How to Read DFS Simulation Results

By Splash Play Staff · A guide to reading the tools

A DFS simulation result is a range of outcomes, so read the range before you read the ranking. Floor and ceiling tell you how wide it is. Cash rate, wins and top-10 finishes tell you how often a lineup landed where you want it. None of them is a prediction of what happens tonight.

Ten outcomes, three different summaries

Take ten made-up scores for one lineup: 80, 90, 95, 100, 105, 110, 115, 120, 130 and 155. These are a teaching example, not Splash Play output.

The average is 110.
The middle outcome is 107.5.
The best is 155, and it happened once in ten.

Quote only the 155 and you hide nine ordinary results. Quote only the 110 and you hide a range that runs from 80 to 155. Each number is true and each answers a different question, which is why the tools show more than one.

What the columns measure

Floor and ceiling describe a player's range across the simulated slates.
Cash rate is how often a lineup finished in the money in the model.
Wins and top-10 finishes are how often it finished at the very top.
Sim% describes simulated lineup usage. It is a model result, not a promise about your final exposure.

The three lineup views use those measures differently. Cash frequency emphasizes modeled cash rate. Pure upside emphasizes modeled wins and top-10 finishes. Balanced combines the two.

Decide the comparison before you look for a winner

Pick what you care about first: clearing a score, cashing, or finishing first. In the toy list, three of ten outcomes reach 120, so 30% of that list clears 120. That is a count inside one made-up list. It becomes useful only when you compare two lineups on the same measure, the same slate and the same settings.

A score is not a finish

A 120-point lineup can win one contest and miss the money in another. Where it lands depends on the field it is up against and how the contest pays, and a lineup that many other entries also built splits what it wins. Check which field and payout a contest result assumes before you compare it with anything.

Small gaps can be noise

A tiny cash-rate gap may come from simulation noise. Check the run size and whether the difference persists before treating it as a reliable ranking. Running more simulations smooths out randomness. It does not fix a wrong assumption: a bad projection simulated ten times as long is still a bad projection. If you change projections, run the simulation again so the results include the change.

Where to see it

Simulation results are part of Squirt Squad VIP and Apex. Open the NFL tool for the current slate, read the field guide for what each tab does, or compare memberships. Simulation results are model outputs. They do not promise a finish or a payout.