DraftKings NFL Projections

By Splash Play Staff · A guide to reading the tools

DraftKings NFL projections are forecasts of how many fantasy points each player scores under DraftKings's scoring rules. They are not interchangeable with FanDuel numbers: DraftKings pays a full point per catch and adds yardage bonuses, while FanDuel pays half a point per catch and no bonuses. Use a projection built for the site and slate you are entering.

What changes on DraftKings

On DraftKings	Rule
Classic roster	QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, FLEX and DST under a $50,000 salary cap
Receptions	1 point each (full PPR)
Yardage bonuses	3 points at 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards
Single-game format	Showdown: one Captain and five Flex players. The Captain costs 1.5 times his salary and scores 1.5 times his points

Sites revise their rules. The rules page of the contest you enter is the authority.

Catches and yardage carry more weight here. High-target receivers and pass-catching backs project relatively better on DraftKings than on a half-PPR site, and a player near a bonus threshold has a little more ceiling.

The same player, two sites

Take a receiver who catches 10 passes for 110 yards and does not score. That line is worth 24 points on DraftKings (10 for the catches, 11 for the yards, 3 for the bonus) and 16 on FanDuel (5 for the catches, 11 for the yards). Same game, eight points apart. A projection has to be built for the site, and so does every comparison you make between two players.

How to read an NFL projection

Start with the role. Targets, carries and dropbacks drive the number. Check whether a player's expected workload has changed before you credit or blame the matchup.
Follow the injury through the team. When a starter sits, his work shows up in his teammates' projections. Several numbers on that team should move together.
Match the slate. A main-slate projection and a Showdown projection for the same player answer different questions. Set the slate first.
Note the time. A projection is a snapshot. Write down when you took it so you can tell an update from a mistake.

Where Splash Play's DraftKings numbers come from

SPAGS is Splash Play's projection board. In the NFL tool you choose DraftKings or FanDuel and the slate, and the board shows projections in that site's scoring with that site's salaries. How the projections and simulations work explains the layers behind the numbers, and the update-time guide covers when they change.

Get DraftKings NFL projections

Open the NFL tool, set the site to DraftKings and pick your slate. SPAGS projections and exports are part of Squirt Squad VIP and Apex; compare memberships. Projections are forecasts and do not promise a result.

Questions

What are DraftKings NFL projections?

DraftKings NFL projections are forecasts of each player's fantasy points under DraftKings's scoring rules, for one slate. They are the starting point for comparing players at different salaries.

Can I use FanDuel projections on DraftKings?

No. The scoring differs: DraftKings pays a full point per catch and adds yardage bonuses, while FanDuel pays half a point per catch and no bonuses. Salaries and roster rules differ too, so a player who is a value on one site may not be on the other.

How often do DraftKings NFL projections change?

Whenever the inputs change: injuries, roles, lineups and salaries. Note the time you took a number, and check again before lock.

Can I export the projections to an optimizer?

Yes. Exports are part of Squirt Squad VIP and Apex. Set the site and slate first, then follow the import guide, which walks through the file using the NFL tool.

Do projections predict what a player will score?

No. A projection is one expected score, and real results spread widely around it. Projections versus outcomes shows how to read the gap.

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