NBA DFS Research Walkthrough: Projection to Simulation
NBA DFS research comes down to minutes. A player's projection is his expected production in the minutes he is expected to play, so the question to ask about any number is whether the minutes behind it still hold. This walkthrough follows one made-up player from his first projection, through a teammate being ruled out, to the checks to run before you build.
The player and the numbers are invented to show the method.
1. Set the site and slate
Open the NBA tool and choose DraftKings or FanDuel and the slate you are entering. Salaries and scoring differ between the two, so numbers from the two are not interchangeable.
2. Take a baseline
A guard, Vale, projects for 29 points on 26 minutes at a salary of 6,100. A teammate who plays the same position is listed as questionable. Note the time and those three numbers.
The question is not whether 29 is a good number. It is what happens to the 26 minutes if the teammate sits.
3. The news arrives
The teammate is ruled out. An updated projection has Vale at 34 points on 31 minutes: five more minutes, five more points, about 17% up. His salary has not moved, which is the whole opportunity. The price was set before the news.
Example note: Vale 29 on 26 minutes at first check. Teammate ruled out. Now 34 on 31 minutes. Same salary, same slate.
Check the rest of the team too. The missing player's minutes do not all go to one man, and his shots have to go somewhere. Several projections on that team should have moved, and one of the others may be the better play.
4. Run the simulation again
A simulation you ran before the news used the old projections. A new number on the screen does not reach back into an old result, so run it again. Then compare the same thing before and after: floor with floor, ceiling with ceiling. The old projection against the new ceiling is not a comparison.
5. Check the lineup around him
A higher projection at the same salary changes what Vale is worth to a lineup, and it may change who you pair him with. Re-check the total salary and every position. One swap can leave a lineup over the cap or with an empty slot.
6. Name what you still don't know
The teammate being out is confirmed. Vale playing 31 minutes is not. That depends on the coach, on foul trouble and on whether the game stays close. A confirmed absence removes one uncertainty. It does not make him a lock, and the word should not appear in your notes.
Where to see it
Squirt Squad covers matchup screens and projection matrices. Squirt Squad VIP adds SPAGS projections, exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and the Portfolio Builder for NFL and MLB. Compare memberships. Projections and simulation results are model outputs, not a promise of results.
Related: MLB DFS research walkthrough · What to do when a player is ruled out