NBA DFS Ownership Projections

By Splash Play Staff · A guide to reading the tools

NBA DFS ownership projections estimate what share of the field will roster each player on a slate. Ownership is not the chance a player hits his projection, and it is not your own exposure. It tells you how much company you will have if you are right.

What an ownership projection is, and is not

Ownership is an estimate of how much of the field will roster a player. It is not the chance he hits his projection, and it is not your own exposure to him. Say a player projects for 14 points at 18% ownership (example numbers, not a current slate). Those are two separate facts: a forecast of his score and a guess about the crowd.

What moves NBA ownership

Late scratches. Salaries are set before the news. When a starter is ruled out, his cheap replacement becomes the obvious play and ownership follows quickly.
Minutes certainty. The field pays for players whose minutes look safe.
Slate size. A two-game slate concentrates ownership far more than a ten-game one.
Timing. News that breaks minutes before lock is priced in by fewer people than news from the morning.

How to use it with a projection

Use the projection to decide whether a player is good. Use ownership to decide how much of him you want. A popular player can still be the right play; ownership tells you how much company you will have when he hits. Before you treat a low-owned player as an opportunity, check his role, his status and his salary, because sometimes the field knows something. Ownership versus projections works through an example.

Set the site first

DraftKings and FanDuel price and score players differently, so the same player can be popular on one and overlooked on the other. Choose the site and the slate before you read an ownership number, and note the time you took it. Ownership estimates move as news arrives.

Where to see NBA ownership

The NBA tool shows an ownership estimate beside each projection for the site and slate you set. Simulation data, including simulation share and leverage, is part of Squirt Squad VIP and Apex; compare memberships. Ownership figures are estimates about the field and do not promise an outcome.

Questions

What are NBA DFS ownership projections?

They are estimates of the share of contest entries that will include each player on a slate. A player at 20% projected ownership is expected to be in about one lineup in five.

Is high ownership bad?

No. A player can be popular because his projection is right. High ownership means more of the field gains with you when he does well, so the question is how much of him you want, not whether he is good.

What is the difference between ownership and exposure?

Ownership is an estimate about everyone else. Exposure is your own number: a player in 6 of your 20 lineups is 30% exposure. You set exposure; you can only estimate ownership.

Is ownership the same on DraftKings and FanDuel?

No. Salaries and scoring differ, so the field builds different lineups on each site. Read ownership for the site and slate you are entering.

How accurate are ownership projections?

They are estimates and they move with news, especially close to lock. Note when you took a number and check it again before you finalize lineups.

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