | 23% | 3.2% |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 9.5 | 31% | 3.9% |
Jaguars vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown salaries and projections (all players)
Every player on the Jaguars at Ravens DraftKings Showdown slate with a SPAGS model projection, ranked by projected points. Captain salary is 1.5x FLEX and scores 1.5x points.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | FLEX salary | CPT salary | SPAGS proj | CPT proj | Pts/$1K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | $10,600 | $15,900 | 18.2 | 27.3 | 1.72 |
| 2 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | RB | $9,800 | $14,700 | 15.9 | 23.9 | 1.62 |
| 3 | Parker Washington | JAX | WR | $9,400 | $14,100 | 13.7 | 20.5 | 1.46 |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $10,200 | $15,300 | 13.3 | 20.0 | 1.31 |
| 5 | Joe Fagnano | BAL | QB | $8,400 | $12,600 | 13.3 | 19.9 | 1.58 |
| 6 | Brenton Strange | JAX | TE | $7,400 | $11,100 | 10.3 | 15.4 | 1.39 |
| 7 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | $10,400 | $15,600 | 9.6 | 14.3 | 0.92 |
| 8 | Jakobi Meyers | JAX | WR | $7,000 | $10,500 | 9.5 | 14.2 | 1.36 |
| 9 | Cam Little | JAX | K | $5,400 | $8,100 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 1.62 |
| 10 | Jaguars | JAX | DST | $5,800 | $8,700 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 1.34 |
| 11 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | RB | $3,400 | $5,100 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 1.99 |
| 12 | Justice Hill | BAL | RB | $3,200 | $4,800 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 1.97 |
| 13 | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | $4,400 | $6,600 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 1.35 |
| 14 | Tyler Loop | BAL | K | $4,800 | $7,200 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 1.23 |
| 15 | Ja'Kobi Lane | BAL | WR | $4,000 | $6,000 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 1.19 |
| 16 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | WR | $6,400 | $9,600 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 0.72 |
| 17 | Ravens | BAL | DST | $3,000 | $4,500 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 1.50 |
| 18 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | $3,800 | $5,700 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.05 |
| 19 | Josh Cameron | JAX | WR | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.05 |
| 20 | Nate Boerkircher | JAX | TE | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.58 |
| 21 | Josh Cuevas | BAL | TE | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.06 |
| 22 | Ameer Abdullah | JAX | RB | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.45 |
| 23 | Elijah Sarratt | BAL | WR | $200 | $300 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 12.25 |
| 24 | Travis Hunter | JAX | WR | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 0.95 |
| 25 | Matt Hibner | BAL | TE | $600 | $900 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.12 |
| 26 | Rasheen Ali | BAL | RB | $400 | $600 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 4.65 |
| 27 | Chris Moore | BAL | WR | $200 | $300 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 8.95 |
| 28 | LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAX | RB | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.26 |
| 29 | Devontez Walker | BAL | WR | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.84 |
| 30 | Tanner Koziol | JAX | TE | $200 | $300 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 6.00 |
| 31 | Nick Vannett | BAL | TE | $200 | $300 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 5.80 |
| 32 | LaJohntay Wester | BAL | WR | $800 | $1,200 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.34 |
| 33 | CJ Williams | JAX | WR | $200 | $300 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4.65 |
| 34 | Quintin Morris | JAX | TE | $200 | $300 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 4.05 |
Jaguars vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown FAQ
Who is the best captain for the Jaguars vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown?
Trevor Lawrence holds the largest captain share of simulated winning lineups at 19.4%, ahead of Bhayshul Tuten (17.7%) and Parker Washington (13.6%), across 10,000 simulations.
What is the best DraftKings Showdown lineup for Jaguars vs Ravens?
Build around Derrick Henry at captain with Trevor Lawrence, Joe Fagnano and Brenton Strange at FLEX. That is the core of the lineup that won the most simulations in Chris Spags' pool (23 of 10,000 simulated contests), and it leaves $8,300 for the last two FLEX spots.
Who has the highest projection in Jaguars vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown?
Trevor Lawrence leads the SPAGS model at 18.2 DraftKings points for $10,600 at FLEX, or 27.3 points at captain for $15,900.
What are the DraftKings salaries for Jaguars vs Ravens Showdown?
Trevor Lawrence is the most expensive player at $10,600 FLEX and $15,900 at captain. All 34 players with a SPAGS projection are listed above with FLEX salary, captain salary and projection.
What are the best value plays in Jaguars vs Ravens DraftKings Showdown?
At $5,000 and under, the best projected points per $1,000 belong to Chris Rodriguez Jr. (6.8 points at $3,400), Justice Hill (6.3 points at $3,200) and Ravens (4.5 points at $3,000).
What is the Jaguars vs Ravens spread and total?
The Jaguars are a 9.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 41.5, with implied team totals of 25.5 for the Jaguars and 16 for the Ravens.
Where can I get DraftKings NFL DFS projections and simulations?
Splash Play, built by Chris Spags, offers DraftKings NFL DFS projections, simulation results and lineup tools. The weekly articles include free SPAGS projections. VIP opens the in-app SPAGS projection table, CSV exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and portfolio building for your entries, player-exposure review and DraftKings or FanDuel export. Squirt Squad includes matchup research. Player search and historical stats are free. Compare Splash Play plans →
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