NBA DFS Simulator
An NBA DFS simulator plays a slate out many times and reports how often things happened: how often a lineup cashed, finished in the top 10 or won in the model. It answers a different question from a projection, which is a single expected score.
What a simulator does
A projection gives one expected score. A simulator replaces it with a range by playing the slate out many times, then counts what happened. For a player that shows a floor and a ceiling. For a lineup it shows how often it cashed, finished in the top 10 or won in the model.
What the results mean
| Column | What it measures |
|---|---|
| Cash% | How often the lineup finished in the money in the model |
| Top10% | How often the lineup had a top-10 finish in the model |
| ROI | Modeled return, given the entry fee and the payout structure |
| Sim% | Simulated lineup usage |
Every column has a unit, and most misreadings come from mixing them up. The column guide goes through each one.
What an NBA simulation has to get right
In the NBA the simulation is only as current as its minutes. A scratch an hour before lock changes a whole team's projections, and a simulation run before the news is describing a slate that no longer exists. Rerun after any news that changes minutes.
Where a simulation stops
A simulation is a model of a contest, and it assumes a field. A large run can still assume a field that looks nothing like your contest. More runs narrow the noise; they do not fix a wrong input. The sensitivity guide shows how much results move when the inputs do.
Run NBA simulations
Open the NBA tool and set DraftKings or FanDuel and the slate. Lineup results can be sorted three ways: cash frequency, pure upside, or a balance of the two. Simulation results are part of Squirt Squad VIP and Apex; compare memberships. They are model outputs and do not promise a finish or a payout.
Questions
What is an NBA DFS simulator?
It is a tool that plays a slate out many times in a model and reports how often things happened: how often a player reached a score, and how often a lineup cashed, finished in the top 10 or won.
What is the difference between a simulator and an optimizer?
An optimizer finds the lineup with the most projected points under the salary cap. A simulator tests lineups against a modeled field across many outcomes. One answers which lineup projects highest; the other answers how lineups tend to finish.
Is there a free NBA DFS simulator?
Splash Play's guides to reading simulations are free. The simulation results themselves are part of Squirt Squad VIP and Apex.
How many simulations are enough?
More runs reduce noise in the results, but they cannot correct a wrong projection or a field that does not match your contest. Check the inputs before you add runs.
Does a simulation tell me which lineup will win?
No. It reports how often something happened in a model under its assumptions. It is a way to compare lineups, not a forecast of a result.
More by site and sport
Projections by site
- DraftKings NFL projections
- DraftKings NBA projections
- DraftKings MLB projections
- FanDuel NFL projections
- FanDuel NBA projections
- FanDuel MLB projections
Ownership
Simulators
Lineup building
Showdown
- DraftKings Showdown optimizer
- NFL Showdown Captain Mode
- FanDuel single-game lineups
- Thursday, Sunday and Monday night Showdown
Contest types