DraftKings NBA Projections
DraftKings NBA projections are forecasts of how many fantasy points each player scores under DraftKings's scoring rules. They are not interchangeable with FanDuel numbers: the two sites score rebounds, steals, blocks and turnovers differently. Use a projection built for the site and slate you are entering.
What changes on DraftKings
| On DraftKings | Rule |
|---|---|
| Roster | 8 players under a $50,000 salary cap |
| Rebounds | 1.25 points each |
| Steals and blocks | 2 points each |
| Turnovers | 0.5 points off each |
| Bonuses | 0.5 for a made three and 1.5 for a double-double |
Sites revise their rules. The rules page of the contest you enter is the authority.
The bonuses reward players who fill several categories in one night, and a turnover costs half what it does on FanDuel, so high-usage creators hold their value.
The same player, two sites
Take a made-up line: 20 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 block and 3 turnovers. On DraftKings that is 46 fantasy points before any made-three bonus (20 + 12.5 + 7.5 + 4 + 2 - 1.5, plus 1.5 for the double-double). On FanDuel it is 45.5 (20 + 12 + 7.5 + 6 + 3 - 3). The totals are close here. Add two steals and FanDuel moves ahead; add two turnovers and DraftKings does. The stat mix decides which site likes a player more.
How to read an NBA projection
- Start with minutes. A projection is expected production in the minutes a player is expected to play. Ask whether the minutes still hold.
- Reprice the whole team after news. When a player is ruled out, his minutes and shots go to several teammates, not one.
- Check the salary against the news. Salaries are set before late scratches. The gap between an old price and a new role is where the value is.
- Rerun anything built on the old number. A simulation you ran before the news used the old projections.
Where Splash Play's DraftKings numbers come from
SPAGS is Splash Play's projection board. In the NBA tool you choose DraftKings or FanDuel and the slate, and the board shows projections in that site's scoring with that site's salaries. How the projections and simulations work explains the layers behind the numbers, and the update-time guide covers when they change.
Get DraftKings NBA projections
Open the NBA tool, set the site to DraftKings and pick your slate. SPAGS projections and exports are part of Squirt Squad VIP and Apex; compare memberships. Projections are forecasts and do not promise a result.
Questions
What are DraftKings NBA projections?
DraftKings NBA projections are forecasts of each player's fantasy points under DraftKings's scoring rules, for one slate. They are the starting point for comparing players at different salaries.
Can I use FanDuel projections on DraftKings?
No. The scoring differs: the two sites score rebounds, steals, blocks and turnovers differently. Salaries and roster rules differ too, so a player who is a value on one site may not be on the other.
How often do DraftKings NBA projections change?
Whenever the inputs change: injuries, roles, lineups and salaries. Note the time you took a number, and check again before lock.
Can I export the projections to an optimizer?
Yes. Exports are part of Squirt Squad VIP and Apex. Set the site and slate first, then follow the import guide, which walks through the file using the NFL tool.
Do projections predict what a player will score?
No. A projection is one expected score, and real results spread widely around it. Projections versus outcomes shows how to read the gap.
More by site and sport
Projections by site
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- DraftKings MLB projections
- FanDuel NFL projections
- FanDuel NBA projections
- FanDuel MLB projections
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- NFL Showdown Captain Mode
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