DFS Ownership vs. Projections: How to Use Both

By Splash Play Staff · A guide to reading the tools

In DFS, a projection is a forecast of how many fantasy points a player scores, and ownership is an estimate of how much of the field will roster him. Use the projection to decide whether a player is good. Use ownership to decide how much of him you want. Your own exposure is a third number, and it is the only one of the three you set yourself.

Keep the units apart

Two made-up players, not current data:

Player	Projected points	Estimated ownership
Rowan	18	25%
Quinn	17	8%

The gap in points is one. The gap in ownership is 17 percentage points. Those are different units, and no arithmetic turns them into one score. Subtracting 25 from 18 tells you nothing.

Ask why a player is low-owned

Low ownership is not a discount sticker. Sometimes the field is missing something. Just as often the field knows something: a role in doubt, a questionable tag, a salary that doesn't fit good lineups. Before you treat Quinn as an opportunity, check his role, his status and his salary on the slate you are playing.

High ownership works the same way in reverse. A popular player can be popular because the projection is right. Fading him because he is popular, with no view on why the projection is wrong, is a guess.

Ownership answers "how much," not "whether"

If Rowan is the better play, he is the better play at 25%. What ownership changes is the payoff. When he hits, a quarter of the field hits with you. When Quinn hits, far fewer do. So the useful question is how much of each you want across your lineups, given how many entries you have and the contest you are in.

Your exposure is a third number

If Quinn is in 6 of your 20 lineups, your exposure to him is 30%. That sits beside his 8% ownership estimate without changing it. Exposure is a limit you choose. Ownership is an estimate about everyone else. Keep them in separate columns.

Check the format before you move a number

If you copy ownership into another tool, check whether it is written as 8, 8% or 0.08. A column that looks too small is not a reason to rescale it. Note the slate and the time you took it, because ownership estimates move with news and they can be wrong.

Where to see it

Open the NFL, NBA or MLB tool for the current slate. Squirt Squad covers matchup screens and projection matrices. Squirt Squad VIP adds SPAGS projections, exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and the Portfolio Builder for NFL and MLB. Compare memberships. Ownership is an estimate and low ownership is not an edge by itself.