UPDATED OCTOBER 29, 2026

Using Projections to Read a Polymarket US Price

By Chris Spags of Splash Play · Published · Updated

A Polymarket US price and a projection answer two different questions: the price reflects how likely traders think an outcome is, and a projection is one model's expected outcome for a player or event. Putting them side by side, as the NBA markets tab does with SPAGS projections and Polymarket US prices, shows where the two sit apart; it does not tell you what to trade.

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What each number is

  • The Polymarket US price: prices reflect how the crowd views the likelihood of an outcome happening, and each market is a yes-or-no question about something that will happen in the future.
  • The projection: SPAGS projections are Splash Play's expected outcomes, shown on the NBA markets tab beside the Polymarket US price for the same player and stat.
  • Settlement: winning contracts settle at one dollar and losing contracts settle at zero, and Polymarket Clearing processes the settlement and updates balances automatically in your Portfolio.

Reading the two numbers together

Open the NBA markets tab, find the player and stat, and compare the SPAGS projection with the Polymarket US price beside it. A gap between a projection and a price is information about how two views differ, not a recommendation: this page does not recommend a trade, and Polymarket US's own pages state the risk line shown beside every sign-up link here.

Limits of the comparison

A projection is one model's view and a market price moves as traders adjust orders. Neither number settles the market; the event does. Treat any gap as a reason to read the market's own rules and terms before deciding anything.

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18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/latest/rulebook for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

FAQ

Prices reflect how the crowd views the likelihood of an outcome happening. Winning contracts settle at one dollar and losing contracts settle at zero.
A projection is an expected outcome; a market price is the crowd's likelihood. The NBA markets tab shows SPAGS projections beside Polymarket US prices so the two can be compared for the same player and stat.
No. A gap shows two views differ. This page does not recommend a trade.

Sources

  • Polymarket US: What is Polymarket US?: https://docs.polymarket.us/getting-started/what-is-polymarket-us
  • Polymarket US: Market Settlement: https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/markets/contract-settlement

All sources read October 29, 2026.