NFL DFS Slate Analysis: A Repeatable Walkthrough

By Splash Play Staff · A guide to reading the tools

A repeatable NFL DFS slate review has five steps: set the platform and slate, question one projection, check ownership separately, read the simulations, then build and review your lineups. Doing them in the same order every week is what keeps you from starting with a favorite player and hunting for numbers that agree.

The players and numbers below are made up to show the method.

1. Set the platform, slate and format

Open the NFL tool and choose DraftKings or FanDuel and the slate you are entering. Main slate and Showdown are different jobs. On a Showdown slate a captain row and a flex row are not interchangeable, so know which one you are reading.

2. Take a baseline and question one projection

Note the time and the projections you care about. Say quarterback Morgan projects for 21 points and his receiver Hale for 13.5.

Now pick one assumption to test. Don't try to audit the whole board. Here it is Hale's role: another receiver on his team is questionable. Hale's 13.5 is built on a certain share of the targets, so the question is what that share becomes if the teammate sits. Wait for the report. Changing a number because someone "might be out" is how a hunch turns into a projection.

3. Check ownership in its own column

Morgan and Hale score together when the passing game works, which is why people stack them. Look at how popular the pair is, and keep that separate from how good it is. A popular stack can be the right stack. Ownership tells you how many other lineups win with you.

4. Read the simulations

Simulation results show a range in place of one score: a floor and a ceiling for players, and cash rate, wins and top-10 finishes for lineups. Compare like with like. A projection ranking and a cash-rate ranking answer different questions, so they will not agree, and they are not supposed to. If you changed a projection in step 2, run the simulation again first.

5. Build and review

For a full set of lineups, the field guide walks through it: load your contest entries CSV on the Lineups tab, open Portfolio, choose a model and build. Then check three things before you export:

The number built matches the number you asked for.
Player exposures are what you intended.
Every lineup is for the slate you selected.

Exporting from Splash Play does not enter a contest. You upload the finished file to DraftKings or FanDuel yourself and confirm it there.

Write down the open question

Before lock, write one line: what you are still waiting on and what you will do when it resolves. "If the teammate is out, re-check Hale and rerun." That line is the difference between reacting to late news in two minutes and rebuilding from nothing.

Where to start

The free weekly NFL DFS projections and Showdown breakdowns list the current week's projections by position. Squirt Squad covers matchup screens and projection matrices. Squirt Squad VIP adds SPAGS projections, exports and simulation results. Apex adds lineup browsing and the Portfolio Builder for NFL and MLB. Compare memberships. Projections and simulations are model outputs, not a promise of results.